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Be Quiet and Just Watch
The weather here is just about as good as it gets. It is so good it feeds my optimism about the direction of the stock markets. Okay, maybe it is more than the weather that spurs my optimism. Perhaps, it is the VIX and VXN dropping below 30 for the first time since last August. Perhaps it is the price of oil reflecting optimism that the global economy is hitting bottom. Maybe it is my belief that, after some churning in the mud, the global economy will begin to float upward again, perhaps as early as October. You know, it could also be my recent plays in homebuilding and financial stocks have paid out nicely. Whatever the reason, I am more optimistic today the economy has hit bottom than I have been, well, in quite some time. Oh, oh, oh … Sorry, a beautifully orange grosbeak just flew past me … Anyway, I am opening up my trading again after a long period of watching, just watching, much I like I do with the birds flying in and out of the Blue and Live Oak trees surrounding me. When I watch the birds carefully, I often see things I normally don’t see, like that richly colored grosbeak that flew past a moment ago. I learn about their flying patterns, feeding habits, and nesting choices. After awhile, the birds that I know become somewhat predictable. This past 10 months of economic and market turmoil allowed me to see things I normally didn’t in the markets. I am now a better student of trading because I really pay attention, and the collapse of it all made this so. Although no one, and I repeat, no one, can consistently predict market movement, I am now learning that watching certain markets in volatile times points up patterns in both the overall markets, and with those markets in particular. Like the birds I now know well, the trick is to sit quietly and just watch.
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