By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is exchanging at 0.9866. The Looney is down 0.1% since Friday’s close, but is still trading close to its 7-month high. Today, Canadian GDP was reported at -0.2% shocking the markets, as economists had expected it to come in at 0.2% m/m, with all four Canadian banks (the fifth didn’t submit a forecast) calling for a slightly below consensus print of 0.1%.
After last week’s shift in tone from the BoC drove CAD strength, this week’s round of fundamental releases (including GDP and employment) will need to come in at or above consensus to keep CAD’s new upward trend in place. Investors have recently increased their long CAD position, which according to the CFTC now stands at $4.4bn. CAD strength is a difficult trend to fight, particularly on the crosses, leaving us biased to be long CAD against USD, AUD and EUR. The upcoming BoC meeting and rate decision is all but in the bag now.
Economic Data for April 30, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
KRW |
South Korean Industrial Production (MoM) |
-3.1% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
-9.4% |
3.0% |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
EUR |
Greek Retail Sales (YoY) |
-13.00% |
-10.60% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
CAD |
GDP (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
61.0 |
62.2 |
Economic Events for the European and US Markets
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Index 53.5 53.4
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rates the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is compiled from a survey of approximately 400 purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. On the index, a level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
Government Bond Auctions (this week)
Date Time Country
May 01 09:30 UK
May 02 09:10 Sweden
May 02 09:30 Portugal
May 02 13:00 US
May 03 08:30 Spain
May 03 08:50 France
May 03 09:10 Sweden
May 03 09:30 UK
May 08 09:15 Austria
May 08 09:30 Belgium
May 08 14:30 UK
May 08 15:30 Italy
May 08 17:00 US
May 09 09:10 Sweden
May 09 09:30 Germany
May 09 09:30 Swiss
May 09 09:30 UK
May 09 14:30 Sweden
May 09 15:30 Italy
May 09 17:00 US
May 10 15:00 US
May 10 17:00 US
May 11 09:10 Italy BOT auction
May 11 10:00 Belgium
Click here for updated USD/CAD News.
Originally posted here
