Economic Events: (GMT)
Just a heads up since gold is volatile and will react to most economic indicators we will begin to post the daily calendar with events that could affect the price of gold. The gold price is sensitive to a number of scheduled U.S. and Euro area macroeconomic announcements–including retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation. Gold’s high sensitivity to real interest rates and its unique role as a safe-haven and store of value typically leads to a counter-cyclical reaction to surprise news, in contrast to their commodities. It also shows a particularly high sensitivity to negative surprises that might lead financial investors to become more risk averse.
These results have a number of implications. To reduce the uncertainty of the return on gold transactions, traders may wish to time their orders flow so as to avoid the release of information that has been shown to affect prices. For longer-term market participants, these results provide confirmation of the pro-cyclical bias of many commodities and gold’s role as a safe-haven during periods of economic uncertainty.
06:45 CHF GDP (QoQ) -0.1% 0.2%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
07:00 GBP Nationwide HPI (MoM) 0.3% -0.2%
The Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) measures the change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide. It is the U.K.’s second earliest report on housing inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
08:30 CHF SVME PMI 48.5 47.3
The Schweizerischer Verband f?r Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME) Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
08:50 EUR French Manufacturing PMI 50.2 50.2
08:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI 50.1 50.1
09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI 49.0 49.0
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.1
The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR or GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR or GBP.
10:00 EUR CPI (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 10.4% 10.4%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact as there are several earlier indicators related to labor conditions in the euro zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR
13:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% 0.2%
The Core Personal Consumption spending (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
13:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) 0.4% 0.0%
Personal Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. However, this report tends to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier.
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 353K 351K
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3400K 3392K
Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. Continuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance.
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index 54.6 54.1
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
15:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Federal ReserveChairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington DC. The testimony is in two parts; the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. The Q&A portion of the testimony can see heavy market volatility for the duration.
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.6%
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. The data tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending.
23:30 JPY Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) -0.4% -0.4%
The Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food.
Gold Fundamental Analysis March 1, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Gold plunged in afternoon trading falling from 1792.15 dropping to 1705.25 in a matter of minutes to settle at 1713.35. As Fed Chief Bernanke spoke gold began to drop. Some investors think it is the Fed Directors way of controlling inflation. Gold lost over 75.00 in just a short while. The shiny metal had picked up a small gain in early trading on the ECB loan program. The European Central Bank on Wednesday confirmed a larger-than-expected 529.5 billion euro ($713.4 billion) in loans to banks at its second three-year long-term refinancing operation.
The dollar turned up against major currencies and extended gains against the euro after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fueled strength in the dollar, and as upbeat U.S. economic data dulled safe-haven demand for the metal. In testimony prepared for the House Financial Services Committee, Bernanke said that recent improvement in employment has put the Fed on alert and that it’s watching incoming data closely.Bernanke stopped short of saying the improvement in the jobless rate meant a better economy ahead.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the economy expanded at a 3 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter — the fastest pace since the spring of 2010. It exceeded the previous estimate of 2.8 percent.
Gold 5minute chart.. You can see when Bernanke speaks
February 29, 2012 end of the month Economic Releases actual v. forecast
| NZD | Business Confidence | 28.00 | 16.90 | |
| AUD | HIA New Home Sales (MoM) | -7.3% | -4.9% | |
| GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence | -29 | -27 | -29 |
| AUD | Construction Work Done (QoQ) | -4.6% | -0.6% | 11.7% |
| AUD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| AUD | Private Sector Credit (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| JPY | Housing Starts (YoY) | -1.1% | -3.3% | -7.3% |
| EUR | German Import Price Index (MoM) | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| EUR | French Consumer Spending (MoM) | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| CHF | KOF Leading Indicators | -0.12 | -0.11 | -0.15 |
| DKK | Danish GDP (QoQ) | 0.2% | 0.6% | -0.5% |
| SEK | Swedish GDP (QoQ) | -1.1% | -0.7% | 1.6% |
| EUR | German Unemployment Rate | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% |
| EUR | German Unemployment Change | 0K | -5K | -26K |
| GBP | M4 Money Supply (MoM) | 1.6% | -0.8% | -1.4% |
| GBP | Mortgage Approvals | 59K | 54K | 55K |
| GBP | Net Lending to Individuals | 1.8B | 0.8B | 0.9B |
| EUR | CPI (YoY) | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| EUR | Core CPI (YoY) | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| EUR | German 10-Year Bund Auction | 1.830% | 1.820% | |
| USD | MBA Mortgage Applications | -0.3% | -4.5% | |
| USD | GDP Price Index (QoQ) | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| USD | GDP (QoQ) | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule
Mar 01 09:30 Spain Bono auction
Mar 01 09:50 France OAT auction
Mar 01 10.30 UK Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt
Originally posted here
