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Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

  2014 was a banner year for coffee prices as the market rallied off of Brazilian crop concerns right up through the critical “flowering” season in October.  But as timely rains finally arrived  (just in time - as they usually do in Brazil) the market was forced to backtrack as projected crop damage ended up being much exaggerated. This steady trend lower in prices made coffee an ideal market for call sellers for the past 6 months. The question becomes, is it still ideal for call sellers?...

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Further Fed Confusion

Further Fed Confusion

As hard as the Fed has tried to be transparent and data dependent, there are times when they can be downright confusing.  The statement that followed the April meeting had many wondering if/when the Fed would raise rates, and certainly the response following made everyone nauseous.  The following day was also odd as European/Asian markets were able to digest the statement and come to a conclusion. It appears the Fed is frustrated, but not backed into a corner yet.  Certainly the timeline...

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Double Top Forming in the ES

Double Top Forming in the ES

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ES) had the kind of day on Thursday that makes long-term investors start trying to figure out if this time it really is the top. The June contract (ESM5) opened down, went down all day (breaking below 2090-2088, last year's high and a significant support area) and breaking the short-term momentum lines, the 20/40-day moving averages, and closing below them. Only a massive effort by the Plunge Protection Team – they tossed a third of the day's volume...

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Running out of Steam?

Running out of Steam?

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve had everyone’s attention with the FOMC announcement. I don’t think there were any surprises as the Fed left interest rates unchanged…for now. Speculation continues about when a rate hike is coming. I think most Fed forecasters would agree that June is off the table, while some are circling the September meeting on their calendars. The Fed has repeatedly told us they will rely on economic data (unemployment, inflation) to make their decision in regards to...

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Altera: Is A Buyout Still In The Works?

Altera: Is A Buyout Still In The Works?

Altera rallied to multi-year highs last month on speculation of Intel looking at a potential takeover offer for the smaller semiconductor company. Talks appeared to stall just a few weeks ago according to CNBC's David Faber, but the most interesting part of this is that Intel reportedly was willing to pay $50+ per share to acquire them. Unusual Options Activity On top of this, post initial M&A rumors and the rejection, options activity has been bullish in the May and June monthly...

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BBY-Options Strategy

BBY-Options Strategy

I like holding the cards, or at least stacking the odds in my favor.  Let me show you what I mean.  I had a major technical long trigger Tuesday morning in Best Buy (BBY).  Here’s the chart: Not to get too “technical” here, but we have two major indicators that signaled the long. First is what I call an inside bar entry and second was how it put in lows at or near the 200 Day Moving Average three days in a row(rejection at support). So for me, it’s onwards and upwards (hopefully). As an...

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Oh Well, Maybe Something Fun Tomorrow

Oh Well, Maybe Something Fun Tomorrow

As I am wont to do now and then … well, maybe more now than then, I feel the need to correct the economic picture. Simply, the US economy is in a pattern and Europe is on the mend, really. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 34,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended April 25, the lowest reading since April 2000, the Labor Department said. The pattern for the US economy is a bad winter, a good spring, a decent summer, a slight uphill move in the fall, and...

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A Market Without Purpose or Direction

A Market Without Purpose or Direction

Yesterday The S&P500 mini futures (ES) gapped down at the open yesterday (Wednesday) and stayed lower for the close. The first quarter GDP came in at 0.2% growth, well below expectations, in the morning session and even the usual Fed double-talk in the afternoon could not rescue the day. The June contract (ESM5) closed at 2099. This was a hair below to 2100 support, and a loss of 13 points for the day. The ES has now pulled back into the wedge pattern it has been trying to escape and...

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Hammering out a Bottom

Hammering out a Bottom

The volume profile chart of the Nasdaq Futures shown here is the day session only. The “Floor” is at the Weekly Pivot (4476), which marked the day-session close on Wednesday. This is good news for the bulls, since intraday probing took the Nasdaq down an additional 20 points, as the equity market tried to decipher rather dramatic action in the bonds. As noted yesterday, the corrective action won’t be over until the Nasdaq closes above the high volume node “ceiling” at 4522. This process is...

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Ceiling and Floor - NQ Volume Profile

Ceiling and Floor - NQ Volume Profile

The target for Tuesday was the unfilled gap and the lower boundary of the Upper Value Area, then at 4482. (The Upper Value Area is colored light green on the chart.)   While this was an obvious target, the market nevertheless obliged with a vengeance, testing the Weekly Pivot at 4472. The key resistance level now is the High Volume Node at 4522. Notably, the NQ was not able to close above it on the afternoon rebound. This establishes a ‘ceiling’ at 4522 and a ‘floor’ at the Weekly Pivot....

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Soybean Exports: Will we see More Cancellations?

Soybean Exports: Will we see More Cancellations?

Last week’s weekly export sales report showed 102 thousand metric tons of beans were sold the week prior for future shipment.  This was down 67% from the week prior and 29% under the four week average.  Yet prices rallied 8 cents into the close.  So what is up with the bearish report and bullish response?  There were several issues here.  One, energy prices such as crude oil finished the session higher most likely signaling inflationary buying.  The US dollar was lower giving us a signal...

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Banging on the Ceiling Again

Banging on the Ceiling Again

YesterdayThe S&P500 mini futures June contract (ESM5) traded erratically yesterday (Tuesday) in what was almost the mirror image of Monday's price action. Overnight it dropped to 2095, which has been an active support level for several weeks, then rallied to open at about the previous day's close, and moved a little higher after the open.So far so good. Then it made what was almost a flash crash – down 15 points in 20 minutes on heavy volume – before the Plunge Protection Team woke up...

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Stocks

Swing and Day Trade Stocks with the Larry Williams Premium Indicators

Swing and Day Trade Stocks with the Larry Williams Premium Indicators

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Forex

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