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Sell Into Wheat Rallies

Sell Into Wheat Rallies

Exports account for nearly half of US wheat usage. Unfortunately the two largest importers of US wheat last year, Brazil and China, have severely reduced buying of US wheat. As a result, the US export commitment is the fourth lowest of the past ten years. In addition, East Coast hog and poultry producers have begun importing UK and French feed wheat, reducing domestic feed demand. Although futures have advanced sharply over the past two months in anticipation of lower Russian crop...

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Trading Crude Oil Using Price & Volume across Multiple Time Frames

Trading Crude Oil Using Price & Volume across Multiple Time Frames

Crude oil has had a significant decline since June 2014.  Looking back through the lens of multiple timeframes we can see how price and volume gave clear indications a large decline was about to occur.  In particular, we can see at work some of the principles first described by Richard Wyckoff nearly a century ago and how these principles can be applied for excellent trade entry and exit locations as the modern market is unfolding. A Reasonable Question You may be thinking, “How could...

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Violation of Aussie Support Favors More Downside

Violation of Aussie Support Favors More Downside

The value of the Aussie dollar to the greenback is breaching a key chart support level this week. Concurrently, momentum is showing a bearish signal. Together, these conditions place odds on deeper losses to come. As the chart below shows, the Aussie has struggled with support at 0.866 - derived from the January low - since October. Price is falling below that threshold this week after three weeks of a tepid attempt by the bulls to take the market higher.      Meanwhile, unless the market...

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The S&P 500 Is Going To Crash

The S&P 500 Is Going To Crash

Yes, the headline is true, but knowing when it is going to crash is more important than if it is going to crash. We have seen four crashes in the last 16 years, so expecting it not to crash would just be silly. I have seen that headline over and over for the last four years. Some were quick to jump on the “I told you so” crash of 2010 or the big drop in 2011, but each huge drop was quickly bid back to its former high position. Most of these “crash callers” are looking for a 2008-2009 type...

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A Megaphone May Broadcast Good News, Or Not.

A Megaphone May Broadcast Good News, Or Not.

There are a lot of reasons to be cautious about the US equity markets right now. The S&P500 large cap index (SPX) has more than tripled in the last 68 month; it has been five years since we last saw a 20% retracement. There are disturbing anomalies. Small cap equities – which usually lead the market at inflection points – are not making new highs, while the large caps chalk up new highs literally every other day, eight in the last 15 trading days, in fact. And the market just feels...

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Apple, Our Pick Then Is A Winner Now

Apple, Our Pick Then Is A Winner Now

Our end of September TraderPlanet article (published 9/29/2014) outlining our outlook for Apple (AAPL) served our traders well.  The text from the original article is here: The trend in AAPL is pointed higher in the daily and weekly time frames, which gives the larger bias clearly to the bulls.  With this as a starting point, dips to support can be viewed as buying opportunities.  Nearby support is 93.28 - 96.15.  The top of this zone of support was tested and held in September.  The lower...

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Playing Precious Metals And Not Losing Your Shirt

Playing Precious Metals And Not Losing Your Shirt

The precious metals markets, namely gold and silver, offer traders the allure of large profits.  However, high margins and unpredictable volatility are often too much for the average retail trader to handle.  Likewise, using unleveraged alternatives, such as the ETF, GLD, forces traders to face other obstacles, including inefficient price movement and hidden costs.  There are some alternative lower risk products available to those interested in dipping their toe into metals trading, but...

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Track The Dark Pools With The Balance Of Power (BOP) Indicator

Track The Dark Pools With The Balance Of Power (BOP) Indicator

The most challenging aspect of the automated-order marketplace is to find an indicator that can reveal where the Dark Pools are accumulating a stock over time, and which stocks they are quietly rotating out of to lower their held shares of a required chartered stock. Rotation and accumulation are hidden these days on Dark Pool venues that do not show the huge lot orders moving through the automated system. Before the year 2005, giant lot orders were either handled by market makers on the...

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The Consumer May Be Feeling Better this Holiday Season

The Consumer May Be Feeling Better this Holiday Season

The holiday season is just around the corner. Traders and economic watchers will be closely watching the Retail Sector given the dismal turnout by consumers in recent years. The XRT (SPDR S&P Retail ETF) peaked in 2013 and since has traded sideways, until today.  There are clues that this year may be a different season for both the consumer and retailers alike, and traders will be following the XRT to signal a breakout.  Figure 1, Weekly Chart of the XRT (SPDR S&P 500 Retail ETF)  ...

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Growing CRO Industry & Acquisition of Covance (CVD) Put INC Research IPO in Spotlight

Growing CRO Industry & Acquisition of Covance (CVD) Put INC Research IPO in Spotlight

In a very busy week for IPOs, one deal that stands out from the pack is INC Research (INCR), a Contract Research Organization (CRO) that solely focuses on conducting Phase 1 to Phase 4 clinical trials for biopharmaceutical and medical device companies. Its 8.1 million share IPO is expected to price on November 6 within a range of $17-$20, and then open for trading the following morning. There are a few primary aspects to this deal that caught my attention. First, from a fundamental...

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Where We Are Going We Don't Need Roads

Where We Are Going We Don't Need Roads

It feels as if we’ve been here before.  The previous forecast for a high to the right shoulder on 9/19/14 looked good, but it was obviously incorrect. The evidence pointing to that high was like a Ford Edsel compared to the Lamborghini-like evidence pointing to a top now – a Lamborghini powered by a flux capacitor! The Sept 9 breakdown from a flattened top counts 37 market days to the low on Oct 15. Thirty-seven market days later is Saturday, Nov 22. Lindsay wrote of a 107-day short-term...

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Understanding “Then” Might Help You Take Advantage Now

Understanding “Then” Might Help You Take Advantage Now

The recent whipsaw market has confused many traders and investors. Specifically, the rise and then fall in volatility is most puzzling. Do emotions and money swing that quickly?  On the spectrum of fear/greed, the money flows back and forth like a windshield wiper, but as the markets move higher and higher, the fear of losing gains becomes more pronounced than the fear of losing out on future gains. Back in mid-September, the VIX (aka the fear index) was coming in just above the yearly low...

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Forex

Trading Forex Cross Pairs with VantagePoint's Neural Index

Trading Forex Cross Pairs with VantagePoint's Neural Index

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