JimWyckoff's Commentaries
Friday, April 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Today is another extra important trading day. It's the first day of the month and of the quarter. That means there could be fresh "fund" money allocated to various markets, pumping up the volume and possibly the volatility in those markets. The U.S. jobs report is also out today, which should also make for some more active trading.--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week's high of 1,327.50 and then at March high of 1,336.20 and then at the February high of 1,342.80. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,320.80 and then at 1,314.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,360.00 and then at 2,370.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,335.50 and then at 2,320.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 12,260 and then more stops just below support at 12,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday's high of 12,320 and then at 12,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120 6/32 and then at 120 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 119 19/32 and then at 119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
JUNE U.S. T-Bonds
132 14/32--lifetime high
123 22/32--Previous Month's high
121 14/32--second pivot point resistance
120 31/32--previous day's high
120 22/32--18-day moving average
120 22/32--first pivot point resistance
120 19/32--9-day moving average
120 10/32--100-day moving average
120 6/32--pivot point
120 2/32--4-day moving average
119 29/32--previous day's close
119 23/32--previous day's low
119 14/32--first pivot point support
118 30/32--second pivot point support
118 5/32--previous month's low
115 7/32--lifetime low
June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 118.26.5 and then at 119.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week's low of 118.19.0 and then at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
JUNE U.S. T-Notes
126 10/32--lifetime high
121 26/32--previous month's high
119 24/32--100-day moving average
119 23/32--second pivot point resistance
119 23/32--18-day moving average
119 15/32--previous day's high
119 13/32--9-day moving average
119 9/32--first pivot point resistance
119 --pivot point
118 31/32--4-day moving average
118 26/32--previous day's close
118 24/32--previous day's low
118 18/32--first pivot point support
118 9/32--second pivot point support
117 18/32--previous month's low
109 6/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading, on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 76.39 and then at this week's high of 76.70. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.21 and then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher in early trading today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained more upside momentum this week. In May crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $107.65 and then at the March high of $108.25. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $106.58 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed in overnight trading. Corn sharply extended its gains with 35-plus cent gains overnight. Meantime, wheat and soybean futures prices were slightly lower. Look for more active trading in the grains today, as traders continue to digest the bullish USDA reports that were issued Thursday morning. Grain market traders will still keep an eye on the key "outside markets"--the U.S. dollar index, crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes. Weather in the U.S. Midwest will become a major factor in the grain markets and will take center stage after the USDA report is digested by traders.
