By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The USD/CAD is trading at 1.0319 as the USD continues to gather momentum. Markets shrugged off disappointing eco data, and decided to wait for the all important Nonfarm payroll report to verify the ADP and unemployment figures released today. The US revised down their GDP estimates but the Current Account surprised markets coming in substantially lower with is positive for the USD.
No major negative news headlines, an increased focused and support for the ERF initiative, a weaker than expected European CPI (2.4%), expectation that Ireland will vote in favor of the fiscal compact, worries that markets are oversold and the upcoming release of China’s PMI, Eurozone PMIs and nonfarm employment have markets vaguely more positive today. In this environment equities are stronger, commodities are off their lows, bond yields are mixed and the USD has lost some of yesterday’s strength, that was until late morning in US trading when investors sentiment turned negative, commodities fell, equities turned bearish and the USD picked up momentum as the euro fell below the 1.24 price again.
Risk reversals remain elevated, suggesting there is still the desire to protect against USD strength.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for May 31, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-8.7% |
0.7% |
6.0% |
|
AUD |
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
6.1% |
4.0% |
-0.7% |
|
CHF |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.3% |
-2.6% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Rate |
6.7% |
6.8% |
6.8% |
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
-5K |
18K |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
133K |
148K |
113K |
|
Current Account |
-10.3B |
-11.0B |
-9.7B |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
383K |
370K |
373K |
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3242K |
3250K |
3278K |
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
56.5 |
56.2 |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Previous |
|
Jun 1 |
TBD |
GBP |
|
|
7:15 |
CHF |
4.2% |
|
|
7:30 |
CHF |
46.9 |
|
|
7:45 |
EUR |
43.8 |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
50.5 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
10.9% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
115K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
8.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.0% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
54.8 |
Click here for further USD/CAD Forecast.
Originally posted here
