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SPX: Beware the War of 1812

SPX: Beware the War of 1812

The S&P 500 cash index ($SPX) closed at 1880.05 last Friday, down 26.85 points for net weekly loss of 1.40%. Friday was especially brutal, one big red candle than carried the price right back down to the recent support around 1875, extinguishing all the gains made a week earlier, and reminding traders that there is a very big and very empty void below the current price. The number to watch is 1812 – think about the last time the US was invaded by foreign troops – which is approximately...

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The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 is an index comprised of the 100 largest Nasdaq stocks by market cap. This cap-weighted index is a well-watched benchmark because it is the Nasdaq’s version of the S&P 500.  I recently discussed the technical criteria for calling a bear market in the S&P 500, which differs from the Nasdaq 100 due to differences in volatility. If the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below the 13-ema on a monthly chart, with a broken multi-year uptrend line, it suggests the start of a bear...

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Stock Market Distribution Continues

Stock Market Distribution Continues

We started a new month this past week, but it was like Deja Vu all over again.  The Groundhog declared an early spring on Tuesday, a change in weather.  But regarding markets, you could have fooled me.  It was the same action we have seen for weeks on end, and it doesn't seem to be letting up.  The vicious selling last week was magnified on Friday after a jobs report that seemed indicate the Fed may be trapped.  I'm not so sure about that, but the market speaks louder than my opinion. The...

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Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Last week’s forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st (Eighth Year Returns) was a perfect hit.  As of last Friday, equities have fallen 261 points since last Monday’s high. Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart. If 30.00 is broken again, my price forecasting model generates a target of 22.90. However, a break out above the 34-dma would be...

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Traders: Brace Yourself For Sustained Volatility

Traders: Brace Yourself For Sustained Volatility

To what extent will volatility continue in to February? Market participants remain uncertain.  Numerous indicators point to some level of sustained volatility including price fluctuations in oil, US dollar and other major currencies, macro-economic gauges, and the ever present political climate leading up to the presidential election in the US. Traders and active investors have certainly had their share of excitement in the first month of the New Year.  2016 has certainly provided a...

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Will Oil Prices Rise or Fall? | A 27 Year History on the Charts Tells the Story

Will Oil Prices Rise or Fall? | A 27 Year History on the Charts Tells the Story

Bloomberg says oil ($CL_F) will go as low as $10.00 a barrel whereas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens says we could be headed for higher oil prices; no matter how you slice it, both of these sources could be right.   The market is going to do what the market is going to do, but there are solid reasons for oil prices to rise and fall, the past 3 decades has shown us this without a doubt.  There’s been a lot of talk from news sources and in the media that oil may be headed for $10.00 a barrel but...

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Trading Tactics: How to Deal With a Slump

Trading Tactics: How to Deal With a Slump

Self-realization is a good place to start in breaking a trading slump.  I know it seems obvious that when you're in a slump and trading poorly your results and account balance will reflect it.  Streaks work both ways of course, and when we are winning it is just as notable as when we are losing.  Understanding what is happening to you is awareness that may help you change some habits, which may also change your fortunes.  When in a slump I will often take a break from trading, a...

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Stock Market Crash: Is The Dow Headed For A 2008 Repeat?

Stock Market Crash: Is The Dow Headed For A 2008 Repeat?

Do not wait for ideal circumstances nor for the best opportunities; they will never come. Anonymous   We could not help ourselves and put the word stock market crash in the title because every Tom, Dick and Harry is now chanting this tune.  Take a look at some of the recent headlines: Is the stock market headed for a repeat of 2008?, On marketwatch.com A stock-market crash of 50%+ would not be a surprise — or the worst-case scenario on Yahoo Finance Stock Market Crash 2016: This Is The...

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Do You Know When the News is Wrong And Can You Trade It?

Do You Know When the News is Wrong And Can You Trade It?

Do you trade the news?  Some technical traders ignore the news, but understanding when it gets one-sided can offer extraordinary trading, especially for those who know how to read the markets.  A One-Sided Market Early last Wednesday morning, January 20th, news outlets like CNN were talking gloom and doom before the US markets opened.  The European and Asian markets were selling down hard, they said.  The markets were in dire shape.  They even had a name for the coming trading day: “Red...

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Trading Psychology: Of Rabbits And Raiders

Trading Psychology: Of Rabbits And Raiders

I read an interesting article today on the AAII website by Lee Freeman-Shor, a seasoned portfolio manager based in the U.K. who has a keen interest in the psychology of investing. We share a fascination with the ways that trader personality affects bottom-line results. To create a diversified money management approach, he hires up to a dozen managers and has carefully studied their trading behavior. He begins the article by making one salient point: the data show that most of the investing...

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Trading Tactics: Dealing With A Trading Slump Part 2

Trading Tactics: Dealing With A Trading Slump Part 2

If you are actively trading/investing in markets you understand there is a great deal of volatility to contend with.  Certainly the emotions run rampant as we try best to find the right names at the right time for our portfolio.  Sometimes we get lucky and pick up stuff at good prices, but other times we are not so fortunate.  For traders, this can be repetitive, and nothing hurts more than a trading slump.  Our minds are powerful, and can overwhelm us with doubt, guilt and fear.  We can...

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ETF Liquidation Triggers Crude Oil Volatility Spike

ETF Liquidation Triggers Crude Oil Volatility Spike

March Crude Oil traded up to 33.60 on Thursday as the Russian Defense Ministry announced they have evidence the Turkish military is making preparations to invade Syria. The rally stalled however, as reports came in stating Syrian coalition forces have encircled Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. This city is seen as key to restoring President Assad’s control of the country from militants. The coalition has cut off supply lines from Turkey and has strengthened Assad. This could hinder any desire...

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Make 100K A Year Day Trading Gaps With A 70% Win Ratio System

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