* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In the U.S., traders and investors continue to focus on the quarterly corporate earnings reports. Germany’s stock market hit a five-year high and the Euro currency rallied Friday following an Ifo reading on German consumer confidence that hit a seven-month high. However, in the U.K., economic growth contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. In Asia, Japan’s stock index rallied on fresh talk from Japan finance officials who reiterated that their monetary policy would remain very accommodative. On Thursday, German Chancellor Merkel hinted she thought Japan is manipulating its currency. It can be strongly argued that several major countries are manipulating their currencies for their own economic benefit. There has been scattered talk of “currency wars” in the market place recently. If such discussion would become more widespread in the coming weeks or months it could produce significant fresh safe-haven demand for gold. With U.S. and some European stock indexes at multi-month or multi-year highs at present, the general investing public is more interested in the stock market than at any time in years. Combine that with the calmer world geopolitical climate at present, and safe-haven assets like gold are being overlooked by many investors. The annual World Economic Forum is taking place in Davos, Switzerland. Market watchers will be looking for any significant news coming out of the meeting. U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes new residential home sales.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,500.00 and then at 1,510.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,486.80 and then at this week’s low of 1,475.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early and are hovering near a three-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high of 2,743.00 and then at this week’s high of 2,768.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,707.75 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit another fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,800 and then at 13,750. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,900 and then at 13,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some fresh downside momentum today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 145 even and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 144 16/32 and then at 144 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears are regaining downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 132.06.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.24.0 and then at 131.22.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at the overnight high of 80.17. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.76
and then at 79.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and hovering near a four-month high. Bulls still have some upside momentum as a six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $96.92 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $95.75 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were slightly lower overnight. Grain futures traders will examine today’s weekly USDA export sales report. Dry weather in Argentina and the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt is still bullish for the grains.
