Monday, August 30-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Financial, stock and currency market traders this week are awaiting what will likely be the most market-sensitive piece of economic data this week: Friday's U.S. jobs report. Look for more subdued trading in those markets, heading into Friday morning's jobs report. It will also likely be an extra quiet trading week in many markets this week, as U.S. traders await the final summer holiday weekend, as Labor Day is next Monday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,072.50 and then at 1,085.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,050.00 and then at last week's low of 1,037.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,805.50 and then at 1,820.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,780.00 and then at 1,766.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,100 and then more stops just below support at 10,080. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday's high of 10,145 and then at 10,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133 even and then at 133 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132 16/32 and then at 132 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

136 1/32--second pivot point resistance
135 19/32--lifetime high
135 1/32--previous day's high
134 6/32--first pivot point resistance
133 25/32--4-day moving average
133 5/32--pivot point
132 31/32--9-day moving average
132 10/32--previous day's close
132 5/32--previous day's low
131 10/32--first pivot point support
130 31/32--18-day moving average
130 9/32--second pivot point support
127 26/32--Previous Month's high
123 27/32--previous month's low
123 4/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 124.28.0 and then at 125.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 124.16.0 and then at 124.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 3/32--second pivot point resistance
126 2/32--lifetime high
125 19/32--previous day's high
125 7/32--first pivot point resistance
125 4/32--4-day moving average
124 30/32--9-day moving average
124 23/32--pivot point
124 16/32--18-day moving average
124 11/32--previous day's close
124 7/32--previous day's low
123 27/32--first pivot point support
123 11/32--second pivot point support
122 31/32--previous month's high
120 17/32--previous month's low
119 20/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.50 and then at last week's high of 83.96. Shorter-term support is seen at 83.00 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today on a corrective pullback from strong gains scored late last week. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then at the overnight high of $75.58. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.50 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The corn and soybean market bulls have just recently gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum, while wheat continues to trade in a choppy and sideways to lower fashion.