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Watch For Shifts In Commercial Traders’ Biases

Watch For Shifts In Commercial Traders’ Biases

One of the primary differences between professional traders and amateur speculators is that professional traders are only focused on the bottom line while novice traders typically find themselves in love with the story of a trade and are far more concerned with “calling the move.” It is this mentality that also leads new traders down the illusive path of homerun-hitting trading programs. Perhaps, the best example of this is attempting to profit from the short side in stock-index futures....

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What You Must Know About Inter-Market Relationships (Part 2 of 2)

What You Must Know About Inter-Market Relationships (Part 2 of 2)

Last month, we initiated the discussion of inter-market relationships focusing on the currency market’s influence over commodity prices (if you missed it, you will find it here).   Let’s turn our attention to the relationships that exist between various asset classes. Some of the conclusions from data will likely go against conventional wisdom.  Stocks and Bonds Can Go up and Down Together The oldest adage in the finance industry is, “Stocks up, bonds down”.  The quip stems from...

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SPX: Welcome To March; Watch Out For The Weather

SPX: Welcome To March; Watch Out For The Weather

The Real World February was a terrific month for the stock market, but kind of crummy for everything else. Now we have to face the ides of March, when the weather changes and the world prepares for a reset. For investors, the future is not likely to be nearly as pleasant as the past. First, the real world, and then we look at the market. In the real economy, February was a bust. The fundamental economic reports that are supposed to drive the market were almost universally dismal. US gross...

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Three Peaks And A Domed House?

Three Peaks And A Domed House?

A possible 3PDh formation can be seen on the Dow Industrials index chart. The peaks in Dec’13, July’14, and Sept’14 are the three peaks. At 9mo, the distance between peaks one and three meets Lindsay’s requirement that they be no more than 10mo apart. The Sept/Oct. decline is the separating decline, and it is the only weak park of the formation. Lindsay was adamant that there be a base composed of two tests of the low. If the base were descending (lower lows), it indicated a longer than...

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Why Does the Market Have To Do Something?

Why Does the Market Have To Do Something?

I often find myself hearing reasons or rationale for the stock market's movements, which really is just a collection of emotions all packaged together to form a result.  I have to ignore these comments. If I listen too carefully, I might get swept up trying to rationalize the action.   Without trying to be too obvious, too much fear and the market goes down, but, too much optimism, and the market goes higher.  We can see all of this played out on a chart too.  I've said many times, a...

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Price Action Forex Trends

Price Action Forex Trends

The Forex market has always been known for its strong trends. However, even in directional markets technical traders have some serious decisions to make regarding when to enter and exit the market. Often to solve these difficult trading concerns, traders rely on technical indicators. These indicators can be helpful, but more often than not, traders will find them inconsistent and lagging in nature. So what is a trader to do? One of the alternatives to a technical indicator is price action...

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ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

Yesterday On Thursday the S&P500 min-futures (ESH5) made one of those moves that just scream manipulation. The large cap index was working its way lower toward the 2100 support level, coinciding with a decline in oil that saw crude down to $47 a barrel for time, and the dollar dramatically higher, with the Euro trading at 112 U.S. cents, And then, at precisely 3:00 pm., it all turned around. Everywhere. AAPL, the Russell 2000 small cap index, the NASDAQ, the Dow and the ESH5 all tuned...

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Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another. Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it. But in 2014, President...

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Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals.  Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event.  The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart.  Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating. The erratic behavior in...

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A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term. The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe...

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A Options Play On The Loonie

A Options Play On The Loonie

The Canadian dollar is often viewed as a commodity currency. The term refers to the view that a country’s currency is tied heavily to the commodities and natural resources it produces and exports. In the case of Canada, the Loonie (as the Canadian Dollar is often referred to) often trends with crude oil. Since the beginning of the year, the Loonie has traded from just shy of 86.00 to a low of 78.49. This move has been helped and supported as crude oil has continued to slide down over the...

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Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

I expected a continuation of the correction in Apple (AAPL) on Thursday and at the open it dropped quickly toward $126, taking the Nasdaq Futures (NQ) down to 4431. However, before reaching its gap, AAPL stabilized and reversed without doing much damage. The head fake lower sets up an immediate rally in the NQ to 4525-4530. The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 Futures over the last 120 days. The High Volume Node at 4443 is now support for that move. The...

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