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Trading GBP/USD using VantagePoint SW
Greetings all
Things are pretty quiet in this Forum!.... so I wanted to see if we can get it movin, with some info I've been posting on ForexFactory recently... I wanted to give things a try over here, since after all, this is "Where Traders Migrate", right?!
In the first couple posts I will repeat info I've posted on ForexFactory over the past couple months... these will be descriptions of a trading method I use to trade the GBP/USD, relying on VantagePoint, V8.0... it has been a very successful method. After posting info on the method, I will put up info on recent trades, and then I want to start posting trade entries & results 'live'.
If you're a VP user already -- maybe something I say here will be useful. Maybe something I say here will motivate you to add your own thoughts or approaches or insights to the discussion. That's all good! Maybe this will motivate others to start up similar Threads in this Forum. Any or all of the above -- would be very cool!
If you're not currently a VP user -- some or much of what we say here may be hard to follow, but you might also find it interesting to compare how VP's indicators and trade signals compare with other approaches. I know I do!
So, here we go!...
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This is trade example #1
I suggest you print out the chart in the attached PDF & these notes, and study thru them. This is a really textbook VantagePoint EZCruise trade
Indicator Key P3EMA+1 -- light blue PNI -- brown PStr -- yellow PTSDiff -- orange PTMDiff -- blue PHigh -- dark grey PLow -- dark grey
Number-coded Events -- see chart #1 -- Data analysis evening 21Nov08 indicates trade entry signal, long, due to: - Candle closed 10 pips above the P3EMA+1. - PNI changed frpm 0 to 1. - All other VP indicators rising. - Stop loss set at day?s low minus 12 pips = 1.4705 ==> 21Nov was a Friday -- trade entered at open on Sunday evening 23Nov @ 1.4898 + spread = 1.4902
#2 -- Data analysis evening 24Nov indicates: - Profit target #1 (100 pips) & profit target #2 (200 pips) achieved - Therefore, stop loss should be moved to BE or PLow, whichever is higher - PLow for 25Nov is 1.4960, which is higher than BE of 1.4902 ==> Set stop loss at 1.4960
#3 -- Data analysis evening 25Nov indicates: ==> Move stop loss to next day PLow, 1.5157
#4 -- Data analysis evening 26Nov indicates:
Basic actions: ==> Move stop loss to next day PLow, 1.5189
Advanced actions: - note inside day, enlarged hanging man type candle -- possible topping/reversal signal - note PStr has changed directions and has crossed below PTSDiff and PTMDiff - note PTSDiff has changed directions and has crossed below PTMDiff ~~ although these are VP signals the trend is weakening, PTMDiff is still climbing & PNI is still 1.0, ~~
==> Conservative choice: exit the trade; or
==> Less conservative choice: exit half the position; or
==> Optimistic choice: maintain the position, continue adjusting PLow each day (assume here we took the Basic Action listed above, and maintained the full position)
#5 -- Data analysis evening 28Nov indicates: - Stop loss @ 1.5313 hit, closing 3rd leg of the trade with 411 pip profit - Notice: -- more of a true hanging man candle, but closed 7 pips above PEMA3+1 -- all VP indicators declining, except PNI still 1.0 ==> No new trade at this time.
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
(A) Interestingly enough -- on the entry day signaled by VP for this trade (21Nov08) -- the MA crossover system I also follow for comparison -- did not signal an entry.
+ On the day prior to the VP entry (i.e., 20Nov08), the MA crossover system I follow signaled a short entry... and notice that all VP indicators signal a short entry ~EXCEPT~ the PTMDiff, which was actually climbing.-- hence no trade for EZCruise.
[PTMDiff is unfortunately obscured 18-20Nov by the VP Copyright notice in this happy snap (and NO, this is not a conspiracy) - check it out in the actual SW and you will see that the PTMDiff is clearly rising]
Notice 20Nov was a very large bearish candle, following a shooting star candle on 19Nov -- this combination, in addition to the MA crossover, would?ve prompted most traders to enter, with a great deal of confidence -- but VP and the EZCruise Method kept us out of the trade, and saved us from a loss on the 21st!
(B) One key point about the trailing stops should be mentioned -- as you are trailing the stop with PHigh or PLow, only adjust the stop one day to the next so that it is the same, or tighter -- never wider -- even if PHigh or PLow go wider. For example, in a long trade, if the forecast PLow for tomorrow is lower than today's PLow -- just leave the stop set at today's PLow.
Stay tuned for more examples!...
On ForexFactory, I was asked by another user if I agreed that VantagePoint signaled an entry on the evening of 31Dec08 -- I replied to that question, & posted a chart: ====================================================
You betcha. There is indeed an EZCruise entry signaled the evening of 31Dec08. I'm attaching a snap from VantagePoint as of evening 2Jan09....
A big ugly black candle, almost what we could call a 'high wave candle'... (meaning "the market is confused", to quote Steve Nison)... was formed on 2Jan.
If somehow you could've entered at the close on 31Dec... you would've likely achieved the 100 & 200 pip targets even on that bearish high wave day on 2Jan.... which would've called for you to move your SL to BE, which you would not be able to do, because the close on 2 Jan is lower than your entry -- in that case - I normally close out & take the loss on the 3rd leg.... still an overall net profit summing up results from all 3 legs however....
But, in reality, we couldn't enter on 31Dec due to the New Year's Holiday, & had to wait to enter at the market open on 2Jan... the market gapped up then created that 'big black ugly high wave candle'.. but didn't hit our SL, which was 'safely' 12 pips below the 31Dec low....
And we see that the open on 2Jan is ~66pips above the 31Dec close... What do we do for profit targets in this situation, since that's 2/3rds of the way to our original first profit target??
The conservative approach: set your targets equal to 100 & 200 pips above the 31Dec close, with the 3rd leg as a 'runner', as usual....
The optimistic approach: set your targets to 100 & 200 pips above the 2Jan entry, with the 3rd leg as a 'runner', as usual....
A possible hybrid: set 1st target to 100 pips above 2Jan open... set 2nd target to 200 pips above 31Dec close, with the 3rd leg as a 'runner' as usual...
So, we hang on, & as of this writing, 1300 on 5Jan (next trading day after 2Jan), the GBPUSD pair is rebounding, and has made an intraday high of 1.4666 (on IBFX anyway)...
It will be interesting to see how this one pans out
Image Attachment:
We entered GBPUSD long at the open on 2Jan09, based on the EZCruise Method analysis using VantagePoint on the evening of 31Dec08...
initial SL was placed 12pips below the low on 31Dec...
a 100pip target based on the 2Jan entry was hit later the same day...
a 200pip target based on the 2Jan entry was hit 2 trading days later, on 6Jan, and we began using the predicted PLow as the SL on 7Jan....
At the close on 9Jan we see the trend appears to be breaking down, because:
-- the pair formed an 'inside day' doji candle, and
-- the PStr and PTSDiff indicators have crossed below the PTMDiff indicator and are headed down...
-- plus PHigh and PLow for the next day are also heading down...
At this point, the purest form of the Easy Cruise Method is to maintain the position and hold the SL at the 9Jan PLow, since the PLow predicted for the next trading day is lower than the 9Jan PLow. We realize it ~is possible the trend will resume (see the bars formed on 12Dec & 24Dec for examples)...
More conservative actions would be to
-- close out the position or
-- close 1/2 the position and/or
-- move the SL to 12pips below the 9Jan low
If we choose to close out the trade completely at this point and wait for another entry signal, the 3rd leg of the trade has gone almost 500pips from the entry on 2Jan... if we hold the position and get hit at our current SL at the current PLow, we are still looking at basically 400pips on the 3rd leg... Cool!
I call that a "Happy New Year" result! Hope you've been along for the ride.
Cheers and Good Hunting
Image Attachment:
Following the 2 Jan trade stopped out 12 Jan (discussed above, closed out for a total of 675pips)...
here are the trades up through 24Feb09 on GBP/USD using the EZCruise method:
(note, entry signals were provided by VantagePoint the evening of the day prior to the entry date listed below)
13 Jan short +100, +200, +84 = 384 21 Jan short +100, +200, -59 = 241 27 Jan long +100, +200, +142 = 442 6 Feb long +100, +200, +105 = 405 11 Feb short +100, +200, +29 = 329 20 Feb long -36x3 = -108 23 Feb long +100, +200, 0 = 300
Total: 1993 pips -- 6 winners out of 7 trades (85%)
(January initiated trades = 1442pips, including the 2Jan trade) (February initiated trades thus far = 521pips)
As the daily ranges have been decreasing a bit... staying conservative, more pips can be gained by closing 1/3 the position at 100pips profit.. and 2/3 the position at 200pips profit... This would've yielded 2,892 pips via the trades listed above, an increase of 900 pips...
Also, another practical note: when entering a trade... if by the time you finish your VP analysis after the trading day... price has moved away from the closing price, "in the wrong direction", consider placing a limit order to enter at the analysis day's closing price or better... This usually works -- take a look at your hourly charts... and you will see that one day's closing price.. is usually visited again early the following day.
Keep Cruisin & good trading
p.s. as of 00:47GMT 26Feb09, I have entered GBPUSD short based on the EZCruise method...
The short GBP/USD trade opened on 26Feb was successful.
The 100pip profit target was hit on the 27Feb, and the 200pip target was hit on 2March
As mentioned in the previous post, I opted to target 1/3rd the position at the 100pip level, and 2/3rds the position at the 200pip level; That made the total for this trade 100+200+200 = 500pips, and brought the total for February to over 1,000pips.
The classic EZCruise Method would have kept you in short with 1/3rd the position until 4Mar09, when the SL would've been hit, yielding only 18pips on the 3rd leg.
This result points out again, if you choose to hang on with the 3rd leg to see where the move goes beyond 200pips -- it can be very advantageous to opt to close out part or all of the 3rd leg when trend reversal signals are formed, as they did on 3March, with the weak inside day dojii and the reversal of VantagePoint's 'strength' and 'predicted short term trend difference' indicators.
As of this writing, 8Mar09, I am waiting for the next entry signal from VantagePoint & the EZCruise method..
Good hunting, Happy Cruisin!
Ok, here's a 'live trade'...
I've entered GBPUSD short at 1.3786 at 23:57Z 09Mar09, based on VantagePoint EZCruise signals at EOD.
I'm a bit concerned about the eventual outcome of this trade due to the large range of today's movement (over 400pips).. but all the indicators line up, so, we take the trade.
I've used 110% of the ATR(10) to set my stop loss 256 pips from the entry (252 + 4pips spread)... and have set take profit targets at 100 & 200 pips...
It will be interesting to see how this one pans out!
I've received a couple questions concerning 'trade sizing', so I'm posting an example here....
Lets say... your account balance is $10,000.... the trade you want to place has a stop loss 200pips away from the entry point... and, you want to execute 3 legs in the trade.... with a maximum risk to your account for this trade of 2%....
Question: how many lots should each trade leg be composed of?
Answer: 2% of $10,000 is $200... this is the maximum you are willing to lose, if all 3 legs hit the original stop loss.... this is what I call your 'risk amount'...
...the risk amount divided by the stoploss size gives us our total lot size: $200 divided by 200pips is 1 ($ per pip)..
....if you were trading only one leg on this trade, you would then use 1 mini lot.... but since we are using 3 'legs', we have to divide this 1 mini lot into 3 parts... so, each leg should be 0.33 mini lots.... this means each pip, on each leg, is worth 33cents.
The result of this is that each leg that hits the original 200pip stop loss would result in a loss of $66 (200pips x 0.33)... or a total of $198 if all three legs hit the original stop loss (not $200 exactly, due to rounding)
Hopefully this clears up for everyone the 'theory' and 'mechanics' of how I size a trade across the multiple legs...
Cheers, More to follow...
Greetings all... Glad you made it in Pintol! Hey LaneMen!!
The short trade entered at EOD on 09March09 was stopped out, as feared.
If you were really being gun shy on that one, you might have closed out in profit at EOD on 10March, due to the classic inverted hammer that formed that day. If you hung on, you should have reached the 100pip profit target on the first leg on the 11th, but then got stopped out on the remainder on the 13th or today (the 16th), depending on where you set your stop (i.e., either at {110% of the ATR(10)+spread}, or {12pips+spread} above the entry day high).
Interestingly enough, an entry signal to go long formed on 12March. This is unusual for the GBPUSD pair, (forming a reverse entry signal before an ongoing trade has concluded) but if you took the trade, you should have hit both the 100 & 200pip targets on the 13th & the 16th, respectively... hence the SL should now be set at tomorrow's (the 17th) PLow, which is above the entry point... this means life is good, we're EZCruisin the 3rd leg!
So, hang in everybody, we'll see what happens next... I'll post a chart showing all this action shortly... Cheers
Greetings all.. Here are the charts showing the 2 trades described above...
As of this writing, the long trade entered 12Mar09 is hanging in there, hasn't hit the trailing SL even though the pair has been moving down today
Image Attachment:
Greetings all....
Well... today the GBP dropped far enough to hit and continue down thru our trailing stop at VantagePoint's PLow for the day.... and, thanks to the Fed announcement in the afternoon -- rebounded almost 500 pips above the low of the day.
Even so, we completed the trade from 03/12/09 with 3 profitable legs! 100pips on leg 1; 200pips on leg2; and depending on how you handled leg3, either 200pips (if you opted to close it with leg2); about 100pips (if you opted to close it based on yesterday's spinning top & VP indications; or around 50pips (if you got taken out with the SL today). All in all, not a bad few days work
2 observations:
(1) Yesterday's candle was an inside day spinning top.... in addition to that sign of weakness, ("the market is losing its breath", "the market is tired", as Steve Nison would say) VP's PStr had already crossed beneath the PTSDiff, and yesterday it headed down noticeably, and the PTSDiff paralleled it, i.e., both coinciding with the weak candle... PStr actually crossed below the PTMDiff, but PTSDiff did not...
As I've mentioned previously, these are all indications of a weakening trend (even more convincing when PTSDiff also crosses below PTMDiff, which it did not do in this case)
-- and so when we encounter these indications... depending on your style, and other insights or expectations you have about near term influences on the pair.... you may want to close out the trade at that point; close a portion of it at that point; or hang on --
(2) Today's candle is huge, gargantuan in fact, compared to its neighbors!... and the EZCruise method is signaling an entry...
If you take a look at other large move days on the GBPUSD, you will see that it is pretty typical for the pair to retrace a bit the next day, before resuming the trend direction...
Based on that, and looking at a support & resistance area that has been occuring in the area around 1.4230 to 1.4200 since January of this year... and looking at the 23% and 38% retracement points on today's candle...
I am placing a limit order to 'buy' at 1.4218 (i.e., 1.4214+spread)... and used 110% of today's ATR(10) to place a stop 276pips from the entry.. with the standard EZCruise 3legged trade targets... Ok, so now we will see how the market behaves, "post Fed"!...
I'll post a chart later... and as I always say, "it will be interesting to see how this one pans out"!
Stay loose, & cruise EZ! Cheers
Well....
As expected, the GBPUSD retraced a good bit from the close on 18Mar09, and fortunately picked up my entry orders at 1.4218 -- (the retracement was actually about 125 pips, to a little more than a 25% retracement)
Today (19th) was another very strong 'up day' for the pair, as forecasted by VantagePoint at the close on the 18th. Even if you entered at the closing price on the 18th, you should have closed out leg1 & leg2 today at 100 & 200pips profit... and have your SL now set at VP's PLow for tomorrow, or your entry price, whichever is higher.... Either way, we're Cruisin now, we've netted 300 pips, and the 3rd leg will close at break even or better. That's pretty sweet.
I'm pleasantly surprised this trade went this well, this quickly. Hope you got to enjoy it also!
Cheers Tango
Greetings All
A chart showing the last 2 trades is attached... the 3rd leg of the trade entered 19March is still hanging in there, altho it looks like we have another 'spinning top' day today, with the pair hanging out right around 1.4500.....
For those who might read this thread 'a long time from now'.. I want to point out that on 17March we had signs of the trend weakening - a spinning top, + the VP indicators PStr & PTSDiff had reversed course & were heading down, with PStr crossed below PTMDiff...
On 18 March, we had the FOMC announcement... which drove the GBPUSD pair up strongly, the PStr & PTSDiff reversed their downward path & headed back up, with both crossing above the PTMDiff... hence 'the trend' was essentially reinstated or reinvigorated by the Fed announcement...
I just wanted to be clear about this, so that you realize why on 1 day VP (& the candle) was saying 'trend weakening', and the next day, VP/EZCruise was saying 'enter'...
UPDATE: I actually decided to close out Leg3 during the day today, at 250pips profit.... maybe 'bad practice' on my part, but from watching the price action, it seemed pretty clear we were going to end the day with another 'spinning top', at best.
With tonight's data, VP is again showing 'trend weakening' - with the spinning top candle; + PStr crossing below PTSDiff & both of them crossing below PTMDiff... so, if you're still in the trade, this is another one of those decision points! You can either close all or part of the Leg; and/or hang on & adjust your SL to the PLow for the next trading day (1.4314).. either way, you should end up in profit on Leg3...
Image Attachment:
Ok... the pair closed on 24March near 1.4700... and the VantagePoint PLow for the next trading day is 1.4560, so "life is good"!
I do want to take this opportunity to point something out on today's chart....
Take a look at the PStr & PTSDiff indicator curves from 19March thru today...
Note that while the price has been making higher highs.... these VP indicators are actually ~declining~... i.e., --divergence--
Divergence in these indicators is a 'leading indicator' in its own right, indicating price will 'soon' either resort to moving sideways... or actually reverse....
If you look back over the chart, check out the peaks & lows for these indicators vs price action in Feb & March...
You'll see that the 'macro level' decline in price from Feb into March, i.e., lower swing lows... was accompanied by actually higher swing lows in PTSDiff & PStr.. (compare the situation on ~12Feb with that on 10/11March)... and this was followed by a 'macro level' reversal in price basically from 11March thru now...
So, the question comes: could the divergence we are now seeing with price making higher highs and PTSDiff actually declining -- be telling us 'the reversal is coming'? We shall see.
Another 'sign' I also note is that PTMDiff has now reached its highest value since January -- & historically speaking (like over the past 6 months or so), when PTMDiff reaches 0.03 (i.e., 300pips) or so -- a reversal in price occurs...
Just food for thought, things to be aware of as you manage the remainder of the current trade, & watch for signs of the next swing....
"Not a sermon, just a thought" Cheers & Happy Cruisin!
Greetings All
Well.... as we thought might happen based on the indicators at the close yesterday, the GBPUSD moved down today... if you got into the trade back on 19March on the retracement entry I described, you should've cleared over 340pips profit when stopped out at the PLow today... even if you got in at the opening price on the 19th, you should've cleared 280pips profit when stopped out today.... Pretty Cool.
VantagePoint has kicked all the indicators around now, and the EZCruise method says 'sell short'...
As usual, we expect the pair to retrace on today's price range, and indeed at this writing, the price has retraced to basically the 50% level, 1.4620. I actually entered at 1.4615, and set 3 legs as usual....
So now... "We'll see how this one pans out"
Happy Cruisin!
Well... we've had a nice down move on the pair today (26March09), hitting the 1st leg 100pip target on our short trade entered at the beginning of the day...
So now we are holding our SL in its original position above the high of 25March, looking for the next profit target....
It looks to me like if the pair can break down thru the Fib levels around 1.4450 now, the next major resistance is down around 1.4320 or so... which of course would be very good for this trade....
Of course, "Mr. Market" has a mind of his own, So, we shall see!
Cheers All / Happy Cruisin
Things got "a little crazy" during the European & London morning session today (27Mar09)... and the GBP/USD took a nice 300 pip drop, easily hitting our 2nd leg profit target (200pips). The pair is bouncing around basically 1.4290 - 1.4320 at this point.... Looks like VP was pretty tuned in to where "Mr. Market" was heading }:>)
In case you're wondering, in a situation like this, once that 2nd leg/200pip target is hit, I go ahead & move my stop on the remaining leg to BE , during the day if I see it, especially with today being Friday, & the weekend coming up fast -- we won't receive our daily data & be able to update our VP analysis until after the market is closed for the weekend, so I consider moving to BE at this point a 'safe play'...
I'm happy things have gone this well for everyone who made this your first live EZCruise trade -- Congrats!!
Cheers & Happy Cruisin
Is everyone aware of the VantagePoint newsletter that gets published every couple weeks?
It has articles from a variety of people, with a variety of interests & perspectives -- but the common theme is, -its all about using VantagePoint-! (I actually contributed an article into the current issue, so of course I think you'll find it interesting! LoL)
You can find it here on TraderPlanet, under the Education tab, then click Newsletters....
You will see several different newsletters described, with links to click on for each one, and also places to fill in your information if you would like a newsletter emailed to you...
(and just FYI, I've tried to sign up to receive the VP newsletter via email but it hasn't worked for some reason - altho the others seem to -- I let the TP people know)
On that Newsletters page, you will also see some tabs on the upper RHS, one of which is 'VantagePoint Archives' -- where you can find all the back issues of the VP newsletter -- Check it out, good stuff!
Cheers
Greetings All
As we know, the trade entered 26March09 has done well!... even if you only entered at the opening price on the 26th, TP1 & TP2 were hit on the 26th & 27th, respectively... and you should be sitting now at a little less than 300pips profit on Leg3.
Today's price action (30Mar09) formed a hammer (potentially "hammering out a bottom"), and VP's PStr reversed direction & crossed PTSDiff... these indicate 'trend weakening', but do not necessarily mean the trend is over.... and at the same time, PTSDiff, PTMDiff, and the PHigh & PLow are all still saying 'trend continues'...
As I've described many times, at this point the 'straight' EZCruise Method has you set the stop at tomorrow's PHigh+spread, and 'hang on'... to be cautious/conservative, you might choose to close a portion of the position at this point; or to be very conservative, you might choose to close the entire position... it is your choice, obviously. Any of those 3 approaches will end you up in profit on Leg3.... that's EZCruisin! I personally closed 1/2 the final position, and will ride the remainder to see what happens next.
I'm attaching a chart showing the progress of this trade... Cheers
Image Attachment:
Well.... as we knew was possible, the market headed up yesterday, & hit our stop loss on the 3rd leg of our 26March09 trade. Even so, this leg ended up with between 150 & 200pips profit, depending on where you entered.
As of the end of day on 31March, we are waiting for VP's PTMDiff to reverse & head upward before we will have an EZCruise entry signal. All the other indicators are already signaling a long entry... we'll see what the situation looks like after market action on April 1.
Cheers all, enjoy the additional pips you've earned & put 'in the bag'!
(p.s. Alvin: Congrats! Jolly good show!)
Evenin' Everybody (as Norm on Cheers used to say)
The VP indicators have kicked around and the EZCruise method has signaled a long entry... I've entered limit orders to 'buy', at 1.4440, looking for a modest retracement, with the usual 3 legs, and SL at 1.4260 (i.e., 12pips below todays low of 1.4270) (on IBFX anyway)...
What do others think?
Like I always say.. "so now we'll see how this one pans out!"
Cheers
testttt tgggggggg
Greetings All....
Although we missed entering the long trade signaled by the EZCruise Method at COB on 01Apr09, due to waiting for a retracement that never materialized!.... I wanted to post a chart...
It was another 'text book' EZCruise trade, that hit TP1 & TP2 both on the entry day, & was stopped out on Leg 3 a couple days later with basically 275pips profit on that Leg, assuming an entry at or near the 01April closing price... it was a sweet trade!
Since then, the EZCruise method hasn't signaled an entry - on 07April we saw everything lining up except for the PTMDiff, which was still heading 'up'... on 08April we saw everything heading down, except PStr, which bounced 'up'... additionally, the candle on the 7th was a hammer, followed by a smaller inside day hammer on the 8th.... these contradicted the 'go short' signal given by the majority of the EZCruise indicators...
So, as a result, we have stayed on the sidelines, waiting for things to sort out, and a movement direction to be established...
As always, we'll just have to wait and see how this one pans out! (Hey, maybe we could start a betting pool to wager on future direction)
Cheers
Image Attachment:
Well..
The indicators have lined up per the EZCruise method for a short entry... so, its game on, altho we have to be aware that tomorrow is a holiday for 'alot' of the world, so liquidity will be low, and strange things may happen!... I've entered 3 legs short at 1.4632, with a stop loss at 1.4794 (1.4790+spread)... and the usual 100/200/run profit targets...
And so now,... we'll see how this one pans out! Cheers
Wow, talk about blowing thru a stop loss! The pair traded on up almost 100pips beyond our stop loss. Quite a turnaround on a low-volume day (many places in the world were still on Holiday Monday)...
In retrospect, on VP, the clue to the weakness in the entry signal was that the PStr was barely headed down, and was actually above the PTSDiff -- we much prefer to see PStr basically 'leading' PTSDiff in the direction of the trade...
The way the pair is trading today (Tuesday, 04/14), price is hitting back up near its recent high slightly above 1.4950... will be interesting to see if it breaks thru to the upside, or bounces back down... and what VP has to say about the situation.
Well...
As of the close on Tuesday 14Apr09, we have an EZCruise 'long' entry signal... I'm in at 1.4908, SL at 1.4811, the usual 3 legs...
We'll see how this one pans out!
Cheers
Cool, thanks Pintol, Welcome Glyn!
I'm concerned about the current trade guys -- we have divergence in PTSDiff, PTMDiff & PStr, plus Phigh & Plow are pointing down, along with a 'down day' on price action today... not to mention, PStr has crossed below PTSDiff, and they both have dropped below PTMDiff... and PTMDiff has increased only 0.0001 from yesterday...
I've decided to break the rules & move my stop to BE on the remaining 2 legs! This may or may not be the right thing to do, I'm just letting you know what I'm doing... Obviously, it is completely your choice on how you want to handle things now.. and, we'll see how things pan out!
Any thoughts? Cheers
Wow, I hope people read my post last night, or saw what was happening & took action
-- as of now (1100GMT, 17April), the pair has dropped basically 150+pips from the 0000 GMT open, including crashing through our original stop loss. Not too surprising, based on the divergences and indicator directions VP was providing at the close on 16April.
I don't like to 'bend the rules'! - but sometimes the evidence that a train is coming in the opposite direction is strong enough to dictate taking extra steps to protect ourselves...
Cheers
Greetings all
We have a short entry signal from VP & the EZCruise method... I've entered at 1.4798, SL at 1.4950, the usual 3 legs... and so now we'll see how ~this one~ pans out.
How's everybody doing?
Cheers / Good trading
Cool! {;>)
The short trade entered last night has moved in our direction ~225pips at this point (20Apr09, 1050GMT), hitting our 100 & 200pip profit targets....
I've moved my SL on the remaining 3rd leg to BE....
We're EZCruisin now!.. hope you got onboard for the ride
Cheers all, Happy Monday
Well...
Talk about a retracement... that was incredible! (over 60% retracement today)
This action took out our SL on Leg 3, but that should have easily still resulted in profit for everyone. Personally, mine was 97pips on this Leg, putting the total for this trade at 397. Not the biggest trade we've had, but pips in the bank, nonetheless!
So now... we wait.
As of the close today (21Apr09), VP is showing 'long entry' in 5 of the 7 indicators we use in the EZCruise method... if tomorrow is another 'up' day, we can expect VP & EZCruise to fully signal an entry.
Cheers all. Almost 'hump day'!
Well....
Folks, we 'technically' have an EZCruise short trade entry signal tonight.... all the indicators are heading down.
However, we also have divergence between price action the past couple days & movement in the PStr and PTSDiff -- both these indicators are at values greater than they were 2 days ago, yet today's low price & closing price were lower than they were 2 days ago.
Additionally, we note that PTMDiff is approaching its own area of 'support', where it typically reverses..
I may be completely wrong!... but my experience tells me this isn't a great set up...
On a reentry signal in an established trend, it is not unusual to have PStr not leading PTSDiff, and things still work out fine... but it generally is 'never' good to have divergence going on, especially in both indicators..
Plus, we have an unemployment report & an existing home sales report coming out from the US Government tomorrow morning -- both of which can yank the market around.
So, I'm going to choose to 'stand aside' on this one, paper trade it, & see what happens....
What do others think?
Image Attachment:
Greetings all!,
Looks like the divergence we observed last night was a great clue -- the pair rebounded over 200 pips today!
I do agree with Pintol, we have a long entry signal now, that looks good...
I jumped the gun & got a terrible entry at 1.4715, set up the usual 3 legs, & SL at 1.4429....
Lets hope any Friday craziness is in our favor!
Cheers
Well....
We entered a long trade at the open on 24April, that has basically gone nowhere since..
VantagePoint is showing 'mixed signals' after the close on 27April, as shown in the attached chart.
PHigh & Plow are heading in opposite directions, & price closed below the P3EMA+1... however the candle shape formed by price action on the 27th is an inverted hammer, as in 'hammering out a bottom'...
The other VP predictive indicators also show a mixed bag -- PStr & PTSDiff have turned down, and PStr has crossed below PTSDiff. The PNI has moved to "0"... but PTMDiff is still heading 'up'!... and PStr & PTSDiff haven't crossed below it....
So, we sit tight with our trade to see what tomorrow brings
(& this combination of mixed indications often/usually leads to 'choppy conditions' the next day, i.e., no clear trend or directiion - just a ranging type of 'confused' market...)
Cheers all.
Image Attachment:
Well... the 'uncertainty' continues, with VP's indicators still showing us a 'mixed bag'...
PHigh & PLow are both showing slight decreases.... PTSDiff declined slightly, but PTMDiff & PStr are both heading up, and PNI has popped back to 1.0... the price action formed another inverted hammer, hopefully again signaling 'a bottom'....
So, we hang on, 'watch' and 'wait'!... SL still at 1.4429
Cheers all
As of this morning, ~1100GMT on 30April, the trade we entered on 04/24 has blasted thru the profit targets on legs 1 & 2, putting 300pips in the bag!....
I've moved my SL on the last leg to BE at this point, and we're cruisin, see what this one does...
(those that entered based on last night's signal, should have hit the 100pip target on Leg 1, and came very close to hitting the 200pip target overnight as well. It's all good :>)
Cheers all, Happy Thursday!
Well..
Depending on your entry into the trade opened on 24April, and whether or not you moved your SL earlier today to BE, you may or may not have been stopped out at BE on Leg 3 today -- I was.... so, overall, 300pips on that trade.
If not stopped out today, the EZCruise Method calls for you to move your SL on the 3rd leg to BE or tomorrow's PLow, whichever is higher.... Based on the price action today, you may want to consider also closing some or all of the remaining Leg 3 position.
In spite of the shooting star candle formed today, VP's predictive indicators used in the EZCruise Method are all pointing up.... if you entered the trade based on indications at the close yesterday (29April), you should've achieved the 100pip profit target on Leg 1, and be maintaining your original SL, holding Legs 2 & 3 open....
And, so now we'll see how this one pans out!
Cheers all
Well....
Those of you who entered the trade at close on 29April/open 30April should be very happy!
The pair took out the 200pip target today, so you should be moving SL on the 3rd leg to BE or tomorrow's predicted low, whichever is higher.... and, you're now "Cruisin"...
And, like I always say... "Now we'll see how this one pans out....."
Cheers
Well...
If you're in the long trade entered at the close on 29April/open on 30April, you've got to be smiling right now
Legs 1 & 2 TPs have been hit, 300pips in the bag... and leg 3 is Cruisin, basically up over 350pips from the entry, with a SL for tomorrow over 250pips above the entry! Its all good.
A couple things I want to point out on today's chart....
Note first we had a bit of a 'hanging man' candle form today... a possible reversal signal, but have to wait for confirmation with tomorrow's price action...
Second, note PStr has crossed below PTSDiff, they have both crossed below PTMDiff, and they are both heading 'down'... (note also, PStr & PTSDiff have been below PTMDiff a couple days now... but this is the first day they have both been ~decreasing)
Third, note PTMDiff is still rising, but its rate of change is slowing & it is now basically into 'the zone' where it has recently been reversing...
At the same time... the PNI is still "1.0", and the PHigh & PLow for tomorrow are both higher than today....
So, we have a mixed bag of signals right now, & the basic EZCruise method says 'move the SL to PLow for tomorrow, and hold your position'... that's a perfectly rational thing to do, as we do not know what tomorrow will bring...
You 'may' also want to consider closing part or all the position based on the conflicting signals.... being conservative/cautious at this juncture... This can be a perfectly rational thing to do as well, as this run has lasted 6 days now, and we do have signs of the trend weakening....
Any of the above are fine choices, it all just depends how you want to play it, based on your own trading style, constraints, and objectives.
I'll check in tomorrow at this time & plan to post a chart, when we can have a look at 'what happens next'!
Cheers all, Happy Cruisin
Well....
As we suspected from the positions and movements of the VP indicators & the candle formed yesterday, the pair indeed moved down today.
If you entered at the open on 30 April, you should've closed out Leg 3 with ~290pips profit.. not bad for this trade, 100+200+290 = 590pips all told :~)
VantagePoint & the EZCruise method are showing a short entry signal tonight... the eve of the NFP report! .....I've entered the trade at 1/2 the usual size, 1/2 the usual risk... I've entered at 1.5030, SL at 1.5211, and the usual 3 leg profit targets...
I'm attaching a figure for those who don't have the SW...
and "we'll see how this one pans out!"
Cheers all
Image Attachment:
Greetings All
Sorry I was a bit 'off the air' on Friday/over the weekend! I had issues with my CRB data subscription, and couldn't get things straightened out until this morning (Monday). I had no VP data to work with based on Friday's price action, until now. Not a good thing!
If you checked VP after the close on Friday, you may well have noted that 'technically' all the indicators were lined up for a long trade entry via the EZCruise method.. however, we see that so far today, the pair has had a bearish day... some people may be asking 'why'?...
I'm attaching a new chart for you to take a look at.. you will note I have marked 'divergence' a couple places -- there is divergence between the price action, as compared to the movement of the PStr and the difference indicators (PTSDiff, PTMDiff)...
Price moved up strongly on Friday, and altho the indicators turned up in direction, their values at the close on Friday were actually lower than their values 2 days prior, & PStr & PTSDiff were below PTMDiff... we also see the PTMDiff value remains basically in its historical 'reversal zone'... it is not impossible for it to move higher from here, but, it has often turned & headed down from this level.
These are indications to 'no trade' the entry signal that occured after Friday's close, & if you've been following this Thread for awhile, you know we have made that call on other occasions as well.
Another example flagged on the attached chart occured back between 20 & 22 April.. In that case, we had price moving 'down', and the indicators moving 'up' in value... and additionally, after the close on 22April, altho all the indicators were pointing 'down'... PSTr was above PTSDiff & also PTMDiff.. i.e., not 'leading' the trade.. this too is an indication we have discussed previously as a reason to 'no trade' the basic entry signal...
The message here is, VP & the EZCruise method give you highly reliable signals, that also need to be watched for cases of divergence... ~sometimes, divergence will occur, and price will not reverse... but if you look back over the history, you'll see that ~most of the time, divergence between price & the VP indicators is a pretty reliable 'early warning' that things aren't as they otherwise seem.... (same is true for relatively high values of PTMDiff)
So, at this point in time, we sit on the sidelines, and see what happens next with the market, and what VP 'thinks' about it!
Cheers all / Good Trading.
Image Attachment:
Well....., "Evenin' everybody!", as Norm on Cheers used to say!
....The pair had a strong bearish day today, which we basically expected, due to the divergence the VP indicators have been showing compared to the price action over the past several days.
We now have a very clear short entry signal, based on the EZCruise method...
The market has moved below where it was at the closing at 5pm Eastern time, so I have placed sell limit orders for 3 Legs at 1.5154 (the price at 5pm Eastern), hoping the market doesn't run away and not look back!
I've placed SLs for the 3 legs at 12pips + 4pips spread above today's high, which was 1.5331, and the profit targets for each of the 3 legs are the usual 100/200/run....
and so now.. "we'll see how this one pans out"!
Cheers all / Good trading
Well... Ouch. The short trade entered at the open on 05/14 was stopped out today, & we now have a 'long' entry signal from VP & the EZCruise method.... I've placed buy limit orders at 1.5293 with the usual 3 legs, and SL 12 pips below today's low...
and, for better or for worse... "We'll see how this one pans out"!
Cheers all / Good trading
Ok folks...
I gave up waiting for the retracement entry at 1.5293 last night, and got an entry at 1.5310. So at this point (1220GMT, 19May) both the 100pip & 200pip profit targets (Legs 1&2) have been hit.
But, based strictly on yesterday's closing price (1.5323), the 2nd profit target hasn't quite gotten there -- so, per the EZCruise method, we maintain our SL at 12pips below yesterday's low.... and wait to see what happens.
I'll check back in with you later today....
Cheers all
Well!.....
As a friend of mine likes to say... "You Gotta Be Crazy Not to Love This"!
Our trade opened at the close on 18May is now up over 400pips, having hit the Leg1 & Leg2 profit targets... So, we move our SL on Leg3 to tomorrow's VP predicted low, at 1.5573, which is over 200pips above the entry as well....
The dollar was down sharply today, and the GBP/USD pair had quite a run, basically 260pips from open to close... VantagePoint is indicating more upside tomorrow, but we have to note that all of the difference indicators are definitely now in their 'reversal zone'...
We also see an 'old' resistance level in the 1.5830 - 1.5850 area (~Oct08), as well as a 38% Fibo at approx 1.60, based on the high back in Jul08 and the low in Jan09..
With the price set to test 1.58 again soon it appears, we have to wonder how much more upside there may be... a healthy retracement and/or some sideways action in the near term wouldn't be too surprising, would it?...
At this point, the standard EZCruise method is to move your SL to tomorrows PLow, and 'hang on'.. depending on your situation and your own analysis, you may want to do that, or close part or all of Leg3 at this point, to put some profits 'in the bank' -- obviously that is all up to you. I personally am closing 1/2 the Leg3 position at this point, and holding the remaining 1/2 to 'see how this one pans out'...
Cheers all!, we're EZCruisin
Tango
Well.. Evenin Everybody, How sweet it is
The pair moved over a range of 350pips today (high to low), and we hit the profit targets on Legs 1 & 2 (100pips & 200pips), ... and so now we are left with Leg 3 open to run!...
Per the EZCruise Method, we now move our SL to either BE or VP's Predicted High for tomorrow, whichever is lower, since we are in a short trade... in my case, they are actually 'identical' today, but your situation may be different....
In any event, you ~should be in a situation such that if things reverse tomorrow (and yep, its NonFarmPayroll day again tomorrow, so anything can happen!), you will end up in profit, or worst case at BE, on Leg 3, depending on where you entered.... and so, now we're Cruisin, another win in the bag!...
Cheers All / Good Trading
Tango
Evening Everybody!
Well.. the pair 'bounced' a bit today, as we might have expected with the PTSDiff & PStr indicators being in their historical 'reversal levels' as of the close on last Friday...
VP is now showing PStr has crossed back above PTSDiff, and they are both headed 'up'.. and the predicted high & low prices for tomorrow are predicted fairly 'flat'....
The strictest employment of the EZCruise method at this point is to move your SL to tomorrow's predicted high, & hang on..
Given that we have the configuration of PTSDiff & PSTr that we do, plus the white candle that formed today... you might also want to close a portion or all of Leg 3 at this point, in anticipation of a further bounce in the long direction tomorrow... it is up to you!
I personally have closed 1/2 at this point, and will hang on to the remaining 1/2 and see what happens.. things actually don't look too promising right now either, as the current price is within about 40pips of hitting tomorrow's predicted high...
Whatever you do, you should end this trade completely in profit, and that's something to smile about!
Cheers all/ Good Trading
Evenin Everybody
Well... if you held onto all or part of Leg 3, that got taken out at today's predicted high (1.6141)... which should mean that worst case, if you entered at the closing price on 03June, you netted 100pips on Leg1, 200pips on Leg2, and 175pips on Leg3, for a total of 475pips on the trade... Not bad!
Tonight we have a pretty classic 'buy' signal on VP & the EZCruise method... I entered 3 Legs at 1.6307, and placed my SL 270pips below that, which is today's ATR(10) value.. and set the usual profit targets on the 3 Legs. If you have time to wait a bit on entry, I'm betting you can get in below 1.6300...
And so now... "we'll see how this one pans out"!
Cheers all / Good Trading
Evenin Everybody! How's everybody doin??
Well... if you're in this trade entered the evening of 09June.. You have to be smiling, right? "You gotta be crazy not to love it"!
From an entry around 1.63, the pair is basically sitting at 1.66 as of this evening (11 June)... we've hit the profit targets on Leg1 (100pips), Leg2 (200pips), and we're now EZCruisin with Leg3, moving our SL to VantagePoint's predicted low for tomorrow (1.6438)..
....this means that 'worst case', even if the market reverses hard tomorrow... Leg3 will stop out with over 130pips profit, and we'll have another overall successful trade.
1.66 is definitely a key level, and we could easily see the pair form a double top here, and reverse... VP's difference indicators are all still pointing up & heading up, altho PStr has fallen below PTSDiff, but is still heading 'up'... this ~is a sign of the trend slowing, but it isn't a hard reversal signal yet.
We also note the PTSDiff & PStr are at or very near their recent reversal zone (around 200pips, 0.0200 on the vertical scale), which does raise a 'caution' flag....
Looking ahead from where we are now, I see Fib levels in the area of 1.6650, and also around 1.6740... with any luck, the move will continue at least on up to one or both of those levels... we can hope!
Depending on your optimism or pessimism level.. you may want to take some profit on part or all of Leg3 at this point also... just in case the 'double top' scenario kicks in.... Or, you may want to hang on fully, expecting the USD to continue tanking here! Personally, I'm closing 1/2 of Leg3 at this level, and hanging on to 1/2, to see what happens...
and so now... "we'll see how this one pans out"!
Thoughts? Comments? Cheers all/Happy Trading
Stopped out!
Wow, talk about a dramatic reversal.. the US dollar apparently started weakening right away during the European session today, and drove prices on the pair all the way back up to 1.6505, totally stopping us out.. like I said to Shiva last night - 'stuff' does happen.
I'll post more tonight.
Greetings All
Well... today was a pretty good sized 'down day' for the pair... & VP + the EZCruise method are showing a short entry signal; VP & EZCruise are also showing a long entry signal on the USD
I'm pretty leery of this price action, as we've been stuck in this trading range on the GBP/ USD from about 1.6250 to 1.6550 for several days now... additionally, I see divergences in the indicators on a number of the other pairs tonight.
We also have the US existing home sales report coming out tomorrow at 10ET, and on top of that, Obama is speaking at 1230ET... either of these events could have a big impact on price action tomorrow... Lots of uncertainly in this market, certainly hard to 'predict'...
I'm placing limit sell orders at the closing price shown in tonights VP data (1.6345), and only trading 1/2 the usual risk size on this.... current price has dropped down to almost 1.6300, so we'll have to wait & see if it bounces back up at all.....
Anyone have other insights on the situation? Feel free to share with all.
Cheers all, we'll see how this one pans out!
All, If you entered the short trade signaled last night, you 'should' have hit the 100pip profit target, as price dropped down to basically 1.62 & rebounded.
I did not get an entry, because price never got to my entry level (i.e., yesterdays VP close, at 1.6345)
The pair has formed a doji-hammer candle as of midday London time. That indicates a potential bottom.
I'm removing my previous sell limit orders and standing aside on this... just wanted to let you guys know. I expect the pair to pick a direction in the next day or 2, as more economic news reports are released...
Cheers all, Good Trading!
Well....
Tonight we have a VP/EZCruise long entry signal... I've entered at 1.6442 (today's VP close was 1.6450), with 1/2 size.. because we're still in the trading range between 1.62 and about 1.66.. Choppy waters here, but, quite a few significant GBP and USD news events tomorrow... so with any luck, we will see the pair finally pick a direction & 'go'.
Cheers all / Good trading, "we'll see how this one pans out"
,
All,
The long trade entered last night hit the 100pip profit target and is currently only about 30pips above the entry price, with a shooting-star type candle formed/forming
We have the US FOMC interest rate announcement coming out at 2:15pm ET today (2 hours from now)
I am going to move my SL to break even on the remaining legs of this trade at this point, and watch the action from that safety position...
Cheers all
---------------
Well, so much for that!... Stopped out now at my entry of 1.6442. I'll ride thru the FOMC announement flat.
Greetings all, Just to clarify, we hit the first leg profit target today, & I moved stops to BE... and was subsequently stopped out prior to the FOMC announcement...
Tonight's indicators are a 'no trade'... so, we wait.
Evenin Everybody
VP/EZCruise indicators are mixed again tonite - so, we wait....
Cheers All
Well.. Evenin Everybody!
If you entered the trade last night below 1.6485, you should've hit the 100pip profit target today, Cool.
As promised, I've moved my stops to BE on this one, until & unless i can see the pair break out of the trading range high at 1.66.....
VP/EZCruise is forecasting more positive price action for tomorrow, despite the 'almost hanging man candle' that formed today...
And, a peek at the USDollar chart shows an inverted hammer formed today, & the PStr & PTSDiff are starting to head 'up'.. these are indeed 'clues', altho not definite reversal signals just yet...
Be careful on this one, I do suggest caution.
Evenin Everybody
Wow, big bummer!! looks like price got to 1pip below my entry price today, so of course I didn't get filled! (on IBFX)
Tonite's VP/EZCruise signals are mixed, with the majority still saying 'short'.... if you're in this trade, i'd watch it closely.
Remember, tomorrow is US NonFarmPayroll, yes! on Thursday, since Friday is a US holiday.
If you're not in, you may want to stay out altogether at this point, it just depends on your risk tolerance.
I'm leaving a my sell limit order in at 1.6544 on just 1 Leg, will target 100pips profit on that....
Cheers all / Good trading
OK, its 0840 London time on Thursday 07/02 & the pair has dropped to a low of 1.6327 so far today....
If you entered at the close on Tuesday per the VP/EZCruise signal, you've hit the 100pip profit target on Leg 1! I missed the entry trying for a sell at 1.6544, since unfortunately, price only got to 1.6543 yesterday. If I was in this trade, I would definitely be moving my SL on any remaining Leg(s) to BE at this point..
Cheers all / Good Trading
Well.. Evenin Everybody
What a down move we saw today! if you're still in this trade, your Leg3 should be at around 400pips in profit at the moment, and you might want to take at least some of that off the table at this point... nice bit to put into the bank! And be sure to move your SL to at least VP's predicted high for tomorrow!
The pair has closed below 1.62 for the first time in a month... & so now we'll see if this move continues.
Cheers all / Good Trading
Well.. Evenin Everybody!
The short trade entered after the close on 30 June came to an end today, stopped out at the VP predicted high... but even at that, Leg 3 (if you didn't close sooner) should've netted you over 250pips. So, 100+200+250pips easily on that trade. You had the opportunity several times to close out Leg3 at 300-400pips profit as well, just depending on how you wanted to handle it.
And, we had a pretty big retracement to the upside today.. as the USDollar took a pounding. Basically the pair retraced 50% from the low set on 08 July, back towards the high set on 30 June. The 'threat' of this move was signaled last night by the PStr & PTSDiff crossing over the PTMDiff & heading back 'up'...
At this point, we have a very classic EZCruise long entry signal. Because of the almost 400 pip range today, I do expect a healthy retracement.. Being a little conservative because I've missed out a few times looking for bigger retracements... I'm placing buy orders now for 3 legs at 1.6280 (price right now is at 1.6310))
Also, I'm going to use 110% of the ATR(10) to place my SLs - which translates to a SL of basically 220pips.
And, We'll see how this one pans out folks.
Cheers All/Good Trading
Greetings All
The pair retraced on Friday, basically back to the 1.6200 level, basically a 50% retracement on the high-low range of Thursday...
We're in a long position from 1.6280 at this point, and the good news is that the VantagePoint PIndex, PTSDiff & PTMDiff indicators are still heading 'up'... the PStr indicator has turned down, but is still in positive territory and has not crossed over the PTSDiff nor PTMDiff indicators....
So, we wait to see how this one will pan out!
Cheers all / Good trading
Well..
WOW Is this market wacky or what?? The USDollar really didn't do much today, so we can attribute this price action to fluctuations with the Pound.
If you entered after the close on 09July & placed your stop using the 110% of the ATR(10).. you likely were stopped out today... as was I! If you went with the standard EZCruise approach of putting your stop below the low of the analysis day, you should still be in, just had a wild ride.
I opted to re-enter, and got in at 1.6107... VantagePoint is showing us a bit of a mixed bag tonight, with the PStr, PIndex & PHigh/PLow heading down.. but PTMDiff & PTSDiff are still heading up.. so, hopefully this is an indication that pressure in the long direction is continuing to build.
We have some key economic news reports coming out in the US at 0830 Eastern tomorrow, as well as the UK CPI at 0430 Eastern... all of which may or may not be favorable for our trade...
And... we'll hang on to see how this one pans out
Cheers all / good trading!
Evenin Everybody
Well.. talk about whipping around & going nowhere! We've seen that in the GBPUSD pair over the past few days.... As we were surmising from last night's PTSDiff & PTMDiff indicator directions, today saw more 'upward momentum' in the pair, despite the US news reports at 0830 that sent things the wrong direction for us.
If you're not already in this trade from the close on July 9th, we have another 'buy' signal from the VP/EZCruise method tonight... So, you can consider hopping on board.
There are news reports hitting the street tomorrow, I see we have a 'Claimant Count Change' report (i.e., unemployment) coming out of the UK at 0430 Eastern, along with the Core CPI out of the US at 0830 Eastern, and US FOMC minutes (from a past meeting) being released at 2PM Eastern... any of which could definitely impact our trade.. so, just be aware that there may be some volatility, and it may or may not be favorable for our trade...
...and with that.. we'll hang on now & see how this one pans out.
Cheers all / Good trading!
Evenin Everbody!
Well..... we had a very nice move 'up' in the pair today... ~finally, hit the 100pip profit target on the trade entered after the close on 09July... and, if you didn't enter or re-enter until the new 'long' signal the method gave last night... you hit the 100pip profit target on that too!
One concern I have at this point is that price basically hit the 61.8% fibo & retreated today, based on the high set on 30June (1.6744) and the low set on 08July (1.5985)... Price is now about 50pips above the 50% retracement line, which will hopefully act as support, and things will progress on in our favor. At the same time, I think it ~is a significant sign to see that price today closed above the close back on 09July, which was a dramatic retracement from the almost 2 week 'down' move that ran from 30June thru 08July....
Not much in the way of news reports tomorrow, with only the US TIC report coming out at 9AM Eastern...
So, we hang on, & wait to see... how this one pans out!
Cheers all / Good trading!
Well....
We now have that unusual situation -- we haven't hit all the profit targets on the long trade entered 09July or 14July, depending on where you got in... and we now have a short entry signal!
The 'purist' approach here with the GBP/USD EZCruise method would be to hang on to the open long trade, 'to the bloody end'...
'In the old days' (not too long ago!), before the Gov stepped in & added restrictions on traders (no hedging, & first in first out), I would've (1) moved stops to BE on the open trade (at least), and (2) entered the short trade that's signaled.
Since we can't hedge anymore - I plan to move my stops to BE (1.6314 for me) immediately upon market open, and depending on the price action, go from there to either close the trade out & enter short - or hang on & let the long run some more.
Taking a look at the USDollar chart, we can see that there are 'some' signs of movement to the long side but also signs of possible continued weakening! (PStr & PTSDiff have reversed & headed up, above PTMDiff, which is still decreasing,.... while PIndex is zero, & the closing price was below the P3EMA+1)
The dollar closed at 79.347 on Friday, on a very weak candle -- and I can see long term support in the 78.40-78.55 area. If the dollar indeed moves down.. we can see the GBP/USD head back up... & vice versa.
From a Fibo perspective, we can see the GBP basically hit the 38% retracement level on Friday & rebounded, to now just under the 50% level described a few days ago -- which may prove to be stiff resistance -- or, merely a 'speed bump' along the path 'higher'!
Also, another Fibo perspective, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a move down to the low 1.6230 area, followed by a rebound, which would be a 50% retracement from the low of 1.5985 on 09July to the high of 1.6478 on 16July...
Bottom line, we will just have to wait & see what happens here.
Cheers all, Good trading.
Well... Evenin Everybody!
Good thing its not 'the good ol days' huh!.. (referring to my posting last night) The pair never hit my BE stop at 1.6314, and so I stayed in the long trade.
The pair continued the march upwards today. As we thought was possible, the USDollar broke down today, getting not quite to the key resistance at around 78.50.. yet...
For the GBPUSD, the 50% retracement (based on the 30June high & the 08July low) held as support, and the pair crossed above 1.6500 at this point, and also above the 61.8% retracement level; perhaps that will hold as support... 1.66 looms as the next major resistance barrier ahead.
The VP/EZCruise indicators are all heading 'up' at this point, which is technically a 'buy' signal -- but -- there are couple of things to note!
(1) the PStr & PTSDiff are both below the PTMDiff; this is not necessarily a 'show stopper', but it has in the past been less reliable of a signal; and
(2) there is divergence between price and the PSTr & PTSDiff indicators... price closed higher today than back on Thursday 16July -- but both PTSDiff & PSTr are now at lower values than they were on the 9th. This is a big red flag.
Looking at other Forex & stock market charts this evening... -- I see divergences like this 'all over the place' in the VP charts.... which is usually a sign of "reversals" just waiting in the wings to pop out...
As a result... I am choosing to not enter another long trade here. With a nice run up today, whether you entered this trade on 09July or on 14July -- your 100pip and 200pip profit targets (Legs1 & 2) should've been hit!
At this point, I am actually opting to close 1/2 my remaining Leg, and move the SL to VP's predicted low for tomorrow, which will still give me 105pips profit on Leg 3 ~if~ it gets hit.
....."and that's part of our world tonight"! Any thoughts?
Cheers all / Good trading
Well, Evenin Everybody!
As we expected, based on divergence in the PStr & PTSDiff vs price on Monday 20July... the pair price dropped alot the next 2 days, altho not enough to hit the initial EZCruise stop (below the low of 20July).. We chose not to enter the long trade signaled on the 20th, due to the divergence - and we are waiting to see how that one pans out.
I'm attaching a chart showing the various events in the trade entered 09July or 14July, depending on when you got in. It was a bumpy ride... but it worked out. The chart also shows the divergence we observed on Monday.
At this point, the VP signals are very mixed - the PIndex is 1.0; all the difference indicators are heading 'down' with PStr below PTSDiff below PTMDiff... Price closed today above the P3EMA+1, but is a hammer candle, while the PHigh for tomorrow is 'up', and the PLow for tomorrow is 'down' from today...
So, who knows where things will go next? We notice the candle pattern of the past 3 days is very very similar to the candle pattern that formed on the 9th-10th-14th of July.... which was followed by an 'up' move in the pair... maybe that will repeat here!... Time will tell. We'll keep watching.
Cheers all / Good Trading
Image Attachment:
Well.. evenin everybody
Just wanted to recap & bring everyone uptodate.
Back on 20July, VP/EZCruise gave a long entry signal - which we chose to stand aside on, due to the divergence showing in the PStr & PTSDiff indicators. I highlighted that in the figure with the previous post.
Then, as of the close on 24July, there was technically a 'short' entry signal - which I also chose to ignore, due to the fact that PStr, altho heading down, was above PTSDiff. That is a configuration for the indicators that typically foretells or precedes a weak or non-existant move. Indeed, the market today formed a hanging-man like candle, which may or may not precede a down move. The pair has barely broken the high of the 24th since then, and has never closed above it.
Tonight, after the close of 27July, we have mixed signals from VP/EZCruise - all the indicators say 'long', except PTMDiff, which is still heading 'down'... Hence, no trade tonight either.
As you know, we are in the 'summer doldrums' now - alot of the world's traders are on vacation. Action is therefore limited or at least 'muted', and markets can be driven by relatively smaller magnitude forces - hence 'false breakouts' can certainly occur.
From now until after Labor Day in the US, I am going to only take signals that are very very textbook picture perfect, -- if at all. I suggest you may want to do the same for a month or so here as well... just passing along to you my thought process.
Cheers all / Good trading
Evenin Folks
Well.. we do have a VP-EZCruise 'buy' entry signal tonight...
I'm concerned that the pair has basically been bouncing back off the 1.66 level for a couple weeks now, so it remains to be seen if this time around things can be different...
As a result, I'm placing buy orders for the 3 legs at 1.6485 (price closed at 1.6526 today), and I plan to move my stops to BE when the 100pip profit target is hit on Leg 1...
If you're on vacation.. I'd recommend 'stay there'! Until volume/liquidity picks back up...
Cheers All / Good trading
Evenin Everybody
Another strong upmove on the pair today, driven by a big drop in the value of the USDollar....
With tomorrows VantagePoint predicted low at 1.6776, our SL is 291pips above our entry... how sweet it is, we're cruising with Leg 3 and will see where this one goes..
With price sitting now over 400pips from our entry point, and the VP difference indicators entering or in 'the recent reversal zone', -- you might want to also consider taking some partial profits here - I am actually closing 1/2 of Leg 3 at this point, taking those profits 'off the table'...
.....and, we'll see how this one pans out from here!...
Cheers all / Good trading
Quoted from glynfos
Dear Tango46, I am a VP user but version 7. I do not understand your notation PEMA+1? Can you tell me what is the +1? Kindest regards, glyn foster.
The P3EMA+1 is the Three day Predicted Exponential Moving Average typical one day ahead.
It is available in Version 7 as well. When you have the GBP/USD chart open, right click and you select <>. Once the properties window is open, select the <> tab. There are four sections - Actual Market Data, Predicted Differences, Predicted Forecasts and Predicted Technical Indicators. You will notice a <> button in the Predicted Forecasts section. When you have opened the <> window, select the "3 day EMA Typical 1 day ahead" And you are good to go.
Good luck
Pintol2
Dear Tango46,Quoted from Tango46
In this post, I will set out the rules for my "EZCruise" Trading Method for the GBPUSD.... It has been working well.Once you see it -- it is like reading a road map -- you can spot high potential trades easily -- they happen frequently -- and you will also know when VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software is telling you to stay away.
I am assuming the reader has familiarity & ability to operate VP. If you are currently wanting to learn more about the software - this will give you some insight as well
In the posts that follow this one, I will narrate through a series of 4 trades in Nov & Dec 2008
This method also works with other pairs, although the stop loss & profit target values may need to be adjusted -- depending on volatility and historical movement patterns
All the words that follow may make this seem ?complicated? -- it is actually not.
The examples I will post next will demonstrate the method & hopefully clarify things!
VantagePoint Indicators Used: P3EMA+1 3 day EMA predicted 1 day ahead (this is the short term EMA used in the 3EMA set included in VP - this is the set of 3 emas that come up if you select 'Triple Crossover' to be displayed in the SW) PNI Predicted neural index PStr Predicted strength PTSDiff Predicted difference in short term EMA PTMDiff Predicted difference in medium term EMA PHigh Predicted next day high price PLow Predicted next day low price
Objectives 3 profit targets, 3 trade legs: 100 pips; 200 pips; & run, i.e., until stopped out or otherwise closed
Money Management & Risk I personally choose to risk 2% of the current account balance on each trade, meaning that if all 3 legs of the trade hit the initial stop loss -- the dollar value loss to the account will be 2%.
(Note this is different than risking 2% on each of 3 legs, for a total of 6%)
(I speak of legs because in MT4 you have to actually place 3 trades and manage them independently -- on some other platforms, you will be able to place 1 trade, and specify profit targets & amount of the position to close at each)
Entry The objective is to enter based on a daily close above or below the P3EMA+1, when the VP indicators also predict market movement in the same direction. The most advantageous entries are generally at the beginning of a new trend, and on a day the PNI changes direction. Entries later in a trend, using the same entry rules, are ok and usually also successful, but may be affected by ?trend exhaustion? etc.
For a long entry, what we?re looking for are: (and vice versa for a short)
1.) Closing price above P3EMA+1, preferably on a solid up day. If the closing price hasn?t quite crossed the EMA, but is no more than 5 pips below it, that's close enough....
2.) PNI = 1, preferably having just changed from being zero the day before for an initial entry.
3.) PStr, PTSDiff, PTMDiff all rising as compared to the previous day's values, if even only by a small amount. (Note, I have no requirements on which of these is largest or smallest relative to the others, or above zero, below zero etc -- the only requirement is that all 3 are rising.)
4.) PHigh & PLow rising as compared to the previous day's values, if even only by a small amount.
Stop Loss & Exit Normal initial stop loss is set to 12 pips below the entry analysis day's low for a long trade.
For a short trade, the stop is set <12 pips+spread> above the entry analysis day's high.
This initial stop loss remains fixed in place until the 2nd of the 3 profit targets is achieved -- i.e., 200 pips profit.
For a long trade, when the 2nd profit target is reached, move the stop to BE or the PLow for the next day, whichever is greater. Adjust to the new PLow each day, until the stop is hit. (similarly, in a short trade, adjust the stop to BE or , whichever is less)
Re-Entries If stopped out but the trend continues, and on a subsequent day an entry signal re-occurs, or possibly even exists on the day you are stopped out -- then re-enter using the entry rules as before. Be aware the trend may have lots of life left, or possibly not so much.
Creative Tweaks -- Advanced Topic (Not required -- this is where things get more ?discretionary?)
Stops: If the entry analysis day was a large movement day, when the range between the close (which will be your entry) and the day's high or low (depending if going long or short) is huge -- like 400 to 600 pips as weve seen recently -- I sometimes am able to use 110% of ATR(10) for the entry analysis day, which I obtain from my MT4 platform, to set the initial stop. The stop is set 110% of ATR(10) from the entry price. Sometimes, the ATR(10) is larger than the range between the entry price and the day's high/low -- so I go with the usual initial stop loss approach.
This ATR approach sometimes reduces the difference between the entry & the stop loss by a significant amount on a huge movement day -- which reduces risk and allows a larger trade size -- and, Ive found that 110% of the ATR usually provides enough cushion that the stop is not hit when the trade is going to progress in the desired direction.
Exits: There are situations that occur when you may want to be creative in order to maximize your results on a trade. These normally apply only to trades that have already reached the 2nd profit target, and therefore have a stop loss at breakeven or better.
First, in the case of a large movement day -- e.g., closing price 350+ pips from the opening price -- you may want to close part of the remaining position immediately -- and continue trailing the stop for the remaining portion using the VP predicted high/low as before, or possibly with tighter stops.
In the case of a key candle or series of candles, indicating possible reversal, especially when corroborated by the VP indicators (PNI, PStr, PTSDiff, PTMDiff, PHigh, PLow) -- you may want to close all or some of the remaining position -- and either continue trailing the stop using the VP predicted high/low, or shift to using tighter stops.
=================================== ===============
Read this over, give it some thought; ask questions if you want to, and/or hold them til I get the examples posted & you can review those...
Stay cool... and, Happy Cruising!
I am a VP user but version 7. I do not understand your notation PEMA+1?
Can you tell me what is the +1?
Kindest regards,
glyn foster.
yaawwwwnnnnnnnnn yaawwnn....soo slience!!!!!!
In this post, I will set out the rules for my "EZCruise" Trading Method for the GBPUSD.... It has been working well.
Once you see it -- it is like reading a road map -- you can spot high potential trades easily -- they happen frequently -- and you will also know when VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software is telling you to stay away.
I am assuming the reader has familiarity & ability to operate VP. If you are currently wanting to learn more about the software - this will give you some insight as well
In the posts that follow this one, I will narrate through a series of 4 trades in Nov & Dec 2008
This method also works with other pairs, although the stop loss & profit target values may need to be adjusted -- depending on volatility and historical movement patterns
All the words that follow may make this seem ?complicated? -- it is actually not.
The examples I will post next will demonstrate the method & hopefully clarify things!
VantagePoint Indicators Used: P3EMA+1 3 day EMA predicted 1 day ahead (this is the short term EMA used in the 3EMA set included in VP - this is the set of 3 emas that come up if you select 'Triple Crossover' to be displayed in the SW) PNI Predicted neural index PStr Predicted strength PTSDiff Predicted difference in short term EMA PTMDiff Predicted difference in medium term EMA PHigh Predicted next day high price PLow Predicted next day low price
Objectives 3 profit targets, 3 trade legs: 100 pips; 200 pips; & run, i.e., until stopped out or otherwise closed
Money Management & Risk I personally choose to risk 2% of the current account balance on each trade, meaning that if all 3 legs of the trade hit the initial stop loss -- the dollar value loss to the account will be 2%.
(Note this is different than risking 2% on each of 3 legs, for a total of 6%)
(I speak of legs because in MT4 you have to actually place 3 trades and manage them independently -- on some other platforms, you will be able to place 1 trade, and specify profit targets & amount of the position to close at each)
Entry The objective is to enter based on a daily close above or below the P3EMA+1, when the VP indicators also predict market movement in the same direction. The most advantageous entries are generally at the beginning of a new trend, and on a day the PNI changes direction. Entries later in a trend, using the same entry rules, are ok and usually also successful, but may be affected by ?trend exhaustion? etc.
For a long entry, what we?re looking for are: (and vice versa for a short)
1.) Closing price above P3EMA+1, preferably on a solid up day. If the closing price hasn?t quite crossed the EMA, but is no more than 5 pips below it, that's close enough....
2.) PNI = 1, preferably having just changed from being zero the day before for an initial entry.
3.) PStr, PTSDiff, PTMDiff all rising as compared to the previous day's values, if even only by a small amount. (Note, I have no requirements on which of these is largest or smallest relative to the others, or above zero, below zero etc -- the only requirement is that all 3 are rising.)
4.) PHigh & PLow rising as compared to the previous day's values, if even only by a small amount.
Stop Loss & Exit Normal initial stop loss is set to 12 pips below the entry analysis day's low for a long trade.
For a short trade, the stop is set <12 pips+spread> above the entry analysis day's high.
This initial stop loss remains fixed in place until the 2nd of the 3 profit targets is achieved -- i.e., 200 pips profit.
For a long trade, when the 2nd profit target is reached, move the stop to BE or the PLow for the next day, whichever is greater. Adjust to the new PLow each day, until the stop is hit. (similarly, in a short trade, adjust the stop to BE or , whichever is less)
Re-Entries If stopped out but the trend continues, and on a subsequent day an entry signal re-occurs, or possibly even exists on the day you are stopped out -- then re-enter using the entry rules as before. Be aware the trend may have lots of life left, or possibly not so much.
Creative Tweaks -- Advanced Topic (Not required -- this is where things get more ?discretionary?)
Stops: If the entry analysis day was a large movement day, when the range between the close (which will be your entry) and the day's high or low (depending if going long or short) is huge -- like 400 to 600 pips as weve seen recently -- I sometimes am able to use 110% of ATR(10) for the entry analysis day, which I obtain from my MT4 platform, to set the initial stop. The stop is set 110% of ATR(10) from the entry price. Sometimes, the ATR(10) is larger than the range between the entry price and the day's high/low -- so I go with the usual initial stop loss approach.
This ATR approach sometimes reduces the difference between the entry & the stop loss by a significant amount on a huge movement day -- which reduces risk and allows a larger trade size -- and, Ive found that 110% of the ATR usually provides enough cushion that the stop is not hit when the trade is going to progress in the desired direction.
Exits: There are situations that occur when you may want to be creative in order to maximize your results on a trade. These normally apply only to trades that have already reached the 2nd profit target, and therefore have a stop loss at breakeven or better.
First, in the case of a large movement day -- e.g., closing price 350+ pips from the opening price -- you may want to close part of the remaining position immediately -- and continue trailing the stop for the remaining portion using the VP predicted high/low as before, or possibly with tighter stops.
In the case of a key candle or series of candles, indicating possible reversal, especially when corroborated by the VP indicators (PNI, PStr, PTSDiff, PTMDiff, PHigh, PLow) -- you may want to close all or some of the remaining position -- and either continue trailing the stop using the VP predicted high/low, or shift to using tighter stops.
=================================== ===============
Read this over, give it some thought; ask questions if you want to, and/or hold them til I get the examples posted & you can review those...
Stay cool... and, Happy Cruising!
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