The phrase that comes to mind this Tuesday morning after a spate of good market news and positive data is “lack of conviction.” Housing prices up, US order for core capital goods up, and the IMF and the EU provided a fresh bandage for Greece. The market seemed to like all of that, and then it didn’t rather quickly, I might add. We are seeing just more of the same – volatility. Interestingly, though, the VIX is also down as I write and it is holding in the 15 zone. I like that, just as I like what the continuing housing recovery is doing for the US economy.
- The 3.6% increase from a year earlier is more than three times the rise in the previous quarter and was the biggest jump in prices since the second quarter of 2010. But that 2010 rise was much more of a temporary blip caused by a homebuyer’s tax credit of up to $8,000 on homes purchased in late 2009 and early 2010.
Now, here is the really cool thing about the jump in US housing prices – they reflect purchases initiated in October. That signals a strong closing to the “traditional shopping season” for homes. Historically, the real estate sector settles in for a cozy winter nap, and then it awakens in the spring. It will be interesting to watch what happens next month.
Regardless of what happens in December, all things being equal, this spring could be a big one for US real estate, especially when the economy lurches forward after the resolution of the so-called fiscal cliff. As I have said before, keep the homebuilders in your sights and the REITs as well. Now, onto a question from a reader.
- What are the best programs to learn how to be a top-notch stock trader? Should I spend the time to get a CFA or take some options courses? There are so many programs on the market that it is hard to know which direction to head in.
As you say, there are so many courses out there, it is impossible for me to know which ones are good and which ones are not. I do like the idea of becoming a CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst), as that will cover the broad scope of trading. If you want to trade options, options courses are certainly available. Of the two choices, I like the first better for the reason stated – the education will be broader. I also like the CFA route because it will be money well spent, whereas, taking a “course” that could cost thousands might not get you what you want. If you do choose to go the non-CFA course route, be careful, as there is lot of flimflam out there. Make sure your good money does go to bad people …
It seems odd to me that despite all the negative news about the fiscal cliff and the US economy, the US consumer not only projects positive sentiment in surveys, the US consumer is spending big money. This reality flies in the face of my belief that the breathless media has an inordinately large impact on consumers’ perception of reality.
Given the outcome of the US election after hundreds of billions of dollars were spent on advertising and countless hours of media dribble about how tight the race was, could it be that US consumers are finally disregarding the breathless media for something called facts? I sure would like to think so, as this would keep the positive economic flow going, since so much of the economy depends on consumers spending and the market likes consumers spending.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
