JimWyckoff's Commentaries

Aug 25 2010

Grain Market Analysis

December corn futures closed down 12 1/4 cents at $4.30 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday and saw profit-taking pressure. No serious chart damage was inflicted yesterday, but the bulls do not want to see strong follow-through selling pressure on Wednesday that would likely produce significant near-term chart damage. The corn market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $4.38 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $4.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $4.15 1/4 and then at $4.10.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

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November soybeans closed down 6 1/2 cents at $9.99 a bushel yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday and hit a fresh four-week low. Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. The soybean bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is pushing and closing November prices above solid technical resistance at $10.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $9.80. First resistance for November soybeans is seen at yesterday's high of $10.08 1/4 and then at $10.15. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $9.93 3/4 and then at $9.87.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December soybean meal closed down $5.20 at $289.70 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday and hit a fresh two-week low on profit taking. Meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but faded a bit yesterday. An 11-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the last "reaction low" of $286.90. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the August high of $304.50. First resistance comes in at $292.50 and then at this week's high of $296.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $289.30 and then at $286.90.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December bean oil closed up 24 points at 40.06 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session high yesterday and hit a fresh four-week low early on. Short covering in a bear market was featured yesterday. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted recently to suggest more downside price pressure in the near term. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 38.50 cents. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 42.00 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 40.15 and then at this week's high of 40.47 cents. First support is seen at 39.50 cents and then at yesterday's low of 39.50 cents.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 17 3/4 cents at $7.07 3/4 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. Trading has turned choppy recently. Serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently to suggest a market top is in place in wheat. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid resistance at $7.68 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $6.77 1/2. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $7.26 1/4 and then at $7.32. First support lies at $7.00 and then at $6.77 1/2.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 16 cents at $7.15 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range yesterday. Trading has turned choppy recently. It's still likely the HRW market has put in a near-term top. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.64 1/2. The bears' next downside objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $6.45. First resistance is seen at yesterday's high of $7.23 and then at this week's high of $7.35. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $7.07 and then at $7.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December oats closed down 10 1/2 cents at $2.74 1/2 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and hit a fresh four-week low. Oats bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls did fade yesterday and need to show fresh power soon. Prices are now in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears' next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2.65. Bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.90. First support lies at the August low of $2.73 and then at$2.70. First resistance is seen at $2.77 1/4 and then at $2.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.



Tags: corn | soybeans | wheat | grains | futures
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