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Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

Oil prices have been under pressure as the dollar soars. For many, they believe that the strength in the dollar is a major reason why oil will not be able to rally. Yet the truth is that while in recent years, the dollar-oil inverse correlation has been very tight, throughout history that has not always been the case. In fact, in the oil market, as well as other commodities, we may be at the verge of a total breakdown of what has been considered to be an almost dogmatic truth - which is as...

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I Spy: Another Three Day Weekend

I Spy: Another Three Day Weekend

I love selling premium, and in certain market conditions this is one of the best strategies for making money in the stock market. What are we talking about here? It’s all about options, and when we look at trading on the surface, it’s a simple zero sum game – one side wins while the other side loses. Yet, that would be the end game, when options expire at expiration. We can certainly have winners and losers on both sides at any point in time prior to option expiration, and that is often...

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Date with Destiny

Date with Destiny

A capitulatory opening gap down on Thursday was repaired after our initial 4285 target was attained (see yesterday’s forecast). The “trick” with using Volume Profile effectively is to experiment with look-back periods in order to get a semi-Gaussian distribution. That means a volume distribution with a clear central peak and “shoulders” on either side. The 90-day look back in the NQ does the trick. As mentioned yesterday, the 4210 area, which is the Volume Profile Point of Control (VPPOC)...

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Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

If you are a trader, you need volatility in the markets to reach your goals. The toughest market to trade is one that sits in a tight range, and stays there without much movement in either direction.  A stagnant market can be taxing on one’s mind, and if you are participant, it can frustrate you and grind on you emotionally as well. When we are frustrated and make emotional decisions, they usually don’t work out well. On the flipside, a highly volatile market can be challenging as well....

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The Big “I” In Insurance

The Big “I” In Insurance

Ever have a “friend” whose house was broken into and then realized he or she did not have replacement insurance? Or one who had a tree fall on his or her car resulting in damage that ever so slightly exceeded the ever-so-large deductible? Usually that “friend” is the exception not the rule, as Americans, for the most part, do insure their cars, homes, and even their lives. And, of course, when it comes to our health, we have no choice – whether you love it or loathe it, Obamacare has made...

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Channel Gold Higher

Channel Gold Higher

Gold futures moved up a fifth straight session to end at a near three-week high on Tuesday, with traders opting for the safe haven appeal of the precious metal as equities in the U.S. ticked lower amid continued worries over Greece's financial woes. Since the Fed announcement, the Dollar has been under duress while Gold has rallied mostly due to heavy short-covering in the market. Looking at the chart above, the first major leg down from the highs made in January fell 119.00. However,...

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Over the last 12 months, Macau casino gaming stocks are down by an average of 50% as the world’s largest casino-gaming market experienced an unprecedented decline in gross gaming revenues (GGR). GGR in Macau experienced its first yearly decline since data became publicly available in 2002, falling by 2.6% last year to $44 billion as a result of the Chinese government’s anti-graft movement, Macau’s hotel room constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy. The first two months of 2015 was more...

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Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

$1K A Day: Feasible or Fictitious? Retail traders are hypnotically attracted to spectacular profits. Futures trading room operators know this and use performance to galvanize our interest: “89.9% win rate 5 years in a row”; “$18,367.94 in 21 days”; “46,572.79 in less than a month”; “$70,183.54 in 3.5 months,” or “$1,900,336.82”. Jon Burras (Numbers do Lie, 2012) states we believe that math is an objective reality and a number stands for a very specific and quantifiable amount. To many, a...

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What You Should Know About Binary Options

What You Should Know About Binary Options

“Binary Options.” There, I've said it. Binary Options are the red-headed-step-child of the investing world and for good reason. While at heart, they are a viable means of market speculation, in practice, they are often nothing more than a smokescreen for scam artists. This is primarily because they, as a vehicle for speculation, came to life on the Internet in the gray areas between countries, jurisdictions, and regulatory bodies. What you need to know is that not all binary options are...

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Hot Cocoa May Be Cooling Off

Hot Cocoa May Be Cooling Off

Fundamentals point to a Call Selling Opportunity in a “Back Page” Market Last week’s strong US Employment report gave the proverbial “all clear” to the US economy and stoked speculation that interest rates are destined to increase as early as this summer. This had added extra fuel to the ongoing rally in the US Dollar. The continuing strength in the dollar has been a macro force weighing on prices of a variety of commodities in recent months.  Cocoa has been one market to buck that trend...

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ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

Yesterday The S&P 500 mini-futures (ESM5) had a strong down day yesterday (Mar. 25) and settled at the bottom of the daily range again, the third day this week that it has failed to show a late-afternoon rally. The futures closed at 2053.75, 31 points below the previous close, on heavier volume. The ES moved  moved step-by-step to test each of the breakout points established by last week's FOMC rally: 2078-76.50, 2064.50-66.50 and 2057.50-59.50. Those levels slowed the selling...

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How Traders Are Betting Against Tech Stocks

How Traders Are Betting Against Tech Stocks

Leading the sell-off of the major U.S. equity indices on March 25th was the NASDAQ, and, more specifically, it was the semiconductor stocks. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF dropped nearly 5% on more than three times the average daily volume. For the week, the semiconductor ETF is off by more than 6%, which may lead you to believe that this is overblown and has probably run its course. However, when you look at technical analysis (the charts) and bearish options order flow, the...

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