* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It’s a keener risk mentality day in the market place early Thursday. As the rhetoric continues among U.S. lawmakers and President Obama regarding the so-called “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that are approaching, House Speaker John Boehner said late Wednesday he is optimistic there will be a deal reached by the end of the year. There was more upbeat commentary coming from the U.S. lawmakers Wednesday, which boosted the U.S. stock market and spilled over into more positive attitudes in Asia and Europe overnight. There was also some more upbeat economic data coming out of the European Union Thursday. Lower unemployment in Germany and upbeat business confidence in the EU were reported. The Euro rose against the U.S. dollar overnight, while Spanish and Italian bond yields declined to their lowest levels in months. Declining Spanish and Italian bond yields suggest a stabilizing European Union debt situation, even though serious financial problems in the bloc remain. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the December meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC would produce further monetary policy stimulus (QE4). That was mildly market-sensitive and has given the raw commodity sector a bit of support. In the Middle East, the Egyptian political unrest continues to simmer. Meantime, a report from the United Nations said Iran continues to expand its nuclear enrichment program. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, gross domestic product data for the third quarter, pending home sales, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and the ICSC chain store sales report.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer today and hit a fresh three-week high as the bulls are gaining some fresh upside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,425.00 and then at the November high of 1,431.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,405.00 and then at 1,395.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the November high of 2,694.00 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,659.75 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,000 and then at 12,965. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,100 and then at 13,150. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today on some profit taking and amid a “risk-on” day in the market place.Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 26/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 16/32 and then at 149 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.13.5 and then at this week’s high of 133.18.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 133.08.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading today. Bears have some fresh downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.54 and then at this week’s high of 80.82. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.27 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.00 and then at $86.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Markets were firmer in overnight trading, amid the “risk on” trader mentality in the market place and bullish outside market forces–lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil. Grain market bulls have been working to regain upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that near-term market lows are in place. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales report.
