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Trading Tactics: The Fibonacci Myth

Trading Tactics: The Fibonacci Myth

Fibonacci numbers or sequences have been written about extensively in mathematical literature.  They occur in the sum of shadow diagonals in Pascal’s Triangle and have unique divisibility properties.  In nature, these numbers describe the arrangement of leaves on a tree stem, the flowering of an artichoke and the arrangement of a pine cone.  This amounts to nothing more than defining symmetrical patterns of a few natural curiosities. Let's Compare This stands in stark distinction to such...

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Trading Psychology: Complexity Theory Says More Is Different

Trading Psychology: Complexity Theory Says More Is Different

Last week I wrote an article on why Bull Markets can be dangerous. Simply put, they often lull us into complacency and tempt us to ignore standard risk controls. Then, when volatility increases, we are not prepared for the rug to move and the walls to shake. There’s a principle in Complexity Theory that says: More is different. It means that in complex dynamic systems, arithmetic increases in a single parameter can produce qualitative (as well as exponential) changes in the stability of a...

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The Nike Gap: Just Do It

The Nike Gap: Just Do It

On September 26, 2014 Nike, Inc. (NKE) gapped up after the company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter fiscal results.  The stock gapped up from the previous day’s close of $79.75 to $87.93.  NKE has been in a strong uptrend since 2010 and keeps pushing new highs.   Since there is no negative price resistance to the left in NKE’s chart, it looks like it has a solid future. Volume NKE traded over 17.5 million shares on the gap day.  Their normal average is 3.7 million which shows...

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Unusual Options Activity: Mellanox Technologies On The Move

Unusual Options Activity: Mellanox Technologies On The Move

Mellanox Technologies (Nasdaq: MLNX, 42.58) is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California and Yokneam, Israel, and provides ethernet and infiniband switches for servers and storage used in enterprise data centers.MLNX shares are up just over 8% in 2014, performing comparably to the broader market.  Price action has been choppy, with shares trading in a 52-week range of $30.58-$46.04. The Trade Twenty-six minutes in Monday’s session, we saw a trader come in and buy 1,985 MLNX Oct 44 Calls for...

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High Risk For the Bulls: SPX Rally To 2,010

High Risk For the Bulls: SPX Rally To 2,010

Last week, I mentioned the Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average) was trading within a bearish wedge and could drop 1000 points. It is one third of the way to that 11,200 target, if that pattern does play out.But if history is our guide, then the gap left open on the SPX (S&P 500 index) at 2010 will be filled before any meaningful drop starts. So, even though the bigger picture pattern is looking much lower, you have to expect a rally to shake out the bears. Again, this isn’t certain, but...

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Natural Gas Breaks Out

Natural Gas Breaks Out

If you can stomach the risk of an inherently risky market, natural gas futures are in the process of breaking out from a platform base. What's more, a lack of any technical resistance overhead heightens the probability of follow-through buying in the coming weeks. Chart Picture I didn't add any indicators to this chart because the price action alone tells the story. From July through September a floor emerged at 3.82; four attempts by the bears to break it failed. Two tests confirmed a...

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How To Take Advantage Of High Frequency Trader Price Action

How To Take Advantage Of High Frequency Trader Price Action

Recognizing the High Frequency Trader HFT footprint on a stock chart, presents ways for individual traders to use the candlestick patterns created to their advantage. HFT orders are algorithms which are computer programs that are automated, and occur at speeds on the millisecond scale. Therefore traders will find their orders have been front run by the HFTs, if they try to enter after an HFT order triggers.The HFT footprint is unique on a stock chart, and there is no other technical...

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Women On Wall Street

Women On Wall Street

A Discussion about Optimizing Career Development on Wall StreetHosted By NYSSA with collaboration from the MTA’s Women in Technical Analysis Group.Billed as a discussion about challenges faced by women on Wall Street, the Career Chat at NYSSA on September 3, 2014, was a well attended event which focused on keys to help women on Wall Street propel their careers forward.  The speakers at the event were the charismatic and energetic Carla Harris of Morgan Stanley and the insightful Linda...

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The Euro Will Reach Parity With The U.S. Dollar In 2-3 Years: Stay Short

The Euro Will Reach Parity With The U.S. Dollar In 2-3 Years: Stay Short

In the last six months, the Euro declined by 5% against the U.S. dollar as it became apparent that the European Central Bank (the ECB) has fallen far behind the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) in its interest rate policymaking cycle. While the Fed is set to end its “quantitative easing” policy of asset purchases this year and to raise interest rates by next year (with a target fed funds rate of 3.75% by the end of 2017), the ECB is just beginning to formulate a quantitative easing policy of...

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America's Role In the Middle East: Friends and Foes

America's Role In the Middle East: Friends and Foes

The Professional Traders OpinionWho’s on First? (Abbot & Costello, circa 1952)Oddly enough, an ascribed Arabic proverb, dating to the 4th century BC, suggests “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”   There is now a 21st century edited version of that proverb; once again emanating from the land of Arabia but this time will need Aristotle to discern the logic; it goes something like this: “the enemy of my enemy is only my friend until my enemy is overthrown by America, a new government is...

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Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 Is Here: Key Levels For Traders

Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 Is Here: Key Levels For Traders

The iPhone 6 is here!  That’s great for Apple device users but what about AAPL traders?  Here are the important trading levels for AAPL stock. The trend in AAPL is pointed higher in the daily and weekly time frames, which gives the larger bias clearly to the bulls.  With this as a starting point, dips to support can be viewed as buying opportunities.  Nearby support is 93.28 - 96.15.  The top of this zone of support was tested and held in September.  The lower boundary of the ascending...

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US Dollar Breakout: End To Stock Bull, Renewed Commodity Bear

US Dollar Breakout: End To Stock Bull, Renewed Commodity Bear

It seems nothing can stop the U.S. dollar. Since its low in April it has closed higher in four out of five months and is up almost 8.00% since then.  While a run like that is in need of a rest there are some big issues that need to be considered now. DXY broke out of a six-year triangle this month. Breaking to the upside from a triangle is bullish. That triangle is essentially a six-year base and should give DXY some serious “legs” for the future. As the world’s most important commodities...

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