Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bullish again on 1/30/13, when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,501.96 ) fell 5.88 points or 0.39% on Wednesday. NYSE trading volume fell 5%.
SPX rose to a higher 5-year high by 9:50 a.m. ET, but that price was rejected by the market. Most of the loss occurred after the Fed statement at 2:15 p.m., even though the statement was about as generally expected.
Popular price momentum oscillators did not confirm recent new highs for the SPX, suggesting continuing momentum divergence. For example, daily and weekly RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9) have stubbornly remained below their 2011-2012 highs, despite the higher highs for the SPX. In addition, the momentum divergence is more striking for long-term time frames, as measured by the Coppock Curve.
The Art of Contrary Thinking calls for questioning high and rising optimism. Investor sentiment data indicated high degrees of optimism and bullish complacency in recent weeks, matching or exceeding extremes in September, 2012, when many stock price indexes hit peaks and reversed to the downside. Elevated levels of optimism are bearish because when the majority is extremely bullish, investors are already fully invested in the market. Once everyone who is going to buy has already bought, stocks are vulnerable to a downside shakeout. The pendulum of emotion tends to swing too far in one direction, but the market mood always reverts to the mean–eventually. Pinpoint accuracy is not guaranteed.
Our clients’ separately managed accounts made gains in 6 of the past 7 consecutive quarters; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1509.94, high of 1/30/13
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1496.33, low of 1/28/13
1489.46, low of 1/24/13
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/13
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.36, 50-day SMA
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1425.48, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Sept ’12 range
1424.41, Fibonacci 61.8% of Sept-Nov ’12 range
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.39, 200-day SMA
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1395.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of June-Sept 2012 range
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.62, Fibonacci 50.0% of June-Sept 2012 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1355.70, low of 7/2/2012
1346.11, Fibonacci 61.8% of June-Sept 2012 range
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1311.20, Fibonacci 78.6% of June-Sept 2012 range
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) turned systematically bearish again on 1/10/13 when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA and a 6-months long downtrend line. UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/31/12, and the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 10/2/12. Support 21.57, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.05, 22.30, 22.45, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral on 12/26/12, when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below its 200-day SMA consistently every day since 6/7/12, although the 50-200 spread has narrowed since 1/3/13. Support 34.38, 33.57, 31.00, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price turned systematically neutral on 11/27/12, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. Support: 158.39, 157.40, 154.83, 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price turned systematically bullish again on 1/30/13, when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. Support 29.73, 28.61, 27.97, 26.87, 26.13, 25.34, 25.00, 24.44, 22.52, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) turned systematically bullish again on 1/30/13, when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) has been consolidating losses in Triangle Consolidation chart pattern trading range between 38.99 and 51.41 for more than a year, since October 2011. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
14.96% , UIS , UNISYS
6.36% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
6.59% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
0.91% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
1.98% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.30% , DRI , DARDEN REST
4.77% , AMZN , Amazoncom Inc
1.20% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.57% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.52% , ZION , ZIONS
1.14% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.91% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.58% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
1.29% , KBH , KB HOME
0.97% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
0.56% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.70% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.75% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.43% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
1.21% , CMA , COMERICA
0.89% , ALL , ALLSTATE
0.87% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
0.60% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.68% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.60% , TJX , TJX
3.84% , MBI , MBIA
0.47% , BRCM , BROADCOM STK A
1.30% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
1.30% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
0.43% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.44% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
0.74% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
0.28% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.01% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-3.95% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-0.50% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-1.38% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-4.21% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.97% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-0.72% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.83% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
-0.36% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.99% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.80% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.08% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.40% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-0.87% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.81% , NCR , NCR
-1.48% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.74% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-5.71% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-2.18% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-0.86% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.69% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
-3.54% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.56% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-1.10% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.96% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-2.66% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-1.22% , ACE , ACE
-2.00% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.11% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-0.89% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.19% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.23% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-0.16% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.98% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.14% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.02% Japan Index, EWJ
0.91% Sweden Index, EWD
0.75% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.62% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.62% India PS, PIN
0.58% Singapore Index, EWS
0.57% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.56% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.50% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.50% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.44% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.38% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.38% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.29% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.29% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.28% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.21% Austria Index, EWO
0.15% SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.14% Belgium Index, EWK
0.12% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.11% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.10% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.10% Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.10% China 25 iS, FXI
0.08% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.06% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.05% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.04% Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.04% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.03% Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.03% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.03% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.04% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.05% Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.05% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.07% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.08% Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.12% Germany Index, EWG
-0.12% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.14% Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.16% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.17% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.18% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.18% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.19% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.21% Global 100, IOO
-0.21% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.22% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.26% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.27% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.28% Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.30% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.30% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.30% Dividend International, PID
-0.31% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.32% Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.32% LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.33% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.33% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.33% Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.33% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.34% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.34% LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.34% Canada Index, EWC
-0.35% LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.36% LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.37% France Index, EWQ
-0.37% LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.38% MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.38% Australia Index, EWA
-0.39% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.39% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.39% LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.40% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.40% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.40% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.40% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.41% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.41% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.42% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.43% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.46% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.46% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.47% Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.48% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.50% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.51% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.51% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.52% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% Spain Index, EWP
-0.53% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.61% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.63% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.65% MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.67% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.68% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.68% Energy Global, IXC
-0.69% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.72% MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.72% Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.74% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.78% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.82% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.85% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.86% Bond, Emerg Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.87% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.90% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.91% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.91% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.92% Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.92% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.93% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.95% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.96% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.00% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.10% SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.10% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.13% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.13% SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.17% Water Resources, PHO
-1.18% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.19% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.20% SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.20% SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.21% SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.23% Russia MV, RSX
-1.23% SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.38% Networking, IGN
-1.39% Italy Index, EWI
-1.48% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.50% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.80% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.21% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
