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The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited

The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited

Russia was once described by Sir Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”  Those words, spoken in 1939, eloquently described the Western sense of Moscow as inscrutable and a menacing country that plays by its own rules; perhaps they are no different now with the extraordinary exception that today’s Russia is dressed in diplomat’s pinstripes folded around a pugilist’s muscle with a checkbook of an oil baron.  What’s more, today Russia, along with China,...

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Trading When Moving At Warp Speed

Trading When Moving At Warp Speed

In today’s market environment, it isn’t the one who “has the money” that controls the market direction. Instead, it has changed to the one that “controls the information,” controls the direction of the markets. Instead of reading an article to see whether it could be bullish or bearish for the markets, we have created computers that do the reading and then trading for us. When these algorithms read something that they are programmed to be deemed bearish, they automatically remove any bid...

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Bear Pennant Makes Eurodollar A Nice Short

Bear Pennant Makes Eurodollar A Nice Short

The euro's value to the dollar (EURUSD) was one of the more bullish currency pairs in the first half of the year, but the trend reversed in May. The chart exhibits the Wall Street adage that “markets take the stairs going up and the elevator going down.” I don't see any technical evidence suggesting the downtrend is near an end. The Chart Since the beginning of August, EURUSD has been tracing out a small bear pennant. This comprises a tight triangle shape that characterizes a period of...

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Go Long: Concerns Over the Chinese Yuan’s Weakness Are Overblown

Go Long: Concerns Over the Chinese Yuan’s Weakness Are Overblown

On March 6, 2013 we initiated a long recommendation for our clients on the Chinese currency, the yuan, through the purchase of offshore, yuan-denominated bonds (DSUM) an exchange traded fund.   DSUM closed 2013 with a 6.32% gain, the year’s best-performing bond instrument on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to a dismal performance of -4.83% for the average emerging market bond fund. After this stellar performance, this year’s weakness in the yuan is no surprise to us.  While the U.S....

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Trading Psychology: Clear Your Head

Trading Psychology: Clear Your Head

As traders, we try to maintain a high level of concentration and performance at all times. The focus is on trading plans and processes, risk and reward, indicators and charts, coding and strategies, and about a million other possibilities at any given time. Truly, it is impossible for any human to keep track of all the information available.When you get to the point where nothing makes sense (we all get there) it’s time to look away for awhile. I call this “data fatigue” and it occurs on...

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Lindsay Analysis: Mirror Image Forecasting Method For Stocks

Lindsay Analysis: Mirror Image Forecasting Method For Stocks

In the preserved, written work of George Lindsay, he makes several references to an approach he calls “mirror image.” Unfortunately, the most he ever wrote was that he had never explained it in writing but hoped to someday. If he did, it has been lost to time. This is why the topic has not appeared in any of my three books about his work. [Editor's note: learn more about the work of George Lindsay here.] However, discussions with those who knew him, combined with a little common sense and...

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Are Interest Rates Headed Lower?

Are Interest Rates Headed Lower?

As interest rates have churned sideways over the last year, we’ve heard plenty of opinions on where they are going next.  With the big move up in 2013, the majority of opinions that we’ve seen are calling for higher rates on the horizon. At i10 Research, we let the charts do the talking and the chart of the TNX, which is the 10-year interest rate, shows that rates are not headed higher.  They are moving lower.  The trend in interest rates has been bearish since the start of 2014 and has...

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SPX: Cry Havoc! Only War Can Push This Market Down

SPX: Cry Havoc! Only War Can Push This Market Down

On Sunday evening the S&P 500 mini-futures (ESU4) traded above 1961.00, which means they gained back all the ground they lost on Friday when a now-discredited war report slammed the market down more than 20 points in a couple of hours. And it made much of that bounce while the market was closed! On Sunday the futures also busted through the 68% retracement level of the big drop that started at the end of July – the one that was supposed to be the start of the waterfall down, the...

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Trading Tactics: Use Resting Stops To Trigger Entries Into Sugar

Trading Tactics: Use Resting Stops To Trigger Entries Into Sugar

The October sugar futures contract has gone nowhere but down since becoming the lead month near the end of June. Some of this has been due to seasonality and some of it has to do with the considerable resistance that has built up between $.19-.20 per pound area. However, both of these may be currently working in favor of the long side. Seasonal Factors At Play The typical October sugar seasonality at this time is characterized by weakness through the middle of August followed by strength...

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How To Trade Forex: Fundamental Drivers For FX

How To Trade Forex: Fundamental Drivers For FX

Many FX Traders spend time learning how to spot trends or reversals on the chart without focusing on what causes those trends or reversals. The news, or fundamentals behind a currency pair, is often the reason for major moves that traders look to trade.  Today, you’ll receive a basic primer on major economic reports and how they impact Forex. [Editor's note: this is part two in a Learning To Trade Forex series. Read part one here. ] What Are Fundamentals? Before you were a trader, you...

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ETF Watch: Is The Russian Stock Rout Over?

ETF Watch: Is The Russian Stock Rout Over?

The crisis in Ukraine lingers on—yet Russian stocks have quietly rallied to new multi-week highs. After falling to as low as $23.00 in early August, the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) closed Thursday at $24.61—a rally of 7%. The reversal is driven by mounting evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin has pushed the current conflict as far as he reasonably can amid mounting sanctions and battlefield setbacks by pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine. In a speech in Crimea on Thursday,...

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US Stocks: Did You Miss That Correction?

US Stocks: Did You Miss That Correction?

I suppose many were expecting more in terms of price and time.  But if you were paying attention (as I was, because my stomach was churning) then you witnessed about a 4% drop in the indices in the matter of five or so days, and if you count the SPX futures it was about 5% (to the lows reached overnight on Aug 7/8).  And now, about a week later much of that lost ground has been recovered, to the dismay of many just waiting. I could only hear the naysayers clamoring for more downside.  this...

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Swing Trading in Commodities with VantagePoint and ...

Swing Trading in Commodities with VantagePoint and ...

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Track the Smart Money and Avoid Dumb Mistakes

Track the Smart Money and Avoid Dumb Mistakes

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Indentify Favorable Market Conditions with Larry ...

Indentify Favorable Market Conditions with Larry ...

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