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MCD Call Spread Sale- Downside Play for Chinese Exposure and Technical Resistance

MCD Call Spread Sale- Downside Play for Chinese Exposure and Technical Resistance

Believe it or not, successful traders do not have a crystal ball.  All that he or she does successfully is find a potentially favorable set up and then put the odds in such a way where the reward makes sense to the risk.  Repeat this process many, many times and you have a system that works out in the long run.  I cannot tell which trade signals are the “good” ones.  I just have to let the numbers pan out.  So, let’s take a look at our play in McDonald’s (MCD).  I note two main things: MCD...

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SPX -What Monday's Drop Tells US

SPX -What Monday's Drop Tells US

In the 07/20/15 Trader Planet article, I mentioned that we had some bullish sentiment extremes and to expect lower. The SPX proceeded to drop 70 points in 7 days and made a low with some bearish sentiment extremes and now remains in a neutral trading environment when looking through an investor sentiment window. The SPX has been trading within the 2040-2134 range for the last 3 months and each big move in either direction has that side of the trade thinking “this time is different” and...

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US Stocks: Fear Index Is At Record Lows

US Stocks: Fear Index Is At Record Lows

There goes July. Did anybody notice? June started high and ended low. July started low and ended high. Except for the color of the candles on the chart, there wasn’t much to chose between them ... and not much to remember them by. The US equity market, at least as represented by the Standard and Poor 500  (SPX), has now spent the first seven months of the year drifting along near the top of a long bull market, unable to go up and unwilling (or not permitted) to go down. July was absolutely...

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The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

This week’s commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index. The July 27 commentary (US Stocks Are Near A Low: Here's Why) mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why “a tradable low is very close”. Indeed, last week’s low was seen that day.  The next forecast-high generated by the Hybrid Lindsay model is expected late in the week of August 10 or early...

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10-Year Treasury Note Faces Stiff Resistance

10-Year Treasury Note Faces Stiff Resistance

We’ve begun to notice an anomaly within the interest rate futures where the volatility of the 10-Year Treasury Note is significantly higher than both shorter and longer dated maturities. Rather than attempting to answer why this may be, we’d rather focus on the trading opportunity it presents both within the interest rate sector and as an outright speculative trade. First, let’s look at some data. The current trade setup involves the pricing distortion between the 10-year Treasury Note and...

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Central Bankers Recreating Reality

Central Bankers Recreating Reality

A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgment based upon it. Bertrand Russell We will at some point in time publish a full in depth article in terms of how Central bankers have been actively employing psychological strategies to deceive the masses for generations. In essence, central bankers have been recreating reality, and the sad part is that the masses now assume that this altered reality is the new norm.  We are going to illustrate this by highlighting...

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Profit From “Hidden” Fundamentals Of Crude Oil

Profit From “Hidden” Fundamentals Of Crude Oil

  By: James Cordier, Michael Gross   An outsider watching the prices of crude oil shift up or down may think this is some sort of random event. “Who is causing this?” gas buyers and clueless politicians often demand, as though an evil oil company executive is sitting in a room throwing a lever to turn the supply on or off. As an investor willing to do a little homework, however, you’ll find projecting price ranges for oil is a little less populist rhetoric and little more science and...

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How To Develop True Trading Confidence

How To Develop True Trading Confidence

Brett found trading confidence elusive.  "If only I was more confident, I'd be a better trader," Brett explained.  What might cultivate more confidence?  "Making more winning trades, of course."  Sorry, that’s the wrong answer. The Source of True Trading Confidence Trading confidence doesn’t come from the number of winning trades, how much money was won, or other ‘statistical’ measures.  True trading confidence comes from mastering the various skills needed to read the market and execute...

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IPOs: Watch This Healthy Pet Food Maker

IPOs: Watch This Healthy Pet Food Maker

Before the market opens on Wednesday, July 22, healthy pet product maker Blue Buffalo Pet Products’ (BUFF) 29.5 million share IPO is expected to price within a range of $16-$18. The lead underwriters on the deal are JP Morgan and Citigroup. BUFF’s IPO comes on the heels of another healthy pet food IPO, Freshpet (FRPT), which went public on November 7, 2014. Taking a look back on how that IPO fared, its’ 10.4 million share IPO priced at $15, above the $12-$14 range, but then slid lower over...

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Tanger (SKT): A Bargain For Income Investors

Tanger (SKT): A Bargain For Income Investors

  Why Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) Is a Bargain for Income Investors With global interest rates still near record lows (the German ten-year yield is at 0.8%, while the U.S. ten year yield is at 2.3%, income investors face a difficult time finding meaningful yields in bond products or high-dividend stocks without taking substantial risks.  Should inflation unexpectedly rise later this year, bond prices would also underperform. Based on my macroeconomic analysis, there remains pockets...

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US Stocks: Trade From The Long Side

US Stocks: Trade From The Long Side

In my last market update (7/20) I characterized the 300+ point rally in the NQ as “unsustainable.” My initial target was 4492 and we hit 4497 on 7/28. This downside forecast was not due to any particular bearishness on my part. By nature, I’m actually more bullish than bearish, and in my own trading I prefer to trade from the long side. Nevertheless, the Volume Profile chart showed very weak volume on those final 100 points. Moreover, a bigger picture megaphone pattern had completed and...

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The Fed: The Mindset For A Downturn

The Fed: The Mindset For A Downturn

I can hear it now from someone reading the title:  'A Ha  this guy is finally bearish after all this time -- I knew he would come around'.  That couldn't be further from the truth, in fact the bearish label is completely inaccurate.  I don't like labels, as when we describe ourselves bullish or bearish that puts us in a specific mindset unable to be flexible.  Hence, when we change our minds and decisions with changing markets our tactics are questioned.  In other words, don't put me in a...

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Stock Strategies - SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQ

Stock Strategies - SPY, DIA, IWM and QQQ

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Anticipating Short Term Market Moves with VantagePoint and ...

Anticipating Short Term Market Moves with VantagePoint and ...

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Stock Strategies -FB, AAPL, GOOG and More

Stock Strategies -FB, AAPL, GOOG and More

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Course 3.4: Using the Predictive Power of Vantage Point to ...

Course 3.4: Using the Predictive Power of Vantage Point to ...

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