Today’s ADP Employment report estimated that the US created 133,000 new jobs. A fine enough number, but it fell short of expectations for 154,000. ADP has been estimating job gains under the government’s numbers recently. But neither ADP nor the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) numbers have been particularly robust.
Today’s Jobless Claims were a bit disappointing as well as it showed a gain on 10,000 new claims at 383,000 vs. expectations for 370,000. They also upwardly revised last week’s numbers by 3,000 to 373K.
The four week average rose by 3,750 to 374,000. There was a time when dipping below 400,000 was met with cheers (and market gains), but having spent plenty of time below 400K, the market is looking for more.
To be clear, the Jobless Claims are not that bad. And neither is the ADP report. But ‘not so bad’ is only good enough to keep the market from a larger drop. But we’ll need bigger gains to get the market back on track and go meaningfully higher. This is especially true as investors worry how much a deteriorating European situation will affect world growth.
If the US had more of a cushion of economic growth, the concerns over Europe as it relates to the US wouldn’t be so acute. But as the US economy slows, other outside influences become more pronounced here at home.
Let’s hope tomorrow’s Employment Situation report paints a better picture.
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