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Grain Exports

Grain Exports

Export sales for wheat on the week came in at minus 449 thousand metric tons.  Sales have been bad for months, but this should not be looked at as anything different than the week prior as wheat’s new marketing year begins June 1st.  It is common in the last month of the old marketing year to see cancelations and new shipping dates for new crop delivery.  Export sales for the new marketing year, 2015/16 were 852 thousand metric tons.  This looks like a high number but is common as the new...

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Thoughts on Liquidity

Thoughts on Liquidity

"The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system." --That's the statement the Greenspan Fed used to steady the markets after the 1987 Crash. I personally get turned off when news outlets all jump on the same topic and beat it to death. So, I am NOT going to talk about Bruce Jenner in this post. However, I am going to make a couple of points...

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Gap Hunt Continues

Gap Hunt Continues

The Nasdaq futures ended the day on Monday near the Weekly Pivot (4469), which represents a point of equilibrium. The rejection of higher prices on Monday, however, and the return to ground zero, filling the opening gap, the Nasdaq futures completed a bit of technical housekeeping. The pink areas on the Volume Profile chart show filled gaps. As noted yesterday, for the gap police, we had two remaining fugitives: 4419 and 4349. On Tuesday the gap hunts quickly resumed, closing the 4419 gap...

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Facebook Calendar Spread

Facebook Calendar Spread

As an options trader, all we are trying to do is maximize the reward for the risk we take.  I don’t have a crystal ball.  I do have tools at my disposal in the form of technical and fundamental analysis.  Let’s take a look in Facebook (FB).  Facebook has been a stock that has been hard to buy.  What do I mean by that?  Sure it’s easy to say “I want to buy FB” turn around, hit the green button and get long.  That’s not how to approach things.  You need to find a value point (some may call...

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Clarity, Clarity, Speculation, and Creepy

Clarity, Clarity, Speculation, and Creepy

I have to start the day with taking aim at Reuters News. Now, I get it, they have two different pieces of data here, but at first reading, this fact is hard to tell. The headlines are in bold below and right underneath each is the opening paragraph for each story. U.S. services sector growth cools in April: Markit The pace of expansion in the U.S. services sector eased from a seven-month high in April on a dip in new business growth, but hiring in the sector accelerated to its highest...

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Short this Rally - SPX

Short this Rally - SPX

This market continues to run with an all-in or all-out mentality. We are seeing massive moves both up and down, which in the past, would take a few days to accomplish (point wise) happen in a few hours. The market makers aren’t giving the retail traders any time to think and is putting them on “react mode”. The problem with traders being in a “reaction mode” they make trading decisions based on emotions. Anybody who has been in this business for more than a couple of years knows, any trade...

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More of the Same

More of the Same

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ES) made a continuation move up yesterday (Monday) and rallied back to the familiar resistance level at 2115, before dropping back when the morning momentum died out. It still managed to close at 2109.25, eight points above the previous close, and above the opening gap. Volume was light, but the price action was bullish. Monday's rally takes the minis back to the resistance level that has been forming the top of a rising wedge for many weeks (see...

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Trading 101: Why I Never Buy or Sell That First Big Move

Trading 101: Why I Never Buy or Sell That First Big Move

In the game of trading, there is always a rush to be the first one in or out of a stock’s huge move. It’s great fun and a huge ego boost to be able to “call that shot,” whether it’s a bottom or top. There’s just one problem: These trading decisions are often impulsive and made without much thought. When a stock plunges, it may seem appropriate to stick your hand in and take a slice or big chunk, even if you don’t understand the technical damage that could be taking place. On the flip side,...

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Soft Landing for Icarus

Soft Landing for Icarus

The Nasdaq futures ended last week at the Weekly Pivot (4469). Weekly pivots represent a balance point. Then, we opened with some enthusiasm on Monday, gapping up about 13 points, and proceeded to advance into the Speedzone, as noted yesterday on the Volume Profile chart. This is a price range where we had a previous gap and it makes for fast movement when revisited, since markets have memory. Despite the quick morning rally, the Nasdaq futures fell back to earth and closed more or less at...

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Watch For The Developing Trend

Watch For The Developing Trend

Aside from last week’s up and down joy ride in the market, things seem to be the same generally – the market wants to behave. All the major indices are hanging around their record levels, the VIX is in the up 12 zone, the US dollar has steadied in the mid-90 area, the euro is rising slowly, gold is still flirting with $1200, and oil has stalled in its recent jump up.  All this tells me the market is relaxed and looking for a cue. Yup … It is time for a cup of coffee. Astronauts on the...

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Lindsay Right Shoulders

Lindsay Right Shoulders

Long-time readers will remember Lindsay’s admonition that following extended basic advances (929-968 days) a right shoulder is to be expected. Normally, a right shoulder is a significant high but lower than the high of the bull market. However, Lindsay allowed for the possibility of a right shoulder appearing at a higher level than the high of the basic advance.  This happened in 1966 and 1973, and is occurring again in the current bull market. Like sideways movements, no right shoulder...

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Timing the Dollar Index

Timing the Dollar Index

As a broker, I get calls from clients everyday asking me what I think about this market or that market. Given the generic nature of the question, my first response is almost always, “What’s your timeframe?” It always amazes what a stumbling block this can be. The old saying is, “Plan your trade and trade your plan.” This week, we’ll look briefly at the importance of timeframes in trading the Dollar Index. As we all know, the Dollar has been in major rally mode for almost a year now and is...

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Market

Episode 1: Basics of Wave Principle

Episode 1: Basics of Wave Principle

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Stocks

Swing and Day Trade Stocks with the Larry Williams Premium Indicators

Swing and Day Trade Stocks with the Larry Williams Premium Indicators

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Futures/Commodities

Identify the Strongest Trends in the Market with the Larry ...

Identify the Strongest Trends in the Market with the Larry ...

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