By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/USD is trading at 1.2268 moving up a few pips after the US nonfarm payroll release. Today’s report showed the US created 163K new jobs, when it was forecast at 100K.
The euro is stronger, and up 0.8% as it retraces yesterday’s decline and is supported by a general improvement in data given stronger services PMIs and better than expected retail sales for the euro area. Both Germany and the euro area’s services PMIs improved from the July 24th advance, coming in at 50.3 and 47.9, respectively. However, the euro has remained on a downward trend over the course of the week, and today’s rally has yet to retrace Wednesday’s open.
Despite a considerable amount of data, event, and headline risk vying for dominance, this week’s largest moves in FX occurred over the course of two central bank events. While both the Fed and the ECB garnered a considerable amount of attention, and both generated overall weakness in the majors vs the USD, the relative declines seen over the course of the ECB press conference were by far the greatest. The reaction was largely the result of expectations vs outcome, as comments made by President Draghi a week ahead of the ECB meeting had raised hopes for forceful action. The lack of follow through, with credible action, left markets disappointed. Despite hopes for action on August 1st from the FOMC, the disappointment was of a lesser degree.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports
Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Aug. 03 |
TRY |
Turkish CPI (MoM) |
-0.23% |
-0.10% |
-0.90% |
EUR |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
0.8% |
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
163K |
100K |
64K |
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.3% |
8.2% |
8.2% |
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.5 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
172K |
110K |
73K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
Aug 6 |
8:30 |
EUR |
-29.6 |
|
23:01 |
GBP |
1.4% |
||
Aug 7 |
7:00 |
CHF |
364.9B |
|
7:15 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
||
8:00 |
EUR |
0.8% |
||
8:30 |
GBP |
1.2% |
||
10:00 |
EUR |
0.6% |
||
14:00 |
GBP |
-0.2% |
||
Aug 8 |
5:45 |
CHF |
-8 |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
|||
10:00 |
EUR |
1.6% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
-0.9% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
1.3% |
||
14:30 |
USD |
|||
Aug 9 |
8:00 |
EUR |
||
8:30 |
GBP |
-8.4B |
||
12:30 |
USD |
-48.7B |
||
12:30 |
USD |
|||
Aug 10 |
6:45 |
EUR |
-1.9% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-2.2% |
||
12:30 |
USD |
-2.7% |
||
18:00 |
USD |
-59.7B |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 07 00:30 Japan
Aug 07 09:15 Austria
Aug 07 14:30 UK
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 Germany
Aug 08 10:00 Norway
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 15:30 Italy
Aug 09 17:00 US
Aug 10 10:00 Belgium
Aug 13 09:10 Italy
Aug 13 09:10 Norway
Aug 13 09:30 Germany
Aug 14 09:10 Greece
Aug 14 09:10 Italy
Aug 14 09:30 Belgium
Aug 14 14:30 UK
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Click here for updated EUR/USD News.
Originally posted here