* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Congress on Wednesday. The Fed’s FOMC minutes are also due out Wednesday afternoon. Traders and investors will closely scrutinize Bernanke’s remarks and the FOMC minutes for any clues on the U.S. central bank’s potential course of monetary policy in the coming weeks and months. There is a growing belief in the market place that the Fed is aiming to wind down its quantitative easing program (QE3) sooner rather than later. The term presently bandied about is “tapering” of the Fed’s massive monthly bond-buying program. However, there is no clear consensus among market and Fed watchers regarding what the Fed will do with its monetary policy. On Thursday, there will be key manufacturing data out of China released, which will also garner close market attention. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is again light and includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and hovering near Monday’s all-time high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s record high of 1,670.80 and then at 1,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,650.00 and then at 1,632.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and hovering just below Monday’s 12-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 3,032.00 and then at 3,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,000.00 and then at 2,982.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering near Monday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s record high of 15,365 and then at 15,400. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 15,300 and then at 15,260. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 even and then at Monday’s high of 144 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 143 16/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.22.5 and then at last week’s low of 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading and hovering near last week’s 9.5-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 84.275 and then at last week’s high of 84.515. Shorter-term support is seen at 84.000 and then at the overnight low of 83.865. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage but trading remains choppy. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.00 and then at the May high of $97.38. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $96.00 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly lower in overnight trading. Monday’s weekly USDA crop progress report showed big progress made planting the U.S. corn crop last week, and that’s bearish for corn. Buying interest in the grains has also been limited recently by the stronger U.S. dollar index. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is still a main focus for grain traders. Showers and thunderstorms recently, and more in the forecast, are delaying seeding of corn and soybeans. However, traders reckon the bearish effect of soil moisture levels being recharged after last year’s major drought outweigh the bullish planting delays. Soybean bulls have recently gained good upside near-term technical momentum, mainly due to a tight supply of U.S. soybeans at present. Wheat trading remains choppy and sideways, but with the bears holding the solid advantage.