* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight trading, the European stock markets rallied on news that Euro zone leaders meeting in Brussels agreed late Monday to disburse fresh bailout funds to cash-starved Greece. Most market watchers had reckoned EU leaders would grant new monies to Greece. The gist of the deal calls for Greece to cut its debt to 124% of GDP by 2020 and a reduction in the interest rate charged to Greece on the loans. The Euro currency also was somewhat supported on the Greece news. However, the world market place showed no significant reaction to the as-expected news. A heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday could produce significant market moves. U.S. data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, advance durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the consumer confidence index. Traders and investors are also focused on the negotiations among U.S. lawmakers and President Obama regarding the so-called “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that are approaching. Congress is back from its Thanksgiving break, so there will likely be some more news on the fiscal cliff front this week, which could be market-sensitive. Meantime, in the Middle East there are growing tensions in Egypt, as its president awarded himself major powers last week, and the public did not like it. Protesting in the streets is occurring this week. This situation bears close watching and if it escalates, it will more significantly impact markets.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady early today but did hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls still have some upside near-term momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,407.40 and then at 1,415.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,395.20 and then at 1,387.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,660.00 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,646.25 and then at Monday’s low of 2,623.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 12,900 and then at 12,865. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 12,961 and then at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149
22/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 148 31/32 and then at Monday’s low of 148 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.05.5 and then at 133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.29.0 and then at Monday’s low of 132.25.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading today but did hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls have faded. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.60 and then at 80.75. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.27 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. A bullish rounding-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $87.27 and then at $86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were firmer in overnight trading. Grain market bulls are still working to regain upside near-term
technical momentum. Perceived bargain hunting and short covering have been seen recently. Focus of traders this week will be on fresh demand news and on weather in South American corn and soybean regions.
