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Timing the Dollar Index

Timing the Dollar Index

As a broker, I get calls from clients everyday asking me what I think about this market or that market. Given the generic nature of the question, my first response is almost always, “What’s your timeframe?” It always amazes what a stumbling block this can be. The old saying is, “Plan your trade and trade your plan.” This week, we’ll look briefly at the importance of timeframes in trading the Dollar Index. As we all know, the Dollar has been in major rally mode for almost a year now and is...

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E-Mini: No Damage, But NoCheering

E-Mini: No Damage, But NoCheering

Last week The S&P500, the large-cap equity index, ended last week at  2108.29, down almost 10 points on the week, but up 16 points from the previous day's close. The index dropped almost 50 points from Monday's high to Thursday's low, then recovered 62% of the decline on Friday (May 1). This back-and-forth is making traders paranoid. The market makes a new all-time high on Monday (Apr. 27) at 2125.92, then drops like a rock to end the month, only to rally 20 points on the first day of...

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Balance Point

Balance Point

On Friday we enjoyed the expected bounce, which overshot my 4450 target by about 17 points. That’s a bullish development, because the 4450 level is a High Volume Node, which means we should expect selling there when testing it from below. The Nasdaq futures ended the week on a high note, at the Weekly Pivot (4469). This is a balance point for the market. I say that because there are numerous key levels above and below, indicated on the 60 minute chart of the day session. If the market...

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The Rise of the Ugly Duckling Set-up in a “Channelized” QE Market Environment

The Rise of the Ugly Duckling Set-up in a “Channelized” QE Market Environment

So far 2015 has been a difficult environment for investors as the indexes have “chopped and slopped” in a mostly sideways range since December of 2014. Each time the market has appeared ready to bust out to new highs and begin a potentially strong, new trend to the upside, it has backed down into its prior price range relatively quickly. Conversely, each time the market has looked like it is ready to split wide open on the downside it has suddenly found its feet and turned back to the...

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It Is All About The Storage

It Is All About The Storage

Whatever the reason for the market’s dramatic fall yesterday, it seems the market forgot about it today. Funny how that happens … Anyway, I spent some time this morning reading about energy, one of my favorite topics these days. Part of that reading was about Tesla. You gotta give it to Elan Musk. That guy is a go-getter, and, perhaps, the singular leader in the move toward renewable energy. US electric carmaker Tesla Motors has unveiled batteries that can power homes and businesses as it...

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Further Fed Confusion

Further Fed Confusion

As hard as the Fed has tried to be transparent and data dependent, there are times when they can be downright confusing.  The statement that followed the April meeting had many wondering if/when the Fed would raise rates, and certainly the response following made everyone nauseous.  The following day was also odd as European/Asian markets were able to digest the statement and come to a conclusion. It appears the Fed is frustrated, but not backed into a corner yet.  Certainly the timeline...

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Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

  2014 was a banner year for coffee prices as the market rallied off of Brazilian crop concerns right up through the critical “flowering” season in October.  But as timely rains finally arrived  (just in time - as they usually do in Brazil) the market was forced to backtrack as projected crop damage ended up being much exaggerated. This steady trend lower in prices made coffee an ideal market for call sellers for the past 6 months. The question becomes, is it still ideal for call sellers?...

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Gap Hunt

Gap Hunt

The “Floor” we briefly enjoyed at the Weekly Pivot (4476) gave way on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq futures down to the Volume Profile Point of Control (VPPOC), at 4409. (It was the thick blue line on yesterday’s chart.) This price level has the largest volume for the entire look-back period (in this case 25 days) and automatically acts as strong support. While a bounce off the VPPOC  is expected, perhaps to 4450, the proximity of an unfilled gap at 4350-4363 suggests that the market is on...

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Double Top Forming in the ES

Double Top Forming in the ES

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ES) had the kind of day on Thursday that makes long-term investors start trying to figure out if this time it really is the top. The June contract (ESM5) opened down, went down all day (breaking below 2090-2088, last year's high and a significant support area) and breaking the short-term momentum lines, the 20/40-day moving averages, and closing below them. Only a massive effort by the Plunge Protection Team – they tossed a third of the day's volume...

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Running out of Steam?

Running out of Steam?

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve had everyone’s attention with the FOMC announcement. I don’t think there were any surprises as the Fed left interest rates unchanged…for now. Speculation continues about when a rate hike is coming. I think most Fed forecasters would agree that June is off the table, while some are circling the September meeting on their calendars. The Fed has repeatedly told us they will rely on economic data (unemployment, inflation) to make their decision in regards to...

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Oh Well, Maybe Something Fun Tomorrow

Oh Well, Maybe Something Fun Tomorrow

As I am wont to do now and then … well, maybe more now than then, I feel the need to correct the economic picture. Simply, the US economy is in a pattern and Europe is on the mend, really. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended April 25, the lowest reading since April 2000, the Labor Department said. The pattern for the US economy is a bad winter, a good spring, a decent summer, a slight uphill move in the fall, and...

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A Market Without Purpose or Direction

A Market Without Purpose or Direction

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ES) gapped down at the open yesterday (Wednesday) and stayed lower for the close. The first quarter GDP came in at 0.2% growth, well below expectations, in the morning session and even the usual Fed double-talk in the afternoon could not rescue the day. The June contract (ESM5) closed at 2099. This was a hair below to 2100 support, and a loss of 13 points for the day. The ES has now pulled back into the wedge pattern it has been trying to escape and...

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Stocks

Swing and Day Trade Stocks with the Larry Williams Premium Indicators

Swing and Day Trade Stocks with the Larry Williams Premium Indicators

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Futures/Commodities

Identify the Strongest Trends in the Market with the Larry ...

Identify the Strongest Trends in the Market with the Larry ...

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Forex

Identify Day Trading Opportunities in Forex with VantagePoint's ...

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