By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY ended the month on a high note, after the euro sailed against all of its partners on the release of a plan from the EU Ministers.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Jun 29, 2012 |
101.05 |
98.67 |
101.39 |
98.54 |
2.41% |
|
Jun 28, 2012 |
98.67 |
99.35 |
99.47 |
98.33 |
-0.69% |
|
Jun 27, 2012 |
99.35 |
99.22 |
99.61 |
99.08 |
0.13% |
|
Jun 26, 2012 |
99.22 |
99.60 |
99.89 |
98.75 |
-0.37% |
|
Jun 25, 2012 |
99.59 |
101.03 |
101.03 |
99.17 |
-1.42% |
This week saw Japan pass an increase in consumption tax, which took its toll on Prime Minister Noda’s coalition government which is in turmoil, after spending all of his political capital to pass the law.
Most of the week markets continued on risk aversion mode until Friday’s news. The euro surged adding over 2 cents against the USD, while investors also moved to more risk assets, but markets will not fully digest the moves until Monday.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks
Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie and the Kiwi
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 26 |
NZD |
Trade Balance |
301M |
305M |
335M |
|
Jun 27 |
JPY |
Retail Sales y/y |
3.6% |
3.1% |
5.7% |
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales m/m |
0.7% |
6.9% |
||
|
NZD |
NBNZ Business Confidence |
12.6 |
27.1 |
||
|
Jun 28 |
NZD |
Building Consents m/m |
-7.1% |
-7.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Household Spending y/y |
4.0% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
|
|
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI y/y |
-0.6% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
JPY |
Prelim Industrial Production m/m |
-3.1% |
-2.7% |
-0.2% |
|
|
AUD |
Private Sector Credit m/m |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
Historical:
Highest: 156.83 JPY on Sep 22, 2008
Average: 118.28 JPY over this period.
Lowest: 95.61 JPY on Jun 01, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 2 |
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
52.1 |
53.5 |
|
9:30pm |
AUD |
Building Approvals m/m |
5.1% |
-8.7% |
|
|
9:30pm |
JPY |
Average Cash Earnings y/y |
0.6% |
0.2% |
|
|
Jul 3 |
12:30am |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
10:00am |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
7:30pm |
AUD |
AIG Services Index |
43.5 |
||
|
9:30pm |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
|
|
Jul 4 |
9:30pm |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-0.51B |
-0.20B |
|
Jul 5 |
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
101K |
133K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
385K |
386K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
53.1 |
53.7 |
|
|
11:00am |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-0.1M |
||
|
Jul 6 |
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
92K |
69K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
Click here for updated EUR/JPY News.
Originally posted here
