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Dow Transports Flash Death Cross Warning Signal

Dow Transports Flash Death Cross Warning Signal

Dow Theorists— we have a problem.  It appears to be the beginning of a larger move on the larger timeframe versus the ending move on a smaller timeframe in the iShares Dow Jones Transports ETF (IYT.)  A Little Background The trouble started back in March 2015 where we started to produce lower highs after making a triple top in the $165 area.  This was the first warning sign.  The last attempt at breakout resulted in a selloff down to the 200 day moving average which produced a picture...

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The Target Has Been Set: Nasdaq Gap Test

The Target Has Been Set: Nasdaq Gap Test

I have been wondering when the big gap test would finally start… and Tuesday was the day. In yesterday’s review and forecast I indicated that key initial support was at 4485-4491. On Tuesday morning we quickly took that level out and then ended the day with a perky bounce that is likely to retest that level from below. So, at this time, what was recently key support is now important resistance, as marked on the chart with a red dashed line.   The ultimate target, however, is the large gap...

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Are Stock Traders Packing It In For The Summer?

Are Stock Traders Packing It In For The Summer?

In Tuesday's article we warned that a short-term retracement was likely. In Tuesday's trading, we got it. The S&P 500 mini futures (ES) not only broke below the 20-day moving average, it dropped even lower to the 40-day exponential moving average (ema), and was heading lower still until the customary 3:00 pm rally into the close left it with a modest bounce. The market looked naked, clinging desperately to the faded hopes inspired by last week's rally. It was crying time for the bulls....

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Will Gravity Tug Nasdaq Back To Earth?

Will Gravity Tug Nasdaq Back To Earth?

Both the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 are probing new high territory, while the major indices look tired. Institutional funds have been flowing out of U.S. equities since the first of the year, which accounts for the choppy and lackluster performance of the major indices (the S&P is up 3.6%). That said, most institutions don’t invest in small caps or the Nasdaq 100, which is perhaps one reason these two indices continue to be tradable. i.e. they can generate multi-day trends.   ...

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This Is A Great Environment For Stock Picking

This Is A Great Environment For Stock Picking

It always strikes me with curiosity that when markets are at a crossroads we start reaching for expert opinions.  We hate uncertainty, which creates doubt and usually the wrong decision.  For so many of us being long the market has been the right decision, yet the game has to turn at some point, right?  And who wants to be left holding the bag when everyone else has cleaned house.  How do we get out of the way, and when will we know it? That, of course is a market timing bet - and as a...

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Wheat Reality

Wheat Reality

Last Thursday’s weekly export sales report for wheat showed 115 thousand metric tons. That was old crop numbers with new crop numbers coming in at 142 thousand.  Clearly demand is not a driving force and for months hasn’t been in wheat.  Demand looks to remain weak until the new crop in the field shows its strength.  The Monday’s crop condition report showed 45% of the crop in good to excellent condition. We need over 60% good to excellent condition to make us a primary port of origin for...

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5000 Years of Data

5000 Years of Data

Systematic futures traders are invariably plagued by the small set of available daily data upon which to develop and test strategies. The last data revolution was the introduction of 24 hour electronic contracts starting in 2000.  Only a few symbols go back that far and many of them start much later.   Although some futures have a longer history, it is not helpful to back-test prior to 2000 because markets changed radically with the introduction of electronic futures. Consequently...

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Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

AA, the largest aluminum producer in the U.S., returned nearly 50% in 2014, as the combination of rising aluminum prices (along with rising regional price premiums over London Metal Exchange prices), efficiency gains, and a 7% growth in global aluminum demand drove AA’s 2014 net income to $268 million, its highest calendar-year profit since 2011. For the U.S. aluminum industry as a whole—taking into account the three largest U.S. aluminum companies, i.e. Alcoa (AA), Century Aluminum...

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Why You Don't Have a Trading Log and Why You Should!

Why You Don't Have a Trading Log and Why You Should!

Every educator worth their salt will tell you “It’s important to log your trades”, to keep a record of your trades in order to track your progress. Almost all traders fail to heed this advice. In fact, of the traders I work with, I’d say that less than 5% actually keep a consistent trade history. It’s not just laziness at play here; there are practical reasons and psychological reasons that make keeping a journal a challenge. Journaling isn’t something specific to trading; it helps with...

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The Human Element of Trading

The Human Element of Trading

In this article I am going to, (hopefully) open you up to an aspect of trading that is ignored by most traders: The human element of trading isn’t so much about facing up to the fact that you may not be infallible in your eyes, heavens forbid, rather it is about understanding the synergy between your “beingness” as a human and how you experience the human condition, including trading as an integral part of oneness, as the Buddhists would call it.   “Human condition, trading, oneness,...

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Don't Get Burned: Watch Yield Curve For Fed Clues

Don't Get Burned: Watch Yield Curve For Fed Clues

Interesting quote from Lawrence Lindsey at last week’s Peterson Foundation Fiscal Summit: “We’re at the point of absurdity. Maybe it made sense [ZIRP] when you had a crisis. It does not make sense now. At some point what is going to happen – and this gets to my eight or nine cataclysmic number [on a scale of 1 to 10] – is that we’re going to get a series of bad numbers – a little higher inflation, higher average hourly earnings or whatever – and the market is suddenly going to say, “Oh my...

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Chart Warns S&P 500 Could Be Near Short-Term Top

Chart Warns S&P 500 Could Be Near Short-Term Top

The S&P 500 (SPX) had a pretty interesting week in the run-up to the Memorial Day holiday. It made a new all-time high at 2134.72, and it closed Friday at 2126.06, the first time it has managed to close above the high set in April. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the range for the week was extremely narrow — roughly 14 points, which is hardly a decent range for a single day — the momentum was very weak, and the volume was very low, as it has been for most of this month. We...

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Free Personality Test with Dr. Kenneth Reid, Ph.D.

Free Personality Test with Dr. Kenneth Reid, Ph.D.

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Essential Concepts that YOU can use to make an Income in Today’s Market!

Essential Concepts that YOU can use to make an Income in Today’s Market!

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Trading Stocks with VantagePoint's Neural Index

Trading Stocks with VantagePoint's Neural Index

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Episode 2: Rules and Guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle

Episode 2: Rules and Guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle

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