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Speed Zone Ahead

Speed Zone Ahead

The precipitous decline in the NQ on Wednesday (3/25) created a speed zone that the market is now entering from below. The principle of the speed zone is simple – a market that falls quickly can rise just as quickly. This is especially true in futures markets where mean reversion is the primary trader orientation.    Because the 4210 area (not shown), which is the Volume Profile Point of Control (VPPOC) for this 120 day profile, also coincides with an unfilled gap in the NQ that’s my...

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The Importance Of Follow Through -- Be Patient

The Importance Of Follow Through -- Be Patient

Many of us are trained to look for tops and bottoms and game the markets accordingly.  For the most part, this is the way our brains work; yet, intuitively speaking, that is just the wrong approach.  Finding tops and bottoms is generally a loser's game, but following through after seeing a top/bottom take place can be the most lucrative profit opportunity.  Our minds think in terms of finding the best value, letting prices fall to levels that we are willing to accept.  Wal-Mart is a great...

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US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

With no break of the 34-dma, and a cycle low due this week, it is beginning to look like the bulk of the expected correction is behind us and DXY will soon begin what is expected to be the last leg of its rally prior to this September. April looks bullish for the dollar with short-term cycles pointing to highs near both Apr. 15 and Apr. 30. The price targetof 102.00 is a minimum target derived from the six-year triangle, but my price-forecasting model generates a target of 103.50.  The...

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Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

Oil prices have been under pressure as the dollar soars. For many, they believe that the strength in the dollar is a major reason why oil will not be able to rally. Yet the truth is that while in recent years, the dollar-oil inverse correlation has been very tight, throughout history that has not always been the case. In fact, in the oil market, as well as other commodities, we may be at the verge of a total breakdown of what has been considered to be an almost dogmatic truth - which is as...

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I Spy: Another Three Day Weekend

I Spy: Another Three Day Weekend

I love selling premium, and in certain market conditions this is one of the best strategies for making money in the stock market. What are we talking about here? It’s all about options, and when we look at trading on the surface, it’s a simple zero sum game – one side wins while the other side loses. Yet, that would be the end game, when options expire at expiration. We can certainly have winners and losers on both sides at any point in time prior to option expiration, and that is often...

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ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

Yesterday The SP500 mini futures (ESM5) sold off sharply in overnight trading before yesterday's open (Mar. 26), but the 135-day moving average line, which has supported the futures for about four months now, held again, and provided a little bounce after the regular session opened. During regular trading hours, the ES made a strong push up and traded in positive territory for a while. But, by the end of the day, it dropped back below the previous close. The futures closed at 2048.50,...

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Date with Destiny

Date with Destiny

A capitulatory opening gap down on Thursday was repaired after our initial 4285 target was attained (see yesterday’s forecast). The “trick” with using Volume Profile effectively is to experiment with look-back periods in order to get a semi-Gaussian distribution. That means a volume distribution with a clear central peak and “shoulders” on either side. The 90-day look back in the NQ does the trick. As mentioned yesterday, the 4210 area, which is the Volume Profile Point of Control (VPPOC)...

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Over the last 12 months, Macau casino gaming stocks are down by an average of 50% as the world’s largest casino-gaming market experienced an unprecedented decline in gross gaming revenues (GGR). GGR in Macau experienced its first yearly decline since data became publicly available in 2002, falling by 2.6% last year to $44 billion as a result of the Chinese government’s anti-graft movement, Macau’s hotel room constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy. The first two months of 2015 was more...

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Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

$1K A Day: Feasible or Fictitious? Retail traders are hypnotically attracted to spectacular profits. Futures trading room operators know this and use performance to galvanize our interest: “89.9% win rate 5 years in a row”; “$18,367.94 in 21 days”; “46,572.79 in less than a month”; “$70,183.54 in 3.5 months,” or “$1,900,336.82”. Jon Burras (Numbers do Lie, 2012) states we believe that math is an objective reality and a number stands for a very specific and quantifiable amount. To many, a...

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What You Should Know About Binary Options

What You Should Know About Binary Options

“Binary Options.” There, I've said it. Binary Options are the red-headed-step-child of the investing world and for good reason. While at heart, they are a viable means of market speculation, in practice, they are often nothing more than a smokescreen for scam artists. This is primarily because they, as a vehicle for speculation, came to life on the Internet in the gray areas between countries, jurisdictions, and regulatory bodies. What you need to know is that not all binary options are...

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Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

If you are a trader, you need volatility in the markets to reach your goals. The toughest market to trade is one that sits in a tight range, and stays there without much movement in either direction.  A stagnant market can be taxing on one’s mind, and if you are participant, it can frustrate you and grind on you emotionally as well. When we are frustrated and make emotional decisions, they usually don’t work out well. On the flipside, a highly volatile market can be challenging as well....

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ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) had a strong down day yesterday (Mar. 25) and settled at the bottom of the daily range again, the third day this week that it has failed to show a late-afternoon rally. The futures closed at 2053.75, 31 points below the previous close, on heavier volume. The ES moved  moved step-by-step to test each of the breakout points established by last week's FOMC rally: 2078-76.50, 2064.50-66.50 and 2057.50-59.50. Those levels slowed the selling...

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