Monday another day for the bulls, early on the day looked ready to fall and we still held up throughout the day. Volume fell off and underpaced Friday’s despite the first three hours being ahead of Friday’s. By the second half of the day range set in and the volume left the table. The TRIN closed at .75 bullish and stayed in range most of the day, the VIX closed at 25.38 another new low on the year. Oil closed at $71.49 up $2.33 a barrel and gold down 40 cents to $940.60 an ounce.
The narrow range again left the day in a slumber and lacking conviction once again. The monthly chart is looking good for the bulls to hold the gains and finish in the green barring disaster into Tuesday. The VIX being this far below the moving averages is still a concern for a snap there, which leaves the market vulnerable for a drop. Data will pick up into Tuesday and we see the big stuff Wednesday and Thursday which will kick off July with a bang. No pun intended ahead of the 4th of July, but it is rather ironic that July could get the air taken out of it quickly. Tuesday holding the months gains will be the focus and starting the day range bound for the 9:45 and 10:00 data is likely to be our tone. We’ll take that first half hour range and bracket it for direction on the day. Expect volume to pick up a hair and more range to just try to hold on into Wednesday when the market starts a fresh month/quarter and the 2nd half of the year.
Futures did test the daily pivots, but not the weekly pivots. So those are under us and still open for a look into the next three days on this shortened week. The NQ has 1489.75 and then 1511.25 overhead to be tested as key resistance levels. The ES has 926.50 and up to 938 to watch for as resistance.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, All day vehicle sales, Thursday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday US Market closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market SCHN and after the bell ZZ, NCTY, Wednesday pre market GIS, UNF, STZ and after the bell DMAN, Thursday pre market MEI, MSM and nothing after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1480.25, weekly pivot 1457, monthly 1405.50. Support: 1469.50, 1462.50, 1455.50, 1452.25, 1445.50, 1442.75, 1435.50, 1429.25, 1424.75, 1423.25 fills gap. Resistance: 1481.75, 1485 fills 6/12 gap, 1489.75 78.6%, 1495, 1511.25
