* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It was an uneventful overnight trading session overseas. Fresh European Union economic data saw Euro zone inflation fall to an annual rate of 2.2%–the lowest level in nearly two years in November. Meantime EU unemployment rose to 11.7% of the work force–the highest since 1995 when EU record-keeping on such statistics began. The focus of the market place remains on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” that is fast approaching. U.S. lawmakers are still spewing rhetoric that is not encouraging a deal will be reached. However, such bluster coming from Washington, D.C. normal and the market place realizes that, as evidenced by the insignificant market moves on Thursday, when both Democrats and Republicans were on the offensive and blaming the other side for lack of progress on the matter. The market place presently perceives there will be a last-minute agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff. Friday is the last trading day of the week and of the month, which may make for some more active trading due to some position-squaring. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, and the ISM Chicago business survey.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and hit another fresh three-week high overnight as the bulls are gaining fresh upside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the November high of 1,431.40 and then at 1,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,410.00 and then at 1,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit another fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the November high of 2,694.00 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,670.75 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another fresh three-week high overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,000 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,955. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,100 and then at 13,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 150 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 150 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 149 23/32 and then at Thursday’s low of 149 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.19.0 and then at 133.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.13.0 and then at 133.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading today and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Bears have some fresh downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 80.54 and then at this week’s high of 80.82. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.14 and then at 80.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $88.69 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $87.47 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Markets were weaker in overnight trading. Trading has been choppy this week as traders focus on supply and demand matters worldwide, as well as on the key outside markets. It could be in the coming weeks that wheat becomes the price leader in the grain futures markets.
