What the heck do we make of the market behavior on Friday and Monday? All signs pointed to a continued correction. Earnings have come in for some bellwethers weaker than expected. China has lost some of its recent economic luster, US housing data weakened, US manufacturing slowed, the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth, and the breathless media has, well, done what the breathless media does so well – push the negative.. So what gives? Why did the market rise two days in a row and then open strongly in the green today?
- It’s make-or-break time for the first-quarter earnings season, and it comes just as the stock market is showing signs of strain.
I don’t know the answer because the above reflects the prevailing attitude in the world of market punditry. It would seem the market sees things one way and the spotlighted analysts another. But here and there, one or two those who once were and are not now get a chance to say their piece.
- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, has been a long-time bear on the U.S. economy. But now he has some good news for the U.S. labor market and the U.S. worker. “Labor demand is actually on the rise and job openings on the part of the business sector is up more than 10% in the past year,” Rosenberg tells The Daily Ticker. “Even though hiring is anemic, the level of firings…is at an all-time low.”
- “For those that have the skills and are employed, things are getting better,” says Rosenberg. Average weekly pay and hours are rising, which is good news for workers paying down debt or making purchases or both.
But despite Rosenberg’s tepid conversion on the US labor problem, I still feel something is amiss with the market. True, I believe it wants to go up over the longer term, but I have a feeling that underneath the rising water is a strong current pulling down. In a weird way, I feel the market should be going down, as there is nothing but less-than-good-economic news out there and it still has some room for more consolidation.
You know what else is weird. The above, what I just wrote is weird. It must be lack of sleep or maybe old age is setting in and my brain is atrophying. Me, a long-time mega bull and I am suggesting the market should be going down when it going up? Now that does not make sense.
Okay, so if it is not lack of sleep or aging that is making me write crazy things, it must be that the market knows something the pundits and analysts do not know and that something must be better than the fundamental news coming out these days.
Hmmm ….The market is a forward-looking creature, right? The commonly accepted timeframe for the market looking down the road is 6-9 months, right? Accepting both of these statement as true suggests the market sees the final quarter of 2013 as something to bet on, a place in future time in which their money will work to the positive.
Yes, it could be the above or it could be I am all wrong about my feeling that the market should be going down. Then again, it could mean that what I always say is true – the market ultimately cares about one thing more than any other and that is corporate earnings.
- NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks opened higher on Tuesday, putting equities on track for a third straight day of gains, as strong earnings improved sentiment
Well, even I have not convinced myself that the market should be going down when it is going up, but I do feel a little bit better knowing that because it is going up, my money is working to the positive.
I guess I will just have to live with reality, now won’t I?
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
