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ESM5: A Noisy, Manipulated Market, Still Going Nowhere

ESM5: A Noisy, Manipulated Market, Still Going Nowhere

Yesterday Last Friday (Apr. 17) the US market sold off – big time. Yesterday (Monday) it bounced back sharply. Both moves – up and down – were attributed to the same event, financial news from China. Nothing much changed from Friday to Monday. No sudden wars, no big economic news, no new Fedspeak. It is just machines pushing the prices around for fun and profit. The ES remains inside a broad range. So does the SPX. As long as this range contains the price, anything else is just noise....

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A Bull Stampede

A Bull Stampede

In yesterday’s market review, I forecast a rally into the 4370-4384 resistance zone.  That level was attained within the first 15 minutes of the day session on Monday. The next 5-minute bar, however, exploded 17 points to the High Volume Node at 4407 (the gold line on the chart).  The key lesson from Monday’s action is to recognize there’s nothing more bullish than a failed bearish pattern. Once the resistance zone was taken out, the bulls enjoyed a stampede though the mini Speed Zone...

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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles. This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters. Using the wrong instrument...

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Bean-Meal Bulls Gaining Control

Bean-Meal Bulls Gaining Control

July soybean meal fell through major support last week near $315 per ton. There are two points to be made on the market’s action at these levels. Although it may be a bit of a, “chicken and the egg” situation regarding what happened last week, we feel its outcome provides a major clue towards forward direction. Finally, since we only trade forward direction, we’ll focus on the predictive nature of the events surrounding last week’s action in the soybean-meal futures market. We’ll focus on...

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SPX: Waiting For Something To Happen

SPX: Waiting For Something To Happen

Last Week Weekly Outlook - SP&P 500 Cash Index (SPX) The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 2081.18 last Friday, down 20.88 points for net weekly loss of 1%. It was a strange week: a sell-off on Monday and Tuesday, a strong overnight rally going into Wednesday, and a 40-point dump on Friday (Apr. 17). “Unsettled” doesn't do it justice. The sell-off might be seen as the result of depressing debt news from Greece and changes in market shorting rules from China. But in our view, it...

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A Fly Broke The Bottle

A Fly Broke The Bottle

As noted last week, the Nasdaq has been in a choppy and volatile consolidation for the last 6 weeks. These fast moves create SpeedZones that present little support or resistance to retracements. Bulls and bears get punished equally.     The lower support level at 4370 was taken out on Friday, sending the market all the way down to the Low Volume Node at 4337. Remember, areas of low volume often serve as support in a downtrend. I’m expecting a rally on Monday up to the resistance zone at...

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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading. It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp: When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader. If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely,...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy (GDDY), a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public. Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy (ETSY), is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range. The IPO features prominent...

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Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

W. D. Gann – a trader active during the first half of the 20th Century and a developer of unique analytical methods, such as the Square of 9 and Gann Angles – was reputed to be able to predict within a few ticks the top and bottom of a stock’s range within a specified period of time.  Richard Wyckoff claimed that Gann’s trading ability was so good that it was “… probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.” Picking Tops and Bottoms Wouldn’t it be wonderful to be able to pick the top...

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Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

When most people hear about day trading without charts, it conjures up images of other feats of derring-do –boxing with one arm tied behind your back, tightrope walking blindfolded, and bringing a knife to a gunfight all come to mind. Are we discussing a feat possible only by the fearless few, or is it possible that Day Trading Without Charts is something that is quite straightforward? The fact is we are conditioned to use charts because every trading book, course, and educational forum is...

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April Low in Equities

April Low in Equities

Although my Hybrid Lindsay forecasts always assume a small time window surrounds any single-date point forecast, the forecast for a high on April 15 (see last week’s commentary) was spot-on. The work of George Lindsay deals with time (not price) and tells us that the pullback following last week’s high should be over quickly. There exists a forecast from the basic cycle (5/2/11) for a low near April 24. Unfortunately, there appears to be no confirming forecast from the multiple cycle...

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The Market Running Away From What?

The Market Running Away From What?

What Is the Market Afraid Of? Last Wednesday, I mentioned Dr. Gary Dayton’s article on the “experts” who predict market movement (Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?), and then on Thursday, I wrote … It appears we are back to the days of the market wanting to go up, struggling with the latest news, but no longer running away. True, nothing is certain in life, save death and taxes … Well, it is true, nothing is certain, as today the market is running away from the news,...

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Forex

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Identify the Best Trading Opportunities in the Forex Market with ...

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Futures/Commodities

An Alternative Look at the Trading Game Plan

An Alternative Look at the Trading Game Plan

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Futures/Commodities

Swing Trade Commodity Futures with VantagePoint's Premium Indicators

Swing Trade Commodity Futures with VantagePoint's Premium Indicators

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Stocks

Identify Conditions for Day and Swing Trading with VantagePoint ...

Identify Conditions for Day and Swing Trading with VantagePoint ...

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