* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a generally quiet start to the new trading week Monday. However, later in the week the economic data action picks up. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting and interest rate announcement occurs on Wednesday, while the U.S. employment report is out Friday morning. The solid rally in the U.S. stock market, which sees major indexes at five-year highs, is attracting the interest of the general investing public, which is limiting investment interest in the safe-haven gold market. Asian stock markets also hit fresh multi-month highs overnight. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes durable goods orders, the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, pending home sales, and the Texas manufacturing survey.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,500.00 and then at 1,510.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 1,486.80 and then at last week’s low of 1,475.10. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early and are hovering near a three-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Friday’s high of 2,739.50 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of 2,707.75 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly firmer early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 13,780 and then at 13,750. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 13,830 and then at 13,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have recently gained fresh downside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 11/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 143 23/32 and then at the January low of 143 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.16.5 and then at 131.22.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.06.0 and then at the January low of 131.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today on short covering. Greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at Friday’s high of 80.17. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.83 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and hovering near a four-month high. Bulls still have some upside momentum as a seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at last week’s high of $96.92 and then at $97.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $95.75 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight. Grain futures traders will examine today’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Dry weather in Argentina and the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt is still bullish for the grains.