Wednesday, September 8-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Recent price action has seen the crude oil market become decoupled from many other commodity markets. Cotton, coffee, the grains, sugar, gold and silver are all in solid bull market runs, while crude oil languishes in choppy trading and well off its summertime high. This suggests the commodity markets are trading more on their own individual supply and demand fundamentals and with less of a "herd mentality" that occurred during the major commodity market bull run in 2008. The aforementioned commodity markets that are in bull runs do hint that the downside in crude oil is probably limited, what with crude already well down from its summertime high.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,100.00 and then at Tuesday's high of 1,107.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,086.70 and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Tuesday's high of 1,878.00 and then at 1,890.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,852.25 and then at 1,834.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday's low of 10,325 and then more stops just below support at 10,300. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 10,405 and then at last week's high of 10,440. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 12/32 and then at 133 22/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132 16/32 and then at 132 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 19/32--Previous Month's high
134 9/32--second pivot point resistance
133 21/32--first pivot point resistance
133 11/32--9-day moving average
133 2/32--previous day's high
133 --previous day's close
132 23/32--18-day moving average
132 18/32--4-day moving average
132 13/32--pivot point
131 25/32--first pivot point support
131 6/32--previous day's low
130 17/32--second pivot point support
126 7/32--previous month's low
124 10/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 125.03.5 and then at 125.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 124.16.0 and then at 124.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 19/32--second pivot point resistance
125 7/32--first pivot point resistance
124 29/32--18-day moving average
124 28/32--9-day moving average
124 28/32--previous day's high
124 27/32--previous day's close
124 18/32--4-day moving average
124 16/32--pivot point
124 4/32--first pivot point support
123 25/32--previous day's low
123 13/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
120 10/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading, on a corrective pullback from solid gains on Tuesday. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday's high of 83.29 and then at 83.53. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.91 and then at Tuesday's low of 82.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Trading has turned choppy recently. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Tuesday's high of $74.63 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.37 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading, as the markets are pausing following recent gains. The grain market bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum, led by the corn market.