Thursday, September 9-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It's still early September, but so far the stock market has held up fairly well in what is historically a poor-performing month (along with October) for the stock indexes. My bias is that if the stock indexes can hold up well through next week, then they will also likely hold up fairly well during following next six weeks. Any time the majority of traders and investors expect a market to perform a certain way during a certain timeframe, it's a decent bet it won't happen.--Jim.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,107.10 and then at the August high of 1,127.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,087.50 and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday's high of 1,888.00 and then at 1,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,872.75 and then at Wednesday's low of 1,852.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,325 and then more stops just below support at 10,300. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,405 and then at last week's high of 10,440. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132 even and then at the overnight high of 132 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131 16/32 and then at 131 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds

135 19/32--lifetime high
135 19/32--Previous Month's high set
134 --second pivot point resistance
133 12/32--previous day's high
133 5/32--9-day moving average
133 4/32--first pivot point resistance
132 27/32--18-day moving average
132 15/32--pivot point
132 9/32--4-day moving average
132 7/32--previous day's close
131 27/32--previous day's low
131 19/32--first pivot point support
130 30/32--second pivot point support
126 7/32--previous month's low
124 16/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 124.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 124.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 124.00.0 and then at 123.20.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes

126 2/32--lifetime high
126 2/32--previous month's high
125 13/32--second pivot point resistance
125 3/32--previous day's high
124 29/32--first pivot point resistance
124 29/32--18-day moving average
124 26/32--9-day moving average
124 20/32--4-day moving average
124 20/32--pivot point
124 14/32--previous day's close
124 10/32--previous day's low
124 4/32--first pivot point support
123 27/32--second pivot point support
122 16/32--previous month's low
120 13/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading. Prices have been trading sideways for the past four weeks. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week's high of 83.29 and then at 83.53. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.82 and then at this week's low of 82.60. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Trading has turned choppy recently. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.58 and then at $76.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.60 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading, on a profit-taking pullback from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Trading may be quieter today, ahead of Friday morning's USDA supply and demand and crop production report.