JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Tuesday, February 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
NOTE: I had internet problems this morning. Thus, the later report, which was written by my friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll enjoy and benefit from it, too.--Jim
The STOCK INDEXES & MARKETS
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI arebearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's decline, the 25% retracement level of theAugust-January rally crossing at 2197.43 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 2334.50 would confirm that ashort-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2292.80. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 2334.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2248.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 2197.43. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 14.25 pts. at 2294.25 as of 5:45 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.The March S&P 500 index was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's decline, the August-November uptrend line crossing near 1261.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1299.40. Second resistance is the July 2008 highcrossing at 1313.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1262.60. Second support is the August-November uptrend line crossing near 1261.90.The March S&P 500 Index was up 6.50 pts. at 1288.90 as of 5:47 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. March needs to close above the reaction high crossing at 122-07 or below December's low crossing at 118-21 to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range andpoint the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122-07. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 121-17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 119-06. Second support is December's low crossing at 118-21.
ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Friday's low. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends therally off last Friday's low, January's high crossing at 93.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.05would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at93.46. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 89.05. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51.
CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearishsignaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 76.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.25. First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.41. Second support is November's low crossing at 76.16.
GRAINS
March corn was fractionally lower overnight due to light profit taking while at the same time extending the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the reaction low crossing at 5.95. If March renews this winter'srally, the 87% retracement level of the 2008-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 7.19 1/4 is the next upside target. Firstresistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.67. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-decline on the weekly continuation chartcrossing at 7.19 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.37. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.95.March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when theday session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a double top with last August's high might beforming. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extendsthe aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2010-decline crossing at 8.80 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 8.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2010-decline crossing at 8.80 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.30 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.05 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were fractionally higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five weeks. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 14.34 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.55 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline to mark a mid-winter low, which is due during February. First resistance is January's high crossing at 14.32 1/2. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 14.34 1/2. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 13.64 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing near 13.55 1/4.
