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Soybeans: We think this leg down is a buying opportunity


This past week was all about the financial markets and the BOJ and FOMC. Two weeks ago, the grain markets were the center of attention specifically, the soybean market. The supply and demand report along with the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crush report provided a pretty good indication of the bean market supply and demand. Th...


Commercial Traders Are Buying The Dollar: Are You Missing Out?


The US Dollar Index has been trading sideways for nearly a year. We believe that the broad consolidation pattern is signaling a move higher and the consistent actions of the commercial trader group reinforce this notion. This makes the recent pullback a solid buying opportunity for a trend that could really get moving depending on the outcome of...


Commercial Traders Are Buying The Dollar: Are You Missing Out?


The US Dollar Index has been trading sideways for nearly a year. We believe that the broad consolidation pattern is signaling a move higher and the consistent actions of the commercial trader group reinforce this notion. This makes the recent pullback a solid buying opportunity for a trend that could really get moving depending on the outcome of...


Profit From Commercial Trader Signals


The markets are by very nature their noisiest at their most important moments. The noise punishes the early birds, paralyzes the indecisive and talks the tardy into better late than never. Early birds may take their losses or not maximize their profit potential. The indecisive discuss their 20/20 hindsight by the water cooler and the late sweat ...


Trading 101: Learn How To Spot Profitable Trading Set-Ups


Setup recognition is a huge part of trading. Being able to see the same setup across multiple markets not only provides more trading opportunities but also adds an additional layer of stress testing to the methodology. Finding a methodology that works across markets is difficult and being able to apply that methodology in a consistent basis is o...


Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?


Another week and another seven days of conflicting market information. While the domestic unemployment picture lends credence to the Fed’s actions, global economic slack leaves the world second guessing the Fed’s decision. The end result has led to bond spreads foreshadowing a global economic slowdown while the equity markets tank. We’ve written...


Trade Alert: Natural Gas Poised For Big Move


Front month natural gas futures traded all the way down to $1.802 in mid-December. Obviously, the energy sector has taken a pummeling over this past year and the market’s recent rally has sparked some new interest. However, based on the outline and chart below, we believe this is a short selling opportunity rather than the early legs of a new bu...


We Are Buying Stocks Now: Here's Why


We’d been watching the stock market closely towards the end of the year because we saw significant commercial trader selling in October and November. This placed the small speculators as the lone group still buying the market during fall’s consolidation. We mentioned this initially on December 22nd in, Small Speculators Got Greedy in the S&P 500...


How To Profit In A "Trading Environment"


The stock market is off to a horrible start this year with the S&P 500 off more than 6%, already. There’s been little argument that the prolonged sideways period has created what’s typically referred to as a, “trader’s environment.” This is simply the active management of positions as opposed to buy and hold/pray. This week, we’re going to make ...


Coffee: It's Time To Sell Rallies


Coffee futures have tacked on roughly 6.5% through the holiday sessions. Part of this has been due to El Nino weather concerns in Vietnam, which produces around 20% of the world’s Robusta (instant) coffee. Meanwhile, the extra rain El Nino has brought to the Brazilian Arabica (Starbucks) crop combined with the currency depreciation of the Brazil...


How To Profit In Thin Holiday Markets


The holiday markets are typically characterized by low volume choppy and counter-trend trading activity. This is primarily due to the slowdown of investment funds of all sorts due to year end accounting and the personal squaring of one’s books. Post-holiday markets tend to resume their previous movement as investors of all types return to the ma...


This Week Is All About The S&P 500


Now that the rate hike has been addressed there are crucial changes taking place within the S&P 500’s internal market structure. We’re seeing a major shift between the commercial and small speculator trading categories in positions as well as their degrees of certainty. We’ll dissect what this means in conjunction with the market’s declining ope...


Stack The Trading Odds In Your Favor


As a professional trader and money manager, I’ve spent more than 20 years trying to stack the odds in my favor. It began as simply as reading the brokers’ bids and offers in the S&P 500 pit to determine whether the bid or the offer was the stronger side of the market. Moving off the floor in the late 90’s meant developing new tools to read a giv...


Score Big With This Interest Rate Play


Mario Draghi and the ECB’s interest rate decision ripped through all the financial markets late last week. Volatility got a major lift as the stock market sank, the Dollar tumbled and money poured out of domestic interest rates. Unsurprisingly, in the recent pattern of the markets in general, they snapped right back. Some of the snap back surpri...


Wheat Alert: The Type Of Set-Up We Like To Buy


Holiday trading is hard. Domestic market closures and shortened trading sessions due to our own holidays can create choppy trading conditions and significant price gaps from one close to the next open. Furthermore, the current news cycle only worsens these conditions as domestically traded markets become influenced by the world’s pent up need to...


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The Big Post-Election Trade



The post-election sentiment shift in the 10-year Treasury Note futures is unprecedented. The December futures made a high of 131^00 on November 9th and had fallen all the way to 12^10 at Friday’s low. This is a 4.3% decline in the futures price. M... Read More



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