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America's Role In the Middle East: Friends and Foes

America's Role In the Middle East: Friends and Foes

The Professional Traders OpinionWho’s on First? (Abbot & Costello, circa 1952)Oddly enough, an ascribed Arabic proverb, dating to the 4th century BC, suggests “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”   There is now a 21st century edited version of that proverb; once again emanating from the land of Arabia but this time will need Aristotle to discern the logic; it goes something like this: “the enemy of my enemy is only my friend until my enemy is overthrown by America, a new government is...

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Dr. Pepper Snapple Group: Unusual Options Activity Shows Big Buyer

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group: Unusual Options Activity Shows Big Buyer

Shares of Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS), the Plano, Texas-based soft drink company, has steadily carved out new all highs in 2014.  Shares are already up over 37% in 2014, having traded in a 52-week range of $43.18-$65.43.  At least one institution seems to think the original “King of Beverages” is headed higher.  Last Friday at 2:05 pm EST, a trader came in to buy 5,755 DPS Nov 70 Calls for $0.65 in what was labeled an opening position.  In terms of total risk premium, this trade isn’t...

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Time To Cover Short Euro Position

Time To Cover Short Euro Position

I've been bearish on the euro (versus the dollar) since late July. [Editor's note: see Burba's previous TraderPlanet stories on the euro July 29th and August 19th). Key Points Although there could be some more downside before the downtrend in this market ends, I feel less comfortable advising anyone to be short here. I base my stance on two points. The first is the proximity to a substantial floor at 1.275, based on the lows in 2013. Granted, there's a little way down to go from the...

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Lindsay Analysis: What's Next For The Dow?

Lindsay Analysis: What's Next For The Dow?

Last week’s commentary, Beyond all Doubt, quickly turned to ‘beyond belief’ as the Dow exceeded its July 16 closing high. The market timing models of George Lindsay don’t use the terms bull and bear market and I shouldn’t have either. Lindsay Analysis Rather his work speaks in terms of basic advances, basic declines, and basic cycles. Understanding the difference between these concepts was how he was able to make such incredible market calls during his career. Recent Market Action By...

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Is Gold Going Up Or Down?

Is Gold Going Up Or Down?

Since the summer of 2013, gold has been tracing out a large consolidation pattern, registering lows at and above 1179 and highs at and below 1434.  A break from this consolidation pattern is likely to carry prices to one of the next zones of large degree support or resistance, depending on the direction of the break.If price continues to move lower, as is the near-term direction, the next lower zone of support is 1090 - 1140.  There is additionally a larger zone of support established at...

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S&P 500 Leads Up: But Who Will Follow?

S&P 500 Leads Up: But Who Will Follow?

A week ago we promised you a rambunctious week in the S&P 500 (SPX) and we got it: The Dow made new highs on four days in a row, and the S&P 500 cash index (SPX), after bumping around the old high most of the week, broke out to a new high Friday morning. This was pretty typical of triple witching week, when options on futures, stocks and the futures contracts expire simultaneously. Triple witching week has ended positive 15 of the last 19 times. But now all the special events that...

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Time To Buy 10-Year Notes: Here's Why

Time To Buy 10-Year Notes: Here's Why

The interest rate sector has been tug of war between geopolitical fears and a weak European economy supporting lower yields versus the Federal Reserve Board’s tapering of its purchases and a progressively improving U.S. economy suggesting rates could be higher. Due to the number variables and the fluid situation that best describes Middle Eastern and Russian politics its best to analyze the market through price and behavior patterns. That being said, our first screen is always a look at...

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What Does Fed Action Mean For Long-Term Rates?

What Does Fed Action Mean For Long-Term Rates?

Here we go again.  Hand-wringing over the Fed’s tightening schedule has caused a sell-off in bonds and all things income related.  After falling for most of July and August, the 10-year Treasury yield has jumped to over 2.6% on speculation that the Fed may start tightening monetary policy sooner than previously thought. We’ll see. The Fed may indeed start to raise short-term rates as soon as the first quarter of next year.  But that by now means guarantees that longer-term rates will...

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Fear Is Not Rational: The Limitations Of The VIX

Fear Is Not Rational: The Limitations Of The VIX

Most of us as traders and simply as human beings seek clarity.  We innately feel the need to make sense out of chaos.  We want answers.  We want black or white.  Gray makes many of us uneasy.  So, there are often times when faced with the complex world that is trading, we want to boil things down into one universal truth, a methodology that we can apply wherever we go. Problem is we often find ourselves trying to put a round peg in a square hole.  Let’s take a look at VIX.  In general,...

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Alibaba? Nah, I'll Just Pass On This One

Alibaba? Nah, I'll Just Pass On This One

As we are about to embark upon one of the biggest IPO's in history I thought it would be a good time to step back and see what this is all about and how you can shield yourself from a potentially dangerous situation. As we know, Alibaba (BABA) will come public this week.  The company is a juggernaut in Asia, selling everything online to anyone much in the way Amazon does here in the States.   But there is tremendous hype covering this release of China's big online retailer.  It has become...

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No Surprises From Yellen, But E-Mini S&P 500 Still Vulnerable

No Surprises From Yellen, But E-Mini S&P 500 Still Vulnerable

There weren’t any surprises in Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, but it did leave us a little room for debate. Policy rates remained the same (.25%), and the taper will continue, reducing asset purchases by $10 billion to $15 billion per month. The Fed expects to end the bond purchase program next month, which would appear to be step one towards a change in interest rates. As it has been with many of the Fed’s announcements, market observers were paying closer attention to the “language” of...

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Institutional Traders Use Pivot Points: Here's Why

Institutional Traders Use Pivot Points: Here's Why

Back in mid July I wrote that the S&P 500 (SPX) was close to major resistance at the Yearly R1 pivot point at 1990. On July 24 the S&P (SPX) tested 1990 and two weeks later had fallen 90 points (5%) to 1900. How did I know that 1990 would be strong resistance? I knew that the big banks, market makers and Algos all use pivot points. Most professional traders use daily and weekly pivots for short term trades. I have found the yearly pivot points (based on a calendar year) are where...

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Swing Trade Stocks with VantagePoint and the Larry ...

Swing Trade Stocks with VantagePoint and the Larry ...

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Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Premium Indicators

Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Premium Indicators

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Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Larry ...

Trading Commodities with VantagePoint and Larry ...

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