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Crude Oil - What Commercial Traders Know

Crude Oil - What Commercial Traders Know

Crude oil’s slide has been well documented along with the causes and consequences. Prices have recovered a bit as we suggested they would, ahead of both the January and March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings as detailed in, “Commercial Traders Ahead of the Fed.” The importance of this statement lies in the access the heads of the oil industry have to Washington. The energy industry is simply too big and too well informed to be caught off guard by legislative actions. As the...

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Fib Projection Reached- Super Bullish

Fib Projection Reached- Super Bullish

Volume Profile is most useful during pullbacks, not when markets are making forays into uncharted territory. For that super bullish phase, I use Fibonacci extensions and weekly pivots. One of the best ways to use Fib projections is to look for a confluence from two different ranges. We have a Fib confluence (127% and 162%) around the 4532 area, which happens to be where the futures are trading on Sunday evening as I write this. There is also a weekly half pivot here, so a pullback to close...

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SPX: Choppy Week Ahead

SPX: Choppy Week Ahead

Last week Last week the S&P 500, the large-cap equities index, rose 1.75%, a decent rally for the week, and made a new all-time high for the close. It ended the week at 2117.69, just a few pennies above the high close set on March 2. The gain for the week was about 36 points. It is encouraging to see a new high – the SPX also made an new intraday high at 2120.92 on Friday – and the Bulls will feast on the idea that the market closed near the high for the week and above the high of the...

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Old School Advice

Old School Advice

Even with the prevalence of high speed trading and other complex algorithmic systems, it is often the tried and true strategies that can help you be successful over the long haul. Many investors try to reinvent the wheel, but often the most successful traders today have patterned their trading styles after those of the great traders of the past. W.D. Gann “How to Make Profits in Commodities” (Lambert-Gann Publishing Company) by W.D. Gann was written in the 1940s and updated in the early...

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Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

“Trade what you see, not what you feel.” This axiom of trading seems so right, it is undeniable that all traders need to strive to achieve it.  The only problem with this oft quoted remark is what you see is influenced by what you are feeling – no exceptions.  If only traders could see the facts clearly without feeling, then they would be freed from the tyranny of emotional reasoning.  Then trading would be easy.  But nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is all thinking (all...

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Sell in May And Go Away -- Not So Fast

Sell in May And Go Away -- Not So Fast

Anecdotes are great fun for the media and sometimes they do come true, but are they something we should follow closely?  The calendar is full of them, such as the January effect,  the Summer Rally, “Bears have Thanksgiving, Bulls have Christmas”, the Santa Claus Rally, and the one coming up next week, telling us to get out for the summer, Many of these did the opposite of what they were supposed to do in 2014 – who do we blame for a failure of the Santa Claus Rally?  Santa Claus? (if you...

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Crude, Headed Back To $50?

Crude, Headed Back To $50?

A lot of people follow the commodity markets. Most have a favorite contract that they trade or chart. Some will follow a particular sector like grains, currencies or interest rate futures.  As active as some people’s interest is in commodity markets, they may only have a tunnel vision for one particular contract. It seems like no matter what contract people focus on, they always know the price of crude oil. After seeing crude oil trend lower since November, the market is now trading higher...

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Worry No Worry – Earnings Growth Will Prevail

Worry No Worry – Earnings Growth Will Prevail

The market is, admittedly, on shaky footing right now. Economic data is not quite as strong as we would like to see, the FOMC and their rate hike is just around the corner, and 1st quarter earnings growth is not expected to be good. I could go on and on about how the economic trends are still pointing to growth, or about how the FOMC rate hike has been expected for so long it has no choice but to be factored into current market values, but I won't. When you boil away all the day-to-day...

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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles. This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters. Using the wrong instrument...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy (GDDY), a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public. Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy (ETSY), is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range. The IPO features prominent...

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Expect a Gap Fill in the NQ

Expect a Gap Fill in the NQ

Yesterday I noted that “Mondays belong to the bears” and forecast a morning sell off starting during the first 90 minutes that would head toward the unfilled gap around 4489, with eventual continuation to the lower boundary of the Upper Value Area, now at 4482. The Upper Value Area is colored light green on the chart and has this yawning gap. While I do expect this gap to be filled sooner than later, the gap fill scenario is a bit obvious right now, and markets love to fade the obvious. So...

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SPX - Triangle Breakout Target Is...?

SPX - Triangle Breakout Target Is...?

Last week I wrote about the SPX trading within a range-For Now! The pattern has been well publish (a triangle) and many are now looking for a possible top target for the pattern. It is pretty simple to figure out. You just take the points from top/bottom of the triangle and add them to where it broke out and that is your target. So the high for the triangle pattern came on 02/25/15 and the price was 2119. The low came on 03/11/15 and the price was 2039. 2119-2039 is 110 points. The...

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Forex

Identify Day Trading Opportunities in Forex with VantagePoint's ...

Identify Day Trading Opportunities in Forex with VantagePoint's ...

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Options

How to Spot Accelerations in Stocks and Options

How to Spot Accelerations in Stocks and Options

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