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SPX: The Fed To The Rescue … Again

SPX: The Fed To The Rescue … Again

The S&P 500 mini futures (ESH5) got the oversold bounce we were predicting yesterday, thanks to what has become the “new normal” – an unofficial and sometimes covert intervention from the Federal Reserve anytime the market shows signs of faltering. Yesterday it was a closed-door presentation by Fed Chair Janet Yellen to a group of congressional Democrats indicating that there will be no “immediate” increase in interest rates. The US equity market, which had been trading lower, promptly...

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A Fan of Volatility? Think March E-Mini S&P 500

A Fan of Volatility? Think March E-Mini S&P 500

If you are a fan of volatility and wild rides in the markets, you are probably enjoying the first month of trading for 2015. Central Banks around the globe have made things interesting, as some of their decisions have sent secondary markets into frenzy. Crude oil continues to grab attention, and it has consumers and investors both asking, “How low can it go? “ In the Eurozone, we started off the week wondering how elections results in Greece would be felt in the currency markets. The euro...

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Could AutoNation Be A Target Of Soros?

Could AutoNation Be A Target Of Soros?

On January 25th, CNBC’s Phil LaBeau reported that representatives of the Soros Management Fund (run by billionaire George Soros) were in California to attend the National Automobile Dealers Association’s annual meeting and they spoke with car dealer owners about possible deals. If Soros does decide to take a stake or acquire an entire dealership, this would follow Warren Buffett’s purchase of Van Tuyl Group last October (5th largest dealership in the US). Valuation AutoNation (AN) is a $7B...

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Futures Market Review and Forecast: Three Downside Targets

Futures Market Review and Forecast: Three Downside Targets

As I noted yesterday, “another move below the Floor increases the odds of much lower prices (1984 and then 1962).”   The Floor support at 2027 was tested for several hours on Wednesday, but turned into resistance after the FOMC announcement. This puts three levels in play to the downside: 1984, 1963 and 1842. A Note on Volume Profile The histogram on the left side of the chart shows the volume distribution in the S&P futures for the entire year of 2014 through today. Key levels are...

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ESH5: S&P Mini Futures Bust Support, Crash, And Burn

ESH5: S&P Mini Futures Bust Support, Crash, And Burn

Early Wednesday morning, we were leaning long on the S&P500 mini futures (ESH5), hitching our wagon to modestly hopeful technical indicators. The futures didn't fall out of bed in the overnight trading, and the ESH5 clawed back up to the 20/40-day moving average line from the previous day's decline. No real strength, but enough to dull the fear and encourage the greed. By the end of the day session Wednesday, the market had broken all of the support levels and closed near the low of...

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Learn To Navigate Your Assets In Times Of Big Change

Learn To Navigate Your Assets In Times Of Big Change

One Risk Aspect Often Overlooked When Assessing Risk There are many aspects to trading risk. The risk to capital exposure due to excessive position size relative to one’s stops is obvious. Co-relation of your positions in today’s highly co-related markets is another aspect that must be considered, and, of course, you know about the risk of not diversifying your assets. But have you ever considered the risk you are assuming from your brokerage account? I am talking about your brokers’...

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Three Questions With The Power To Transform Your Trading

Three Questions With The Power To Transform Your Trading

There are three simple but powerful questions which can transform our trading when we ask them of ourselves consistently over time.  They are powerful because they form the basis of mental flexibility and mental agility.  Wouldn’t you like to be mentally more resilient and deft? The three questions can be asked anytime you are preparing for trading, executing, and managing trades, or reviewing your trading results — in other words, anytime you are engaged in a trading-related activity. ...

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Look To Platinum And The PGM in 2015

Look To Platinum And The PGM in 2015

Given a growing global demand for platinum, palladium, and rhodium, three of the six metals in the platinum metals group (PGM), and the increasing cost to mine platinum, we are focusing our efforts to accumulate platinum over the course of the year. PGM, specifically platinum, is an excellent store of value and it performs well as an inflation hedge.  One could argue that platinum – and the other meals in the PGM - are a better long term hedge than gold, as there are a number of industrial...

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Taking A Peek Inside (the) Box

Taking A Peek Inside (the) Box

The volatility roiling the broader markets has, at least thus far, kept a lid on the IPO market in 2015. To date, just two companies have braved the elements with County Bancorp (ICBK) and Patriot National (PN) going public on January 16. This week, however, the IPO market will once again find itself in the spotlight as a well-known tech company makes its long-awaited debut in the public markets. Specifically, on January 22, Box, Inc. (BOX) – a provider of cloud-based storage and file...

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Expect Economic Boom In 2015

Expect Economic Boom In 2015

You should expect a US economic boom in 2015. All the signs are pointing to it. The economic trends are up, led by a positive outlook and forward momentum for US labor. All together, these things add up to an economy that, by many economist accounts, is growing at a pace faster than anticipated. There has been a recent slump in activity, but this is nothing more than a seasonally expected lull occurring in tandem with the end of the year and the post-holiday period. New data is already...

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Soy Bean Counting Toward A Reversal To The Upside

Soy Bean Counting Toward A Reversal To The Upside

Since the release of the January 12th crop report, soy beans have dropped over .85 cents.  The key question is, how much more down side risk is there left?  There is a series of underlining fundamentals that could have both a bullish and bearish effect on the market.  On the bearish side, the trade believes that the late March planting intentions report will show 5% more soybeans will be planted this year.  This 5% increase comes at the expense of corn, due to soybean’s higher price.  On...

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SPX: Nice Ride, But A Little Wild

SPX: Nice Ride, But A Little Wild

On Monday (Jan. 26), we warned that US equity markets were nervous, and vulnerable to bad news. Tuesday we saw just how vulnerable. What will happen on Wednesday? More of the same is our guess. Lots of volatility, especially around the Fed Open Market Committee minutes, which will be released at 2:00 pm. Despite the selling panic at the start of the day, we remain cautiously bullish. Tuesday started off looking like the bloodbath the Bears have been longing for. The Globex futures on the...

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