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A Fly in the Bottle

A Fly in the Bottle

This is a chart of the Nasdaq futures over the last two months. While the index has presented tradable moves in both directions, the overall picture is one of a choppy and volatile consolidation. As noted yesterday, the fast moves create Speed Zones that eventually beget sudden reversals, trapping bulls and bears alike.  The shaded blue area marks the current active consolidation range. Think of it as a bottle with a fly buzzing around inside trying to get out. The NQ closed on Thursday at...

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Is Crude Really Making A Comeback?

Is Crude Really Making A Comeback?

Over the past few weeks, we have seen crude oil rise sharply and, just Wednesday, it reached levels not seen in months. The commodity is up sharply, having rallied more than 10% in a week.  Of course, we’ve seen short-lived rallies before, so is this just another one that will fade or is this going to stick?  That’s a great question and clearly will tell us the chances of making profitable trades.  We should note crude futures have jumped higher, so that would certainly give substance to a...

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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading. It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp: When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader. If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely,...

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Sell The May E-mini S&P 500 2110-2130 Call Spread

Sell The May E-mini S&P 500 2110-2130 Call Spread

The S&P 500 has seen quite a few ups and downs since trading at 2175 at the end of February. The market traded all the way down to 2030 by mid-March. By the end of the month, the index had traded above 2100 again in two separate sessions, only to follow up with another visit to the 2030 area. Volatility anyone? The Federal Reserve still casts a large shadow (or cloud depending on your point of view), over the equity markets. Investors and traders alike are still reading every bit of...

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Half Way There

Half Way There

It wasn’t difficult for the bulls to make headway on Wednesday due to the Speed Zone between 4412 and 4438. Speed Zones are ranges where price moved very quickly in one direction. This creates a zone where there’s very little resistance to price bouncing back the other way. In this case, the Speed Zone was created on 4/3 and Wednesday’s price action retraced about 2/3 of that zone. The blue arrow on the chart shows the Speed Zone boundaries.   The target zone, indicated on the chart, is...

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Positive Signs Coming From The Gold Miners

Positive Signs Coming From The Gold Miners

It is no surprise to anyone following the financial markets in the past few years that the gold miners have been one of the worst places to invest (aside from coal companies). The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF has fallen 69% from the September 2011 highs above $65 and 28% from the 2014 highs. A stronger U.S. dollar and an end to quantitative easing have put downward pressure on commodities like gold. However, less than stellar economic data recently has pushed back the likelihood of the...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy (GDDY), a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public. Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy (ETSY), is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range. The IPO features prominent...

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Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

W. D. Gann – a trader active during the first half of the 20th Century and a developer of unique analytical methods, such as the Square of 9 and Gann Angles – was reputed to be able to predict within a few ticks the top and bottom of a stock’s range within a specified period of time.  Richard Wyckoff claimed that Gann’s trading ability was so good that it was “… probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.” Picking Tops and Bottoms Wouldn’t it be wonderful to be able to pick the top...

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Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

When most people hear about day trading without charts, it conjures up images of other feats of derring-do –boxing with one arm tied behind your back, tightrope walking blindfolded, and bringing a knife to a gunfight all come to mind. Are we discussing a feat possible only by the fearless few, or is it possible that Day Trading Without Charts is something that is quite straightforward? The fact is we are conditioned to use charts because every trading book, course, and educational forum is...

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Using Weekly Options To Your Advantage

Using Weekly Options To Your Advantage

The CME Group has spent the last few years adding weekly options to their product arsenal.  Their goal has been to provide speculators with more “options”, but they’ve also succeeded in finding a way to increase trading volume and, thus, their bottom line.  In other words, weekly options have been a success on all fronts. According to the U.S. futures exchange giant, weekly options provide users with increased flexibility in managing existing option positions, and new opportunities to...

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Look for Bounce in Beans Into Planting and Growing Season

Look for Bounce in Beans Into Planting and Growing Season

The weekly export-sales report showed beans sold last week for future shipment at a negative 176-thousand metric tons. Note the negative.  This means once we added up all of the new sales and subtracted cancelations, we had more cancelations than new business.  As well, note export sales are at 99% of the USDA projected exports for the new marketing year ending September 1st.  This means that the USDA would have to either increase its export projections or beans have to stop selling.  It...

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The US Treasury Market Is In Missouri – Please Show Me

The US Treasury Market Is In Missouri – Please Show Me

Having gotten through the first quarter of the year, let's just take a quick look at where we stand with interest rates.  The lows in yields were made in late January, 1.16 for the Five-year Treasury bond, 1.64 for the Ten-year bond, and 2.22 for the Thirty-year bond.  Then the employment release in February sent yields on an upward trajectory, and the March jobs data marked the high yields for the year so far – 1.70 for the Five-, 2.24 for the Ten- and 2.84 for the Thirty-year bond.  So...

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Futures/Commodities

An Alternative Look at the Trading Game Plan

An Alternative Look at the Trading Game Plan

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Futures/Commodities

Swing Trade Commodity Futures with VantagePoint's Premium Indicators

Swing Trade Commodity Futures with VantagePoint's Premium Indicators

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Stocks

Identify Conditions for Day and Swing Trading with VantagePoint ...

Identify Conditions for Day and Swing Trading with VantagePoint ...

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Market

How To Trade Forex Using The Ichimoku Cloud

How To Trade Forex Using The Ichimoku Cloud

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