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Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

I expected a continuation of the correction in Apple (AAPL) on Thursday and at the open it dropped quickly toward $126, taking the Nasdaq Futures (NQ) down to 4431. However, before reaching its gap, AAPL stabilized and reversed without doing much damage. The head fake lower sets up an immediate rally in the NQ to 4525-4530. The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 Futures over the last 120 days. The High Volume Node at 4443 is now support for that move. The...

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The Fed Calls a Fair Game

The Fed Calls a Fair Game

This has been an interesting week with Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying in front of a joint committee of Congress about monetary policy.  This is a bi-annual meeting where lawmakers ask the Chair about policies, concerns, fiscal ideas, and other areas helpful to lawmakers.  This week’s “meeting of the minds” had everyone’s eyes/ears glued to Yellen – would she give a hint about rate hikes?  Last week’s January Fed meeting minutes were completely dissected, but nothing was abundantly...

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ESH5: More Of The Same, With A Slightly Different Result

ESH5: More Of The Same, With A Slightly Different Result

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ESH5) made a new high again yesterday (Wednesday Feb. 25) the 11th time since the beginning of February that the market has made a new record. This time it couldn't hold the gain. The futures reached 2117.75 at one point, a price that has never been seen in the ES before, but closed at 2110.25, 3.50 points below the previous close. It was another very narrow range day (10.50 points total). The volume was slightly higher than yesterday, but still well...

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Market Review and Forecast: AAPL – Watch Out Below!

Market Review and Forecast: AAPL – Watch Out Below!

Volume Profile is most useful in determining support and resistance during pullbacks. Now that Apple (AAPL) is correcting, let’s take a closer look at its key support levels. AAPL has strong support at the High Volume Node (HVN) at $128.63, and the stock closed just above that level on Wednesday. But High Volume Nodes are like double edged swords; they cut both ways. As long as price is above the Node, it acts as strong support, but sentiment can turn on a dime, if price spends too much...

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Fund Rebalancing in Soybeans

Fund Rebalancing in Soybeans

Last week saw the grain market start the week higher, off of the threat of subzero temperatures entering the western wheat states, then finding profit taking the next few sessions as the market prepared for the results of the USDA Outlook Forum Conference.  The Commitment of Traders Report showed trend following funds enter last week short 77,000 bean contracts up 20,000 from the week prior and near a record 86,000 seen last fall.   The fear was that the bean acreage numbers at the forum...

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Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another. Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it. But in 2014, President...

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Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals.  Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event.  The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart.  Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating. The erratic behavior in...

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A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term. The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe...

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How Hidden Flaws in Your Decision-Making Affect Your Trading

How Hidden Flaws in Your Decision-Making Affect Your Trading

Too many traders, trading psychology means dealing with negative emotions like fear and greed.  We all know that negative emotions can cause trading difficulties.  However, many of us don’t know that the way we think can cause big problems, too.  We can be blind-sided by our thinking and decision making—especially when we use our normal, everyday problem-solving approaches in trading.  These are traders’ mental blind spots, and they crop up in every trader’s trading.  The irony is we...

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The Life-Cycles of Stocks Part 1: Tesla Motors

The Life-Cycles of Stocks Part 1: Tesla Motors

In many ways, stocks are like people. They each have their own “life-cycle” of birth, growth, maturity, and eventually death.” What sets stocks apart from humans, however, is that some of the best companies are able to have several life-cycles, as they continually re-invent themselves by developing new, innovative products that in turn drive a new sales cycle and, hence, a new price cycle in the shares of their respective stocks. There are certain common characteristics of “sentiment” that...

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Long-Term Breakout In Heron Therapeutics

Long-Term Breakout In Heron Therapeutics

Two large and unusual trades hit the tape on the ARCA exchange in Heron Therapeutics on February 24th and 25th. The Apr $12.50/$17.50 bull call spread was put on a 7,000 times for a $1.28-$1.50 debit. The breakeven point on these massive trades is between $13.78 and $14.00. Call to put ratio was 10:1 and call activity was 75 times the daily volume on February 25th. There was also a seller of 1,000 Mar $10 puts for $0.60 on the same day (another bullish trade). Focusing on the April trades,...

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ESH5: The Usual Pattern, Conducted By The Usual Suspects

ESH5: The Usual Pattern, Conducted By The Usual Suspects

Yesterday The S&P500 mini-futures (ESH5) managed to scrape up the energy to make a new all-time high yesterday and close at an all-time high. But it was a pitiful performance nonetheless. The futures closed at 2113.75, a little less than seven points above the previous close, and a little below the record high at 2115.75. The volume was abysmal, less than half the normal level. The Volatility Index (VIX) settled at 13.69, the lowest point since December 5th. The intra-day pattern was...

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