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No Surprises From Yellen, But E-Mini S&P 500 Still Vulnerable

No Surprises From Yellen, But E-Mini S&P 500 Still Vulnerable

There weren’t any surprises in Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, but it did leave us a little room for debate. Policy rates remained the same (.25%), and the taper will continue, reducing asset purchases by $10 billion to $15 billion per month. The Fed expects to end the bond purchase program next month, which would appear to be step one towards a change in interest rates. As it has been with many of the Fed’s announcements, market observers were paying closer attention to the “language” of...

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Apple: Trade With The Trend, Still Bullish

Apple: Trade With The Trend, Still Bullish

Hi, world! I hope this message finds you well! I am super excited about this upcoming weekend. It’s one of my best friend’s birthday and we are celebrating via a pedal tavern. It’s like a bar on wheels! Really awesome, actually. Then, a student of mine is coming to Nashville, TN and we will paint the town red. He is actually in this trade with me, which is what got me thinking about it. Here is my 2 cents on Apple Inc. (AAPL). When looking at the chart ask ‘yourself’: “Am I trying to pick...

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Metlife Shares Have 10% Upside Potential Into Year End

Metlife Shares Have 10% Upside Potential Into Year End

Metlife (MET), a $62 billion insurer and annuity provider, had a volatile start to the year, but is currently up 4.56% year to date. Following an impressive 67.47% rise in the 2013, shares of Metlife still only trade at a P/E ratio of 9.05x (2015 estimates) with 9.1% EPS growth (-0.5% this year), price to sales ratio of 0.88x, and a price to book ratio of 0.89x. Revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% from 2.3%. Derivative performance was a big turnaround in the second quarter,...

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A Guide To Alibaba’s (BABA) Record-Setting IPO

A Guide To Alibaba’s (BABA) Record-Setting IPO

Over the past month, the IPO market hasn’t provided traders and investors with many compelling opportunities as activity has dried up. With Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) lined up to go public on September 19, the IPO market will soon come to life in dramatic fashion. Demand has been so strong that its expected price range has been bumped higher to $66-$68 from the original expectation of $60-$66.  With BABA offering 320.1 million ADS, its projected proceeds of over $24.6 billion...

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Strangle Gold Into The Fed Announcement

Strangle Gold Into The Fed Announcement

Gold may drop to $1,200 an ounce, possibly breaching that level to test last December’s low at the 1183 area, thanks to a resurgent U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could signal tighter policy this week. Big Picture Spot gold staged a modest comeback in Asia on Tuesday Sept 16, rising back above $1,236 after hitting an eight-month low of $1,225.30 earlier this week. The precious metal has suffered as the dollar has climbed, geopolitical...

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Lululemon Earnings Gap Creates Trade Spot

Lululemon Earnings Gap Creates Trade Spot

Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) just recently gapped up on earnings breaking through a daily downtrend line and challenging its previous downtrend.  Gap Review On September 11, 2014, LULU gapped up taking out the $43.70 pivot high of supply.  The $43.70 has become a new demand potentially establishing a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend.  On the gap day LULU traded over 28 million shares versus a daily average of 1.6 million showing us that institutions were in play on this stock...

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Trading: Timing Is Everything

Trading: Timing Is Everything

Many traders have the experience of being right about a trade, but get shaken out or stopped out well before that trade reaches its expected target. How frustrating is that?This usually results from several common emotionally-driven timing issues: 1)    Getting in too early due to fear of missing out.2)    Getting out too early due to fear of giving back gains.3)    Placing an initial stop that is too tight (fear of loss).4)    Moving stops in too soon (trading not to lose). 5)  ...

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5 Common Misconceptions About Market Profile®

5 Common Misconceptions About Market Profile®

I was in junior high school the first time I was introduced to Market Profile. My Dad was a grain trader and the hedge manager for Ralston Purina, a huge manufacturer of animal feeds, not to mention the creators of Chex cereals and Rye Crisp crackers. He spoke of a friend, Peter Steidlmayer, who was devising a different way to look at markets. “Any interest in this, son?” Off I went on my skateboard as trading was not on my list of priorities, yet.Years later, struggling to learn to trade,...

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Spotting Unusual Options Activity In Avanir

Spotting Unusual Options Activity In Avanir

Monday saw shares of Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR) soar on positives news from a mid-stage study on the company’s new Alzheimer’s drug AVP-923.  Shares climbed $5.24 (nearly 80%) on the news. Unusual Options Activity At least one trader anticipated positive news from the study.  Monday morning at between 9:38 and 9:39 am EST saw a trader come in buy 650 AVNR Sep 10 Calls for $0.39.  Less than 10 seconds later, another 1,245 contracts in the same line were purchased.  What Does This Mean?...

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Stocks: Use Sentiment To Predict Future Trend Reversals

Stocks: Use Sentiment To Predict Future Trend Reversals

Measuring investor sentiment has always played a big part in my trading. All trend reversals will almost always take place at sentiment extremes. It is just the way the markets work, when too many are bullish or bearish on the stocks, they will have high odds of reversing the trend shortly after. I developed a few short term sentiment models that measure how traders are positioning their portfolios with bonds to stocks. When it showed traders were flocking to bonds, it meant fear was in...

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Gold Update: Downtrend Still Looks Good

Gold Update: Downtrend Still Looks Good

On September 2 I wrote about an attractive short scenario in gold associated with a breakdown from a large symmetrical triangle formation. That breakdown ended up being pretty decisive. The evidence favors further downside ahead. Technical Outlook Specifically, in addition to the poor price structure, I'm looking at weekly momentum. Take a look at RSI averages at the bottom of the accompanying chart. The slow average (orange) stalled around the 50 midline in April. In the past two weeks,...

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Sixth Anniversary Of Lehman Collapse: Time To Watch Financials

Sixth Anniversary Of Lehman Collapse: Time To Watch Financials

This month marks the sixth year after Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11, an act that served as a precursor to market meltdown of October 2008.   Six years later, and despite the amazing recovery for the general market since the market bottomed in 2009, the financials as a sector continues to lag.  Figure 1, the 10-year PerfChart for the S&P Sector ETFs, depicts the Financials (brown) relative weakness during a decade plagued by low interest rates that created an environment for risk...

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Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Premium ...

Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Premium ...

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Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Larry ...

Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Larry ...

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How to Break the Habit of Erratic Trading Performance

How to Break the Habit of Erratic Trading Performance

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Finding the Big Moves in Forex with VantagePoint and ...

Finding the Big Moves in Forex with VantagePoint and ...

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