Thursday, September 2-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Gold prices have been trending higher for the past six weeks and set a fresh two-month high on Wednesday. It's my bias that in the coming weeks gold futures prices will establish a new all-time record high. The present record high is $1,270.60 an ounce for December Comex futures. Gold continues to be viewed by investors worldwide as a safe-haven investment asset.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,090.00 and then at 1,098.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,072.50 and then at 1,060.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday's high of 1,825.00 and then at 1,842.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,813.00 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,250 and then more stops just below support at 10,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,300 and then at 10,350. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 22/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 even and then at 132 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
136 12/32--second pivot point resistance
135 19/32--Previous Month's
135 4/32--previous day's high
134 26/32--first pivot point resistance
133 22/32--4-day moving average
133 21/32--9-day moving average
133 18/32--pivot point
133 8/32--previous day's close
132 10/32--previous day's low
132 4/32--18-day moving average
132 --first pivot point support
130 24/32--second pivot point support
126 7/32--previous month's low
123 24/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 125.00.0 and then at 125.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 124.18.5 and then at 124.12.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 6/32--second pivot point resistance
126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 20/32--previous day's high
125 17/32--first pivot point resistance
125 2/32--9-day moving average
125 1/32--4-day moving average
124 30/32--pivot point
124 27/32--previous day's close
124 27/32--18-day moving average
124 12/32--previous day's low
124 9/32--first pivot point support
123 22/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
120 --100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.00 and then at 83.25. Shorter-term support is seen at this week's low of 82.57 and then at 82.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading weaker early today. Trading has turned very choppy recently. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $74.19 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning's USDA weekly export sales report. Strong U.S. export demand has been seen recently, and his helping boost grain futures prices. The corn bulls have good upside near-term technical momentum, while soybeans have turned choppy and wheat continues to trade choppy and sideways.