* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight news, the International Monetary Fund reported that central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Azerbaijan added to their official gold stockpiles in January. Russia added nearly 400,000 ounces of gold to its reserves in January. In Europe, traders are awaiting the outcome of elections in Italy that began over the weekend, and which could be a harbinger of further progress, or lack thereof, on stabilizing the European Union sovereign debt crisis. Late Friday Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded Great Britain’s credit rating. That news further pressured the British pound. In China, the HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 in February from 52.3 in January. A reading above 50.0 indicates a growing economy. More key economic data from China is due out Friday. The market place is awaiting the Tuesday and Wednesday testimony on the U.S. economy to Congress from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Traders and investors will be looking for fresh clues on the direction of U.S. monetary policy in the coming weeks and months. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are higher early today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near a five-year high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,530.00 and then at 1,540.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,511.70 and then at 1,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,775.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,786.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,730.50 and then at Friday’s low of 2,714.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Dow futures: Prices are firmer today and hit a fresh five-year high overnight. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,000 and then at 13,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 14,100 and then at 14,150. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 144 7/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 143 22/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 131.31.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.24.0 and then at Friday’s low of 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today on profit taking after hitting a six-month high overnight. Prices are also scoring a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The greenback bulls had shown solid power recently but now may be near-term exhausted. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.50 and then at the overnight high of 81.74. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.12 and then at 81.00. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today and seeing short covering following the recent steep sell off. Prices Friday hit a six-week low. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $94.46 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.50 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were mixed overnight on some short covering and bargain hunting. The grain markets have been feeling pressure from the overall selling seen in the raw commodity market sector, with crude oil and gold leading the downside
price action. Also, there were bearish price and production forecasts for the grains coming out of the annual USDA Ag Outlook conference last week. My bias is that there is still some near-term price pressure to come in the grains, but I am not longer-term bearish.
