Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 1/23/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Health Care sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 1/23/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bullish on 1/22/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,494.81) rose 2.25 points or 0.15% on Wednesday and closed above its closing price levels of the previous 5 years. Most price momentum oscillators did not make new highs, suggesting continuing momentum divergence. For example, popular momentum oscillators such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) remain below their 2011-2012 highs.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning high and rising optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Pinpoint accuracy is not guaranteed.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1427.07, 50-day SMA
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1395.33, 200-day SMA
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA)price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12. Support 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.96, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bullish on 1/22/13, when it rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bullish on 1/18/13 when it rose above its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC)has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year, since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
8.88% , KBH , KB HOME
5.36% , SWY , SAFEWAY
11.43% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
5.57% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
4.84% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
8.36% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.64% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
2.97% , NBR , NABORS
1.01% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
1.54% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.05% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
1.03% , IGV , Software, IGV
4.41% , IBM , IBM
5.50% , GOOG , Google
2.81% , TXT , TEXTRON
2.86% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
2.31% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
1.77% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
2.88% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
4.18% , CSX , CSX
4.50% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
1.61% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
1.27% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
1.23% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
1.04% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
2.18% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
2.20% , NSC , NORFOLK SOUTHERN
0.32% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.12% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.07% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.09% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
1.41% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.43% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-16.36% , COH , COACH
-0.49% , PID , Dividend International, PID
-5.53% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
-0.42% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-2.85% , PX , PRAXAIR
-2.04% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-2.03% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.51% , EXC , EXELON CORP
-1.63% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-2.93% , MOLX , MOLEX
-3.23% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
-0.78% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.95% , LLY , ELI LILLY
-0.93% , ALTR , ALTERA
-2.37% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.24% , FDL , Dividend Leaders, FDL
-0.34% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.07% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-1.57% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-2.17% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-1.68% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.98% , PWER , POWER ONE
-0.89% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.71% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.09% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-1.05% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.26% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-1.14% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.59% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.51% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.63% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.50% , FLR , FLUOR
-0.64% , KEY , KEYCORP
