Tuesday, August 24-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most commodity markets are under selling pressure early Tuesday, being led lower by slumping European and U.S. stock markets, amid worries about world economic weakness in the coming months. There are compelling clues that the commodity markets will experience stiff headwinds in the coming months--with a major clue being the extremely low U.S. Treasury yields at present, which do hint at commodity price deflation.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,065.70 and then at Monday's high of 1,080.20. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,050.80 and then at the May low of 1,036.60. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,810.25 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,792.25 and then at 1,780.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,050 and then more stops just below support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,144 and then at 10,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 135 7/32 and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135 even and then at 134 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 7/32--lifetime high
134 24/32--second pivot point resistance
134 15/32--first pivot point resistance
134 11/32--previous day's high
134 7/32--previous day's close
134 3/32--pivot point
133 31/32--4-day moving average
133 26/32--first pivot point support
133 22/32--previous day's low
133 14/32--second pivot point support
133 1/32--9-day moving average
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
130 25/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 20/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 126.08.0 and then at 126.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 126.00.0 and then at the overnight low of 125.23.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 8/32--lifetime high
126 5/32--second pivot point resistance
125 30/32--first pivot point resistance
125 26/32--previous day's high
125 24/32--previous day's close
125 23/32--4-day moving average
125 22/32--9-day moving average
125 20/32--pivot point
125 13/32--first pivot point support
125 9/32--previous day's low
125 3/32--second pivot point support
124 27/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 9/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading. Bulls have regained upside bullish momentum as prices hit a fresh six-week high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 84.00 and then at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.73 and then at 83.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today and hit a fresh three-month low overnight. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $73.05 and then at $73.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key "outside markets" are in a bearish posture for the grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index is higher, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are lower. The generally weak posture of the commodity sector today also does not bode well for the grain market bulls.