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Grain Update: Mother Nature Shines On Planting Season

Grain Update: Mother Nature Shines On Planting Season

Monday’s crop progress report put beans planted at 71% versus the 10 year average of 74%.  Even with all of the rain, we are still at a fast pace which has traders talking of 1-2 million more acres to be planted compared to the March 31st planted acreage report.  Near perfect weather called for in the 10 day forecast of warmer and drier should have bean planters finishing up, giving us a potential break down to the $9.00 area followed by short covering by trend following funds that entered...

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Stocks: The Slow Summer Grind

Stocks: The Slow Summer Grind

The S&P 500 mini-futures (ES) closed at 2106.75 yesterday (Tuesday) down a little more than two points from the previous close, after a day of trading that resembled nothing so much as the day that preceded it. The ES broke out briefly above the intermediate-term resistance two weeks ago, and ever since has been trying to take it back. We have seen a succession of lower highs and lower lows as the market pulls back inside the broad consolidation range where it has spent all of the...

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The Nasdaq Balancing Act

The Nasdaq Balancing Act

Although the Nasdaq futures have a nagging unfilled gap between 4428-4444, the NQ has been consolidating in a balanced manner. It may not feel ‘balanced’ if you are trying to trade it intraday, as the rallies and declines are rather abrupt. But if you look at the Volume Profile chart, the gold dashed line is the Volume Point of Control (VPOC). Price action over the last few weeks has been distributed in a semi-Gaussian manner around this central “volume pivot” with symmetrical secondary...

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Forex: Aussie Rallies On Lack Of RBA Action

Forex: Aussie Rallies On Lack Of RBA Action

The Aussie/dollar (AUD/USD) is in the midst of a strong rebound after price once again respected the .7550 region.  Last night the currency pair got a boost after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 2.0% and failed to signal a future rate cut despite a sluggish economy.  Mining spending remains vulnerable to further cuts and elevated housing prices are raising fears of a housing bubble.  The rebound also benefited to some profit taking that hit the U.S. dollar early in...

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US Stocks: Get Ready A Black Hole Drop Is Coming

US Stocks: Get Ready A Black Hole Drop Is Coming

The SPX (SP 500 index) has been trading within a bearish wedge that started at the 2009 lows. The top of the wedge is getting tighter and tighter and eventually, it will break and the waterfall down will start. The Street has taken notice of this extreme bearish pattern, as we have seen each new high over the last 9 months last no more than 2 weeks —and lately, it hasn’t lasted more than 4 days.     But trying to predict the crash is a losing game and by the time it happens (it will...

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Wheat Reality

Wheat Reality

Last Thursday’s weekly export sales report for wheat showed 115 thousand metric tons. That was old crop numbers with new crop numbers coming in at 142 thousand.  Clearly demand is not a driving force and for months hasn’t been in wheat.  Demand looks to remain weak until the new crop in the field shows its strength.  The Monday’s crop condition report showed 45% of the crop in good to excellent condition. We need over 60% good to excellent condition to make us a primary port of origin for...

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5000 Years of Data

5000 Years of Data

Systematic futures traders are invariably plagued by the small set of available daily data upon which to develop and test strategies. The last data revolution was the introduction of 24 hour electronic contracts starting in 2000.  Only a few symbols go back that far and many of them start much later.   Although some futures have a longer history, it is not helpful to back-test prior to 2000 because markets changed radically with the introduction of electronic futures. Consequently...

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Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

AA, the largest aluminum producer in the U.S., returned nearly 50% in 2014, as the combination of rising aluminum prices (along with rising regional price premiums over London Metal Exchange prices), efficiency gains, and a 7% growth in global aluminum demand drove AA’s 2014 net income to $268 million, its highest calendar-year profit since 2011. For the U.S. aluminum industry as a whole—taking into account the three largest U.S. aluminum companies, i.e. Alcoa (AA), Century Aluminum...

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Why You Don't Have a Trading Log and Why You Should!

Why You Don't Have a Trading Log and Why You Should!

Every educator worth their salt will tell you “It’s important to log your trades”, to keep a record of your trades in order to track your progress. Almost all traders fail to heed this advice. In fact, of the traders I work with, I’d say that less than 5% actually keep a consistent trade history. It’s not just laziness at play here; there are practical reasons and psychological reasons that make keeping a journal a challenge. Journaling isn’t something specific to trading; it helps with...

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The Human Element of Trading

The Human Element of Trading

In this article I am going to, (hopefully) open you up to an aspect of trading that is ignored by most traders: The human element of trading isn’t so much about facing up to the fact that you may not be infallible in your eyes, heavens forbid, rather it is about understanding the synergy between your “beingness” as a human and how you experience the human condition, including trading as an integral part of oneness, as the Buddhists would call it.   “Human condition, trading, oneness,...

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Are You Taking The Markets Personally?

Are You Taking The Markets Personally?

Don’t fool yourself: I know that you take it personally when a trade goes against you, and how can you not? After all your trading results reflect your skill level as a trader, or don’t they?   I have been trading since 2001. Like many traders before me I started out with a big ego and a strong “can do” attitude. It wasn’t long though before the market showed me a very different aspect of myself. I became aware of a very different persona, a persona that was weak, ego driven responding...

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US Stock Futures: Hunting For Gaps

US Stock Futures: Hunting For Gaps

The gap hunt-and-fill process is something markets become obsessed with during corrective phases. As noted last week, although the S&P futures closed a significant gap last Thursday, which represented a timely act of technical housekeeping, the Nasdaq futures have a nagging unfilled gap between 4428-4444 that beckons.  At this time, the non-committal chop fest reflects this one key technical difference between the S&P and the Nasdaq. On Monday, the NQ began the day by testing...

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Forex

Matching the Current Market Conditions with the Right Trading Style

Matching the Current Market Conditions with the Right Trading Style

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Options

The Vigilante Investor's Bulletproof Options

The Vigilante Investor's Bulletproof Options

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Futures/Commodities

Find Maneageable Trading Opportunities with the Larry Williams ...

Find Maneageable Trading Opportunities with the Larry Williams ...

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