What is to be expected for the Week ahead from 25th Feb- 1st Mar?
Economic Calendar: US Fed Chairman Testifies on Tue and Wed, UK GDP, US Durable Goods Orders on Wed, GER
Unemployment , EU & GER CPI , GER Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices , US GDP on Thu , US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure on Fri are the most important data that is expected this Week.
Weekly Summary: USD strengthened against EUR,GBP, CHF,NZD , CAD and was flat against JPY,AUD and SGD. AUD was the strongest but gained only 20 pips and GBP was the weakest losing 354 pips .GBPAUD, GBPJPY and GBPSGD was the best crosses with a total move of 366/345/325 pips within a week.
EURUSDClosed @ 13190 which was well below theOpenand Res 2 against GBP , expect it to getstablenear the 15080-00 levels for some retracementand the Upside may be limitedto 15270-15330-65 levels in the near term. We believe there is some more weakness is expected once the 15130 level is cracked but may be limited to 15080-00 levelsfor pullback higher. USDJPY Closed @ 9340 and near the Open and near the Equilibrium level , looks like it is caught in a Range between 9480/9200 levels and we need to wait and see for further breakout. USDJPYwasFlat against AUD, SGD,
USDCHF Closed @ 9295 which was well above the Open and > Res 3 away from the Equilibrium level, CHF was R2 against AUD and Flat against NZD . We believe that other Crosses weakness may not permit USDCHF to march higher , we expect the Bulls to be in a Range or to struggle to crack the 9395/9435 levels . AUDUSD Closed @ 10320 which was near the Open and R2 against CHF, NZD, > R5 against CAD and was Flat against JPY . We believe that other Crosses are trading at Critical levels and that may cause the AUDUSD to have some pullback lower and AUDUSD may still be in a Range until the breakout. USDCAD Closed @ 10215 which was well above the Open and >R5 , CAD was R2 against NZD, >R5 against USD, AUD,
USDCHF Closed @ 9295 which was well above the Open and > Res 3 away from the Equilibrium level, CHF was R2 against AUD and Flat against NZD . We believe that other Crosses weakness may not permit USDCHF to march higher , we expect the Bulls to be in a Range or to struggle to crack the 9395/9435 levels. AUDUSD Closed @ 10320 which was near the Open and R2 against CHF, NZD, > R5 against CAD and was Flat against JPY . We believe that other Crosses are trading at Critical levels and that may cause the AUDUSD to have some pullback lower
and AUDUSD may still be in a Range until the breakout. USDCAD Closed @ 10215 which was well above the Open
and >R5 , CAD was R2 against NZD, >R5 against USD,AUD,
NZDUSDClosed @ 8380 which was well below theOpen but within a Range and R2 against CAD,AUD and Flat against CHF .We believe that NZD is well balanced against Other Crosses and NZDUSD is going to be in a Range until the Breakout and breaking the 8420-75 is going to be
difficult for the Bulls . USDSGDClosed @ 12370 which was near theOpen and near the Equilibrium level, SGDwas R1 against AUD and was Flat against USD, JPY.We believe that other Crosses Weakness are making the USDSGD strongand we expect the Range trading to continue until the breakout. Spot Gold Closed @ 15815 which waswell belowtheOpenand
Conclusion: EUR ,GBP,CAD more Weakness but maybe limited, JPY , AUD, SGD , NZD may be withina Rangeuntil the Breakout . We like to pick EUR , CAD and GBP for this week with expecting USD strength against all these three ,but Italy Elections outcome may have some effect on the EUR. We still choose EUR and trade on the Technical levels.
The Accuracy of the Long Term View may vary from the Weekly Projected Levels, so it is better to Pay attention to the Daily Report for more scrutinized view. Good Luck and Happy trading for the Week.
