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A Guide To Alibaba’s (BABA) Record-Setting IPO

A Guide To Alibaba’s (BABA) Record-Setting IPO

Over the past month, the IPO market hasn’t provided traders and investors with many compelling opportunities as activity has dried up. With Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) lined up to go public on September 19, the IPO market will soon come to life in dramatic fashion. Demand has been so strong that its expected price range has been bumped higher to $66-$68 from the original expectation of $60-$66.  With BABA offering 320.1 million ADS, its projected proceeds of over $24.6 billion...

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Strangle Gold Into The Fed Announcement

Strangle Gold Into The Fed Announcement

Gold may drop to $1,200 an ounce, possibly breaching that level to test last December’s low at the 1183 area, thanks to a resurgent U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could signal tighter policy this week. Big Picture Spot gold staged a modest comeback in Asia on Tuesday Sept 16, rising back above $1,236 after hitting an eight-month low of $1,225.30 earlier this week. The precious metal has suffered as the dollar has climbed, geopolitical...

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Lululemon Earnings Gap Creates Trade Spot

Lululemon Earnings Gap Creates Trade Spot

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) just recently gapped up on earnings breaking through a daily downtrend line and challenging its previous downtrend.  Gap Review On September 11, 2014, LULU gapped up taking out the $43.70 pivot high of supply.  The $43.70 has become a new demand potentially establishing a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend.  On the gap day LULU traded over 28 million shares versus a daily average of 1.6 million showing us that institutions were in play on this stock...

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5 Common Misconceptions About Market Profile®

5 Common Misconceptions About Market Profile®

I was in junior high school the first time I was introduced to Market Profile. My Dad was a grain trader and the hedge manager for Ralston Purina, a huge manufacturer of animal feeds, not to mention the creators of Chex cereals and Rye Crisp crackers. He spoke of a friend, Peter Steidlmayer, who was devising a different way to look at markets. “Any interest in this, son?” Off I went on my skateboard as trading was not on my list of priorities, yet.Years later, struggling to learn to trade,...

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Spotting Unusual Options Activity In Avanir

Spotting Unusual Options Activity In Avanir

Monday saw shares of Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) soar on positives news from a mid-stage study on the company’s new Alzheimer’s drug AVP-923.  Shares climbed $5.24 (nearly 80%) on the news. Unusual Options Activity At least one trader anticipated positive news from the study.  Monday morning at between 9:38 and 9:39 am EST saw a trader come in buy 650 AVNR Sep 10 Calls for $0.39.  Less than 10 seconds later, another 1,245 contracts in the same line were purchased.  What Does This Mean?...

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Stocks: Use Sentiment To Predict Future Trend Reversals

Stocks: Use Sentiment To Predict Future Trend Reversals

Measuring investor sentiment has always played a big part in my trading. All trend reversals will almost always take place at sentiment extremes. It is just the way the markets work, when too many are bullish or bearish on the stocks, they will have high odds of reversing the trend shortly after. I developed a few short term sentiment models that measure how traders are positioning their portfolios with bonds to stocks. When it showed traders were flocking to bonds, it meant fear was in...

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Gold Update: Downtrend Still Looks Good

Gold Update: Downtrend Still Looks Good

On September 2 I wrote about an attractive short scenario in gold associated with a breakdown from a large symmetrical triangle formation. That breakdown ended up being pretty decisive. The evidence favors further downside ahead. Technical Outlook Specifically, in addition to the poor price structure, I'm looking at weekly momentum. Take a look at RSI averages at the bottom of the accompanying chart. The slow average (orange) stalled around the 50 midline in April. In the past two weeks,...

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Sixth Anniversary Of Lehman Collapse: Time To Watch Financials

Sixth Anniversary Of Lehman Collapse: Time To Watch Financials

This month marks the sixth year after Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11, an act that served as a precursor to market meltdown of October 2008.   Six years later, and despite the amazing recovery for the general market since the market bottomed in 2009, the financials as a sector continues to lag.  Figure 1, the 10-year PerfChart for the S&P Sector ETFs, depicts the Financials (brown) relative weakness during a decade plagued by low interest rates that created an environment for risk...

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Beyond All Doubt: The Stock Market High Is In

Beyond All Doubt: The Stock Market High Is In

I have two pieces of good news this week (for bears). 1.    You will never again have to read about how the 2011 sideways movement has caused confusion over from which date to count the last basic advance in the 2009 bull market.2.    Even if the sideways movement confusion had not been resolved previously, time has taken care of the any lingering uncertainties.[Editor's note: Read Carlson's related analysis: A Top Is Near Or Here: 6-Month Cycle Highs In The S&P 500.] The last several...

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What Is The VIX Saying Now?

What Is The VIX Saying Now?

The chart below is a long-term look at volatility (the VIX, red line).  The current low VIX readings are similar to the period of low VIX over the years of 2005, 2006, and into the beginning of 2007, which saw the S&P 500 index move from the 1200 level to north of 1500, a 25% gain (black line).   The picture in VIX continues to suggest that the current bull trend remains in force.The last period of sustained low VIX (2005 - 07) preceded our last financial crisis but it is worth noting...

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S&P 500: Beware The Ides Of September

S&P 500: Beware The Ides Of September

There is a scene in Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar, where Caesar, while walking to the Senate and his eventual assassination, is warned by a soothsayer in the street: “Beware the Ides of March.” Caesar is uneasy, but ignores the warning – and is unexpectedly ambushed.It feels like something similar is happening to the stock markets. Traders are uneasy. The sharp decline in the S&P 500 index (SPX) on Friday (Sept. 12) and the further decline over the weekend looked like everybody...

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COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

COT Data: What Can You Learn From Small Speculators?

I’ve been working with the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders’ Data for many years and the most consistent results have typically been following in the commercial traders’ footpaths. This is exactly what Larry Williams refers to when he talks about, “trading with the elephants.” Trading system design comes from finding a fundamental premise about the markets and testing it going forward. I am aware of the neural network argument that implies that the models they find are beyond our abilities to...

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Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Larry ...

Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Larry ...

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How to Break the Habit of Erratic Trading Performance

How to Break the Habit of Erratic Trading Performance

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Finding the Big Moves in Forex with VantagePoint and ...

Finding the Big Moves in Forex with VantagePoint and ...

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