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Grains: Poised For Short-Covering Rally?

Grains: Poised For Short-Covering Rally?

Monday’s crop progress report for wheat showed 45% of the crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the week prior and well over last year’s 30%.  Key producers like Kansas came in at 30%, Oklahoma at 36%, and Nebraska at 36%.  Better conditions were seen in Colorado at 53% and Texas 56%. WXRISK.com, the Ag weather site, softened their forecast that previously called for  the next 15 days to be excessively wet in the western wheat belt with up to 8 inches of rain falling in...

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Fed Speakers, Data Could Jolt E-Mini Into Action

Fed Speakers, Data Could Jolt E-Mini Into Action

The S&P 500 mini futures had a nice little recovery yesterday after Tuesday's dump. Now we need to see if the recovery continues, or if the market, which is now back to the intermediate term support/resistance area, will go up or down from here. The current contract (ESM5) had an inside day yesterday, trading within Tuesday's day session range, but it pushed the price back up above 2119, which was April's high and the top boundary of the trading range for the past three months. The...

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Can Apple (AAPL) Lead This Market Higher?

Can Apple (AAPL) Lead This Market Higher?

Since its high in March, Apple has been moving in a sideways consolidation with highs at 133.50 – 134.54 and lows at 121.63 – 122.50.  Over the same period of time the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) has been stronger, showing an upward sloping channel.  This relationship could easily change based on Apple’s resolution of its current consolidation range. The volume-at-price histogram in AAPL reveals the current high volume area at 124.70 – 129.20.  If the current test to 129.20 is met with buyer...

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Dow Transports Flash Death Cross Warning Signal

Dow Transports Flash Death Cross Warning Signal

Dow Theorists— we have a problem.  It appears to be the beginning of a larger move on the larger timeframe versus the ending move on a smaller timeframe in the iShares Dow Jones Transports ETF (IYT.)  A Little Background The trouble started back in March 2015 where we started to produce lower highs after making a triple top in the $165 area.  This was the first warning sign.  The last attempt at breakout resulted in a selloff down to the 200 day moving average which produced a picture...

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Wheat Reality

Wheat Reality

Last Thursday’s weekly export sales report for wheat showed 115 thousand metric tons. That was old crop numbers with new crop numbers coming in at 142 thousand.  Clearly demand is not a driving force and for months hasn’t been in wheat.  Demand looks to remain weak until the new crop in the field shows its strength.  The Monday’s crop condition report showed 45% of the crop in good to excellent condition. We need over 60% good to excellent condition to make us a primary port of origin for...

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5000 Years of Data

5000 Years of Data

Systematic futures traders are invariably plagued by the small set of available daily data upon which to develop and test strategies. The last data revolution was the introduction of 24 hour electronic contracts starting in 2000.  Only a few symbols go back that far and many of them start much later.   Although some futures have a longer history, it is not helpful to back-test prior to 2000 because markets changed radically with the introduction of electronic futures. Consequently...

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Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

AA, the largest aluminum producer in the U.S., returned nearly 50% in 2014, as the combination of rising aluminum prices (along with rising regional price premiums over London Metal Exchange prices), efficiency gains, and a 7% growth in global aluminum demand drove AA’s 2014 net income to $268 million, its highest calendar-year profit since 2011. For the U.S. aluminum industry as a whole—taking into account the three largest U.S. aluminum companies, i.e. Alcoa (AA), Century Aluminum...

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Why You Don't Have a Trading Log and Why You Should!

Why You Don't Have a Trading Log and Why You Should!

Every educator worth their salt will tell you “It’s important to log your trades”, to keep a record of your trades in order to track your progress. Almost all traders fail to heed this advice. In fact, of the traders I work with, I’d say that less than 5% actually keep a consistent trade history. It’s not just laziness at play here; there are practical reasons and psychological reasons that make keeping a journal a challenge. Journaling isn’t something specific to trading; it helps with...

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The Human Element of Trading

The Human Element of Trading

In this article I am going to, (hopefully) open you up to an aspect of trading that is ignored by most traders: The human element of trading isn’t so much about facing up to the fact that you may not be infallible in your eyes, heavens forbid, rather it is about understanding the synergy between your “beingness” as a human and how you experience the human condition, including trading as an integral part of oneness, as the Buddhists would call it.   “Human condition, trading, oneness,...

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Options: Roll The Dice With Las Vegas Sands

Options: Roll The Dice With Las Vegas Sands

When you can have something, you don’t want it.  When you want something, you can’t have it.  That is often the case with option spreads, especially those from the credit side.  The proposition of selling option premium is great.  Sell it, forget about it and collect your check at expiration. Here's the catch The problem tends to be that when it makes sense to sell premium (expecting little or no movement), IV is so slow that the odds that you have to lay makes it prohibitive.  When you...

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The Case For Smaller Rate Hikes More Often

The Case For Smaller Rate Hikes More Often

You would be foolish to believe the Fed is going to stand at zero interest rates forever.  The policy seems to have been the right move to avoid another Great Depression, though there are always the 'Monday am quarterbacks' who seem to know more than the Committee (let's be thankful we only have one group only to make decisions). The Fedspeak of late has been not about if but when rate hikes could/should occur.  The pause in the argument is always about the data, the Fed's interpretation...

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Are Stock Traders Packing It In For The Summer?

Are Stock Traders Packing It In For The Summer?

In Tuesday's article we warned that a short-term retracement was likely. In Tuesday's trading, we got it. The S&P 500 mini futures (ES) not only broke below the 20-day moving average, it dropped even lower to the 40-day exponential moving average (ema), and was heading lower still until the customary 3:00 pm rally into the close left it with a modest bounce. The market looked naked, clinging desperately to the faded hopes inspired by last week's rally. It was crying time for the bulls....

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Find Maneageable Trading Opportunities with the Larry Williams ...

Find Maneageable Trading Opportunities with the Larry Williams ...

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Free Personality Test with Dr. Kenneth Reid, Ph.D.

Free Personality Test with Dr. Kenneth Reid, Ph.D.

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Essential Concepts that YOU can use to make an Income in Today’s Market!

Essential Concepts that YOU can use to make an Income in Today’s Market!

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