Tuesday, August 31-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Today is the last trading day of the month, which does make today technically more significant. Monthly high or low closes in a market are very technically significant. Also, fund managers like to even up positions before the end of the month, which could make for a more active trading session. Still, it's the unofficial last week of summer in the U.S. and Europe, and many traders are still enjoying the last vestiges of their summertime mode. Traders of many markets are also awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,047.70 and then at 1,060.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,030.00 and then at 1,020.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,773.50 and then at 1,780.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week's low of 1,744.00 and then at 1,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,900 and then more stops just below support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,000 and then at 10,050. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 135 19/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 134 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
136 --second pivot point resistance
135 6/32--first pivot point resistance
134 14/32--previous day's high
134 11/32--previous day's close
133 25/32--4-day moving average
133 19/32--pivot point
133 10/32--9-day moving average
132 25/32--first pivot point support
132 1/32--previous day's low
131 13/32--18-day moving average
131 6/32--second pivot point support
127 26/32--Previous Month's high
123 27/32--previous month's low
123 11/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 126.02.5 and then at 126.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 125.09.0 and then at 125.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 13/32--second pivot point resistance
126 2/32--lifetime high
125 28/32--first pivot point resistance
125 14/32--previous day's high
125 11/32--previous day's close
125 2/32--4-day moving average
125 --9-day moving average
124 29/32--pivot point
124 21/32--18-day moving average
124 12/32--first pivot point support
123 30/32--previous day's low
123 13/32--second pivot point support
122 31/32--previous month's high
120 17/32--previous month's low
119 24/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 83.70 and then at last week's high of 83.96. Shorter-term support is seen at 83.25 and then at 83.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $74.00 and then at the overnight high of $74.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were mostly lower in overnight trading. Corn and wheat saw a corrective pullback from Monday's gains. The corn and soybean market bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum, while wheat continues to trade in a choppy and sideways. Traders will continue to focus on U.S. export demand and the U.S. soybean and corn crop early harvest progress. Both of those fundamentals are favoring the bulls at present, as demand has been rock-solid and early harvest reports have come in at the lower end of expectations.