By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The AUD/USD followed its cousins to move up against the weakened USD on Friday, as markets were surprised by the plans offered by the EU Ministers. The immediate action was a move to additional risk, which benefitted commodity currencies. Monday will be the tell, after traders have had the weekend to view the plans.The pair ended the month at 1.0237
This week brings us another meeting of the RBA and markets are expecting rates to be on hold.
Australia also releases most of its eco data the beginning of each month, so the Aussie will be active this week with retail sales, building consents, services and trade balance all released.
The EU will remain the focus for the early part of the week, as eyes move to ISM and NFP in the US, with hopes of the US economic recovery sparked by better than expected results.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Jun 29, 2012 |
1.0237 |
1.0032 |
1.0257 |
1.0021 |
2.04% |
|
Jun 28, 2012 |
1.0032 |
1.0074 |
1.0127 |
0.9997 |
-0.43% |
|
Jun 27, 2012 |
1.0075 |
1.0047 |
1.0090 |
1.0040 |
0.28% |
|
Jun 26, 2012 |
1.0047 |
1.0011 |
1.0085 |
1.0010 |
0.35% |
|
Jun 25, 2012 |
1.0012 |
1.0038 |
1.0041 |
0.9970 |
-0.25% |
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 26 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
301M |
305M |
335M |
|
Jun 27 |
JPY |
Retail Sales y/y |
3.6% |
3.1% |
5.7% |
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales m/m |
0.7% |
6.9% |
||
|
NZD |
NBNZ Business Confidence |
12.6 |
27.1 |
||
|
Jun 28 |
NZD |
Building Consents m/m |
-7.1% |
-7.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Household Spending y/y |
4.0% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.6% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
JPY |
Prelim Industrial Production m/m |
-3.1% |
-2.7% |
-0.2% |
|
|
AUD |
Private Sector Credit m/m |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
Historical:
Highest: 1.1080USDon Jul 27, 2011
Average: 0.9126 USD over this period
Lowest: 0.6007USD Oct 27, 2008
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 2 |
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
53.5 |
|
9:30pm |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
5.1% |
-8.7% |
|
|
9:30pm |
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings y/y |
0.6% |
0.2% |
|
|
Jul 3 |
12:30am |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
10:00am |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
7:30pm |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
43.5 |
||
|
9:30pm |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 4 |
9:30pm |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.51B |
-0.20B |
|
Jul 5 |
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
101K |
133K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
385K |
386K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
11:00am |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
||
|
Jul 6 |
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
92K |
69K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here for further AUD/USD Forecast.
Originally posted here
