* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The two-day U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting ends Wednesday afternoon with its official policy statement to follow. Most market watchers expect the Fed to keep U.S. monetary policy unchanged–meaning continuing asset purchases and a very accommodative stance. However, traders will also be watching for any nuances that are included in the Fed statement, which could provide early clues on when the Fed will stop its asset purchases. Traders Wednesday morning will also closely scrutinize the U.S. fourth-quarter advance gross domestic product estimate. Analysts expect that figure to come in at up a paltry 1% on an annual basis. European stocks were mostly near unchanged Wednesday, save for a weaker Italian stock market. Euro zone consumer sentiment continues to creep higher, according to the latest figures released from the European Commission Wednesday. The Euro currency continues to rally and hit a fresh 13-month high against the U.S. dollar amid better investor sentiment toward the European Union and its handling of its sovereign
debt crisis. Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading today and did poke to another five-year high overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,515.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1,491.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,750.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,768.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,740.75 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,850 and then at Tuesday’s low of 13,820. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,950 and then at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and careened to a fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 143 even and then at the overnight high of 143 9/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 142 19/32 and then at 142 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.06.0 and then at this week’s high of 131.16.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.30.0 and then at 130.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today and hit a fresh five-week low overnight. Greenback bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.66 and then at 79.80. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.40 and then at 79.20. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit another fresh 4.5-month high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum as a seven-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $98.24 and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.32 and then at $97.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight. It’s another “risk on” day in the market place Wednesday as most commodity futures markets are trading firmer and the key outside markets are bullish–weaker U.S. dollar and firmer crude oil. Dry weather in Argentina and the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt is still bullish for the grains.