Wednesday, August 25-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

***NOTE: There will be no morning report from me on Thursday, as I will be traveling most of the day.

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Tuesday's U.S. existing home sales report that showed a very sharp decline in sales in July is yet another warning that the next few months could see some strong headwinds for the U.S. economy and for the U.S. stock market. The U.S. stock indexes will continue to be the major "outside market" for which many other markets will track very closely.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,055.50 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,065.70. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday's low of 1,044.30 and then at the May low of 1,036.60. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,781.50 and then at 1,790.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday's low of 1,766.00 and then at 1,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,000 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 9,975. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 10,090 and then at 10,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight contract high of 136 even and then at 136 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 14/32 and then at 135 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

137 7/32--second pivot point resistance
136 17/32--first pivot point resistance
136 1/32--lifetime high
136 1/32--previous day's high
135 26/32--previous day's close
135 10/32--pivot point
134 20/32--first pivot point support
134 18/32--4-day moving average
134 4/32--previous day's low
133 16/32--9-day moving average
133 13/32--second pivot point support
132 17/32--Previous Month's high
131 8/32--18-day moving average
125 7/32--previous month's low
123 27/32--100-day moving average
111 1/32--lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 126.24.0 and then at 127.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 126.06.5 and then at 126.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

SEPTEMBER U.S. T-Notes

127 11/32--second pivot point resistance
126 28/32--first pivot point resistance
126 24/32--lifetime high
126 24/32--previous day's high
126 14/32--previous day's close
126 10/32--pivot point
125 29/32--4-day moving average
125 27/32--first pivot point support
125 25/32--9-day moving average
125 23/32--previous day's low
125 9/32--second pivot point support
125 1/32--18-day moving average
123 28/32--previous month's high
121 14/32--previous month's low
120 13/32--100-day moving average
110 13/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. Bulls still have some upside bullish momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 84.00 and then at 84.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.40 and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today as prices hit a fresh three-month low on Tuesday. Bears still have downside near-term technical momentum. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then at the overnight high of $72.37. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $71.32 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were steady to firmer in overnight trading. The markets saw a corrective bounce from selling pressure on Tuesday. The grain market bulls are fading. The key "outside markets" are in a mildly bearish posture for the grains this morning: the U.S. dollar index is firmer, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower.