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Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

If you are a trader, you need volatility in the markets to reach your goals. The toughest market to trade is one that sits in a tight range, and stays there without much movement in either direction.  A stagnant market can be taxing on one’s mind, and if you are participant, it can frustrate you and grind on you emotionally as well. When we are frustrated and make emotional decisions, they usually don’t work out well. On the flipside, a highly volatile market can be challenging as well....

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ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) had a strong down day yesterday (Mar. 25) and settled at the bottom of the daily range again, the third day this week that it has failed to show a late-afternoon rally. The futures closed at 2053.75, 31 points below the previous close, on heavier volume. The ES moved  moved step-by-step to test each of the breakout points established by last week's FOMC rally: 2078-76.50, 2064.50-66.50 and 2057.50-59.50. Those levels slowed the selling...

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How Traders Are Betting Against Tech Stocks

How Traders Are Betting Against Tech Stocks

Leading the sell-off of the major U.S. equity indices on March 25th was the NASDAQ, and, more specifically, it was the semiconductor stocks. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF dropped nearly 5% on more than three times the average daily volume. For the week, the semiconductor ETF is off by more than 6%, which may lead you to believe that this is overblown and has probably run its course. However, when you look at technical analysis (the charts) and bearish options order flow, the...

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Market Review and Forecast: Soaking Wet

Market Review and Forecast: Soaking Wet

I forecast “a little more rain,” but traders on Wednesday encountered a hurricane of selling. And I don’t think it is over. Yesterday, I published a Volume Profile chart of the day session in the Nasdaq Futures to show the gaps, which act as targets in more serious corrections. The next gap to fill is at 4314.75, but the two more lie nearby at 4292 and 4210 (not shown on this chart). While a bounce is possible at any time, I expect these gap-fill levels to be attained. 4210 coincides with...

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Channel Gold Higher

Channel Gold Higher

Gold futures moved up a fifth straight session to end at a near three-week high on Tuesday, with traders opting for the safe haven appeal of the precious metal as equities in the U.S. ticked lower amid continued worries over Greece's financial woes. Since the Fed announcement, the Dollar has been under duress while Gold has rallied mostly due to heavy short-covering in the market. Looking at the chart above, the first major leg down from the highs made in January fell 119.00. However,...

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Over the last 12 months, Macau casino gaming stocks are down by an average of 50% as the world’s largest casino-gaming market experienced an unprecedented decline in gross gaming revenues (GGR). GGR in Macau experienced its first yearly decline since data became publicly available in 2002, falling by 2.6% last year to $44 billion as a result of the Chinese government’s anti-graft movement, Macau’s hotel room constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy. The first two months of 2015 was more...

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Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

$1K A Day: Feasible or Fictitious? Retail traders are hypnotically attracted to spectacular profits. Futures trading room operators know this and use performance to galvanize our interest: “89.9% win rate 5 years in a row”; “$18,367.94 in 21 days”; “46,572.79 in less than a month”; “$70,183.54 in 3.5 months,” or “$1,900,336.82”. Jon Burras (Numbers do Lie, 2012) states we believe that math is an objective reality and a number stands for a very specific and quantifiable amount. To many, a...

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What You Should Know About Binary Options

What You Should Know About Binary Options

“Binary Options.” There, I've said it. Binary Options are the red-headed-step-child of the investing world and for good reason. While at heart, they are a viable means of market speculation, in practice, they are often nothing more than a smokescreen for scam artists. This is primarily because they, as a vehicle for speculation, came to life on the Internet in the gray areas between countries, jurisdictions, and regulatory bodies. What you need to know is that not all binary options are...

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Hot Cocoa May Be Cooling Off

Hot Cocoa May Be Cooling Off

Fundamentals point to a Call Selling Opportunity in a “Back Page” Market Last week’s strong US Employment report gave the proverbial “all clear” to the US economy and stoked speculation that interest rates are destined to increase as early as this summer. This had added extra fuel to the ongoing rally in the US Dollar. The continuing strength in the dollar has been a macro force weighing on prices of a variety of commodities in recent months.  Cocoa has been one market to buck that trend...

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Is Now a Good Time To Invest In The U.S?

Is Now a Good Time To Invest In The U.S?

While the rest of the world is struggling economically, the U.S seems to be a class apart. The world’s largest economy continues to show positive signs of full recovery with jobs growth and the unemployment rate showing significant improvement one month to the other. Some analysts are yet to be convinced by the U.S economic growth, which has been rising significantly one quarter to the other since last year. They are of the opinion that the current growth is not well mirrored in the real...

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The Short Strangle: A Risky Income Generator

The Short Strangle: A Risky Income Generator

I really don’t like being naked short options as a rule. The prospect of potentially unlimited risk would keep me up at night. But then, you, dear readers, are not me. I am a risk adverse and conservative options trader, but that doesn’t mean that you have to be. Anyway, I’m an options educator now and not an advisor and as such see it as my responsibility to talk about all option strategies. The short strangle is being short an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put, each equidistant...

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Did The US Dollar Index Just Lose Its Mojo?

Did The US Dollar Index Just Lose Its Mojo?

Just prior to the March 18, FOMC meeting, the US dollar index, DXY, put in its highest mark in 12 years, 100.39 on March 13.  Since the March 18 FOMC and Yellen's dovish press conference, the dollar has stalled and given ground versus both major and EM currencies.  Late Tuesday DXY was 97.19. As of now we'd characterize this as a pullback in a bullish trend. Almost everything seems to have been driven, at least in part, by dollar strength since late last year.  The flip side of course, is...

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