Stock Market Price Bounce–But On Lower Volume?

Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) turned systematically bearish on 4/19/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 4/19/13.

Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 4/19/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend (bearish).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/19/13, when whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/19/13, and remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 18 months on 4/19/13, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend.

On Friday, stocks partially recovered some of the recent damage but volume declined. It is a sign of weakness when prices rise on light volume and fall on heavy volume. My interpretation of the technical indicators suggests that the medium-term stock market uptrend evident from November into March may be over.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,555.25) finished up 0.88%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.25%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.07%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average jumped by 1.51%.

NYSE total volume fell 10% to a level 10% above its 200-day SMA.

Breadth was positive, with 2,888 Advances and 1,084 Declines. In addition, Advancing/Declining Volume was positive, with 2.6 Advancing Stock Volume to 1.3 Declining Stock Volume.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 4/17/13, when it whipsawed back above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.21, 22.15, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, again confirming its major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 1/11/13 when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 4/17/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 4/18/13 when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.31, 33.92, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 143.42 and 142.55. Resistance: 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73 and 19.44. Resistance: 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/19/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/19/13, thereby reconfirming a bearish major trend. JJC remains systematically bearish. JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
61.91% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
6.40% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
5.94% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
1.63% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
2.11% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
4.54% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
1.90% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.96% , BC , BRUNSWICK
3.04% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
5.20% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
3.66% , EL , Estee Lauder
3.21% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
4.26% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
4.68% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
4.43% , GOOG , Google
3.62% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.59% , PPL , PPL
2.14% , BA , BOEING
1.86% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
1.64% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
3.39% , MSFT , MICROSOFT
3.86% , KMX , CarMax
1.14% , BMS , BEMIS
3.65% , AMGN , AMGEN
5.33% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
1.80% , UIS , UNISYS
2.53% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
1.50% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
2.39% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
1.85% , K , KELLOGG
0.98% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
2.12% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.78% , CLX , CLOROX
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.13% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-3.94% , DELL , DELL
-8.28% , IBM , IBM
-4.06% , GE , GENERAL ELECTRIC
-3.76% , EMC , EMC
-3.79% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-2.18% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.33% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-2.42% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-3.13% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-0.43% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.22% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
-2.34% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-2.31% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-1.48% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
-2.29% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-1.95% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-2.23% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.34% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-1.04% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
-0.80% , PLL , PALL
-2.80% , APA , APACHE
-1.97% , XRX , XEROX
-1.33% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.10% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.83% , ETR , ENTERGY
-0.44% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-0.58% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-0.22% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.36% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.52% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.50% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-0.24% , EFX , EQUIFAX
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.60% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.21% , China 25 iS, FXI
2.89% , Taiwan Index, EWT
2.43% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.26% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.00% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.91% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.90% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.89% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.67% , Italy Index, EWI
1.66% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.65% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.56% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.56% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.56% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.55% , India PS, PIN
1.54% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.52% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.50% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.50% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.45% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.45% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.44% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.43% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.41% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.40% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.39% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.37% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.35% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.35% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.34% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.33% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.30% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.28% , France Index, EWQ
1.26% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.21% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.20% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.18% , Spain Index, EWP
1.18% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.17% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.16% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.15% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.15% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.15% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.15% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.14% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.11% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.11% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.08% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.07% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.07% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.05% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.05% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.05% , Austria Index, EWO
1.05% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.04% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.04% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.02% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.02% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.01% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.01% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.99% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.97% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.97% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.96% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.96% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.96% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.95% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.93% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.92% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.91% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.89% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.88% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.88% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.87% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.87% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.86% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.86% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.84% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.82% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.81% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.80% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.80% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.75% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.75% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.72% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.71% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.70% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.69% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.66% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.66% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.65% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.60% , Canada Index, EWC
0.60% , Dividend International, PID
0.60% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.58% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.54% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.52% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.50% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.50% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.46% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.45% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.44% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.44% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.41% , Global 100, IOO
0.39% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.37% , Water Resources, PHO
0.35% , Russia MV, RSX
0.26% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.24% , Energy Global, IXC
0.15% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.15% , Networking, IGN
0.14% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.13% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.13% , Germany Index, EWG
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.08% , Australia Index, EWA
0.07% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.01% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.05% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.06% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.07% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.12% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.13% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.16% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.20% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.21% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.22% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.23% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.31% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.43% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.61% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.77% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.79% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1597.35, intraday high of 4/11/2013
1576.09, intraday high of 10/11/2007

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1543.90, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1452.50, 200-day SMA