Following is a brief holiday report.
You have to love this market. It’s like the weather in Maine. Blink your eyes and it changes. It really doesn’t know what it wants to do. There’s enough bad news around for everyone to keep the bears thinking it’ll work out in their favor, but they don’t have the biggest factor in their favor, which would be Mr. Bernanke. He is giving the market protection. Once again today, he basically said he’ll do what it takes to keep the market afloat. That he’s ready to implement whatever is needed to keep the economy moving along in a positive fashion.
Now, he didn’t give QE3 today, but who needs to do anything when the fear of doing it is enough to keep the bears quiet. Listen. If you’re a bear, you have to fear waking up one day to QE3 in effect, and thus, having a 300-400 point move up in the Dow. You’d be trapped and that’s what I believe is holding the market up. It certainly isn’t the global fundamentals. If that’s all it was, we’d be in market free fall. It’s all about Fed Bernanke.
We woke up today to a strong gap up, only to see it all go away with the markets turning south, once the Fed Bernanke was done with his speech. After a quick, sharp move lower, it eventually recovered, the bears seemingly using any weakness to bail out of some plays. It’s understandable, if you fear the almighty Bernanke. I would surely be afraid to short here wondering what I may wake up to. So when the day was done, we had a decent day.
Now we turn our attention to Tuesday, which is when we come back from the holiday weekend and deal with the incredibly important ISM Manufacturing Report. It’s never easy on the market, is it! For now, we’re trading in between gaps at 3138 and 3183 on the Nasdaq. Whichever goes first will turn things more directional short-term, so watch for that. Nothing bearish right now, but nothing overly bullish either. Some exposure is fine.
Have a nice Labor Day Weekend!
Peace,
Jack
