Wednesday, September 1-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The first trading day of the month today finds investor risk appetite increasing, as stock and commodity markets are posting good gains, while the U.S. Treasury bonds and notes are seeing weaker prices. With so many expecting the next two months to be turbulent for the stock and financial markets, that does argue that the headwinds may not be so bad. This Friday's U.S. jobs report, and the markets' reaction to it, could well set the tone for trading action during the next two months.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,072.50 and then at 1,080.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,050.90 and then at 1,040.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,794.50 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,780.00 and then at the overnight low of 1,770.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,000 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday's low of 9,932. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week's high of 10,130 and then at 10,145. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 135 even and then at this week's high of 135 7/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 even and then at 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 26/32--second pivot point resistance
135 19/32--lifetime high
135 19/32--Previous Month's high
135 14/32--first pivot point resistance
135 7/32--previous day's high
135 3/32--previous day's close
134 28/32--pivot point
134 16/32--first pivot point support
134 9/32--previous day's low
134 1/32--4-day moving average
133 30/32--second pivot point support
133 20/32--9-day moving average
131 27/32--18-day moving average
126 7/32--previous month's low
123 18/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 125.20.0 and then at the contract high of 126.02.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 125.00.0 and then at 124.16.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 3/32--second pivot point resistance
126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 28/32--first pivot point resistance
125 26/32--previous day's high
125 20/32--previous day's close
125 18/32--pivot point
125 11/32--first pivot point support
125 9/32--previous day's low
125 5/32--4-day moving average
125 5/32--9-day moving average
125 1/32--second pivot point support
124 25/32--18-day moving average
122 16/32--previous month's low
119 28/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.25 and then at the overnight high of 83.53. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.83 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today, on a corrective bounce from big losses Tuesday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $73.00 and then at $73.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at the overnight low of $71.67. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The corn bulls have good upside near-term technical momentum, while soybeans have turned choppy and wheat continues to trade choppy and sideways. Traders will continue to focus on U.S. export demand and the U.S. soybean and corn crop early harvest progress. Both of those fundamentals are favoring the bulls at present, as demand has been rock-solid and early harvest reports have come in at the lower end of expectations.