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Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

“Trade what you see, not what you feel.” This axiom of trading seems so right, it is undeniable that all traders need to strive to achieve it.  The only problem with this oft quoted remark is what you see is influenced by what you are feeling – no exceptions.  If only traders could see the facts clearly without feeling, then they would be freed from the tyranny of emotional reasoning.  Then trading would be easy.  But nothing could be further from the truth. The truth is all thinking (all...

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Resistance Becomes Support

Resistance Becomes Support

Volume Profile gives us information on key levels of support and resistance (S/R). Although the High Volume Nodes and Low Volume Nodes often produce very precise reversals, S/R is best conceptualized as a zone. For the last few days, the key zone in the NQ has been centered around 4442. On Wednesday, a “scouting party” briefly probed above it, but a 40-point rejection reaction ensued. This apparent failure can get traders bearish, but as noted yesterday, the “failure” can set up a better...

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Sell in May And Go Away -- Not So Fast

Sell in May And Go Away -- Not So Fast

Anecdotes are great fun for the media and sometimes they do come true, but are they something we should follow closely?  The calendar is full of them, such as the January effect,  the Summer Rally, “Bears have Thanksgiving, Bulls have Christmas”, the Santa Claus Rally, and the one coming up next week, telling us to get out for the summer, Many of these did the opposite of what they were supposed to do in 2014 – who do we blame for a failure of the Santa Claus Rally?  Santa Claus? (if you...

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Crude, Headed Back To $50?

Crude, Headed Back To $50?

A lot of people follow the commodity markets. Most have a favorite contract that they trade or chart. Some will follow a particular sector like grains, currencies or interest rate futures.  As active as some people’s interest is in commodity markets, they may only have a tunnel vision for one particular contract. It seems like no matter what contract people focus on, they always know the price of crude oil. After seeing crude oil trend lower since November, the market is now trading higher...

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NQ Poised for a Breakout?

NQ Poised for a Breakout?

Volume Profile gives key levels of support and resistance. These levels are sometimes “lines in the sand,” and at other times they are made of rubber. On Wednesday, the 4442 level was temporarily broken by a “scouting party” rally taking price up to 4459. Price then retraced down to that level and finally closed just above it at 4446. Scouting parties are tentative forays beyond obvious resistance levels in the futures markets. Their apparent “failure” can get people bearish, which sets up...

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ESM5: Busy Going Nowhere

ESM5: Busy Going Nowhere

Yesterday In what has started to become a familiar pattern, the real movement in the S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) is taking place outside the regular trading hours, and it is being corrected once the terminals start up and the regular-session traders hit their desks. Yesterday (Wednesday), the minis dumped 18 points overnight, clawed most of it back before the open, dumped a second time in the first couple of hours, but scrambled back a second time. It closed up 9 points from the...

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Worry No Worry – Earnings Growth Will Prevail

Worry No Worry – Earnings Growth Will Prevail

The market is, admittedly, on shaky footing right now. Economic data is not quite as strong as we would like to see, the FOMC and their rate hike is just around the corner, and 1st quarter earnings growth is not expected to be good. I could go on and on about how the economic trends are still pointing to growth, or about how the FOMC rate hike has been expected for so long it has no choice but to be factored into current market values, but I won't. When you boil away all the day-to-day...

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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles. This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters. Using the wrong instrument...

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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading. It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp: When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader. If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely,...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy (GDDY), a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public. Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy (ETSY), is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range. The IPO features prominent...

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Fib Projection Reached- Super Bullish

Fib Projection Reached- Super Bullish

Volume Profile is most useful during pullbacks, not when markets are making forays into uncharted territory. For that super bullish phase, I use Fibonacci extensions and weekly pivots. One of the best ways to use Fib projections is to look for a confluence from two different ranges. We have a Fib confluence (127% and 162%) around the 4532 area, which happens to be where the futures are trading on Sunday evening as I write this. There is also a weekly half pivot here, so a pullback to close...

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SPX: Choppy Week Ahead

SPX: Choppy Week Ahead

Last week Last week the S&P 500, the large-cap equities index, rose 1.75%, a decent rally for the week, and made a new all-time high for the close. It ended the week at 2117.69, just a few pennies above the high close set on March 2. The gain for the week was about 36 points. It is encouraging to see a new high – the SPX also made an new intraday high at 2120.92 on Friday – and the Bulls will feast on the idea that the market closed near the high for the week and above the high of the...

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Forex

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Options

How to Spot Accelerations in Stocks and Options

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Automate Your Strategies for Emotionless Trading

Automate Your Strategies for Emotionless Trading

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