Data, data everywhere, nor any drop to please. My "retake" on the famous line from the Rhyme
of the Ancient Mariner points to my attitude about the market these
days. At the moment, whatever good
economic data comes out can't really move the market to the upside. Partly, the good data is streaming beneath
surface and partly, Europe still dominates the headlines, and rightfully so for the
However, knowing me as you do by now, you know I will point
out the good data flowing underneath the current of news. Remember, the market
will ultimately turn on the global economy and the global economy will follow
the natural cycle and turn up. In the
meantime, economic signs are pointing to a release of at least two inhibitors
on the US economy.
The US housing market collapse exacerbated the recession that began
in 2007, and many economists and pundits argued that a full economic recovery
could not happen until the housing market healed. Over the last two years, signs of healing have
popped up, but the market has remained stagnant. One reason is that the news
has hammered the idea that a rising tide of foreclosures were coming both last
year and this year. Once again, the oracles missed the mark, or at least they
have through the first five months of 2012.
filings in the U.S. fell to a five-year low last month as lenders sought to
avoid seizing property and a housing recovery showed signs of taking hold.
Another part of
the coming real estate market solution is that as the fear generated from the
housing and market collapses in 2008 fades, Americans will see the generational
opportunity in front of them.
for homebuyers increased to the highest on record in the first quarter, based
on the combination of low mortgage rates, low prices and improved incomes
measured in a Realtors index.
inhibitor on the US
economy has been the high price of gasoline.
The albatross hanging on the neck of the US
consumer is going away. As I have said
recently, lower gas prices will be a huge boost, stimulation if you will, to
the US economy.
near the lowest price in more than six months after U.S.
stockpiles rose to the highest level since 1990.
is up. Not only do the surveys point this out, but the rash of retail data that
has come out recently supports it as well.
For example, one retail bellwether is Walmart, the store of the masses.
same-store sales have risen for three straight quarters following nine
consecutive quarterly declines.
yes, it is a drag, but don't lose sight of the economic cycle, which slowly but
surely is churning to the upside. Yes,
things are getting better, slowly and surely.
the day; Invest in your life