Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/20/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
Energy (XLE) Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish).
U.S. stock prices rose to higher highs shortly after noon on Monday but surrendered gains to close mixed in slower trading. Spinning Top Candlesticks suggest indecision, and a standoff between bullish and bearish forces. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,666.29) finished down 0.07%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.12%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.58%. Breadth was positive, with 2,352 Advances and 1,662 Declines, and with 2,185 million shares Advancing Stock Volume compared to 1,354 million Declining Stock Volume.
NYSE total volume fell 5%, possibly suggesting diminishing buying power.
Some, but not all, daily stock market price momentum oscillators continue to diverge bearishly, as they have for many weeks and months already, even as most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Some oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 72.51 on 5/17/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a much higher high. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs and the number of daily net new highs on the NYSE failed to rise to higher highs. Other momentum oscillators recently confirmed higher price highs, however, so the evidence appears mixed at this time. Momentum oscillator divergences are important because they are leading indicators of price.
There has been no debate at all about the stock market trend from 11/16/12 to 5/17/13. Recognizing whatever has been happening in the recent past does not require any analysis. Much more difficult is recognizing when a trend is overextended and due for a significant correction. That would have to be based on analysis of normal market behavior observed over many years past. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, the bullish majority of investors have been questioning whether past normal standards of market behavior apply. Massive money printing out of thin air can’t continue forever, however, and the markets may be vulnerable once investors begin to anticipate the end of inflationary monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 5/17/13. EFA/SPY fell below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The two SMAs are converging, and a bearish crossover may be possible in days ahead, if EFA continues to lag the SPY.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18 months on 5/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. OEF/SPY turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it fell back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/20/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/20/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its major uptrend. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/20/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.84, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/15/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.33% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
4.11% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
3.94% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
6.09% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
3.07% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
2.23% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
0.30% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
4.07% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.71% , A , AGILENT TECH
2.75% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.91% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.80% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.50% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.50% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
0.23% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
3.33% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.42% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.53% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
2.65% , FLR , FLUOR
1.23% , HAR , Harman International
0.86% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.02% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
1.74% , AA , ALCOA
0.81% , HSP , HOSPIRA
2.39% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.27% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.71% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
0.97% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.13% , ZION , ZIONS
0.61% , FCX , FREEPRT MCMORAN STK B
0.70% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.75% , AVP , AVON
0.15% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.48% , TLAB , TELLABS
-2.71% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-2.55% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-0.76% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-4.26% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-3.14% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-3.88% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-2.44% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
-1.71% , KMX , CarMax
-1.76% , CHD , Church & Dwight
-1.94% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.27% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.38% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-3.27% , AMGN , AMGEN
-2.63% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-1.21% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
-0.19% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.11% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-1.34% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.85% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-2.10% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-1.46% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.26% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.74% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.07% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.61% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.23% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
-0.06% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.14% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.33% , CMA , COMERICA
-0.54% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-0.10% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.12% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.25% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.11% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
4.07% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.94% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
3.09% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.70% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.48% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.44% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.42% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.41% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.28% , Australia Index, EWA
1.21% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.20% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.19% , Russia MV, RSX
1.11% , Canada Index, EWC
1.04% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.04% , Italy Index, EWI
0.97% , Energy Global, IXC
0.91% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.86% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.75% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.73% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.73% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.70% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.67% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.66% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.65% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.64% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.58% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.57% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.56% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.56% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.55% , Austria Index, EWO
0.54% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.53% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.50% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.48% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.48% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.45% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.43% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.41% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.39% , Water Resources, PHO
0.38% , Germany Index, EWG
0.37% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.36% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.36% , France Index, EWQ
0.35% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.30% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.30% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.30% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.29% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.28% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.27% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.25% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.25% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.25% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.24% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.23% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.23% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.23% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.23% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.22% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.21% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.20% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.20% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.20% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.19% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.16% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.15% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.15% , Global 100, IOO
0.15% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.14% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.13% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.12% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.12% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.11% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.10% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.10% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.10% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.09% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.08% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.07% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.06% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.05% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.03% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.02% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.02% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.00% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.01% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.01% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.01% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.03% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.03% , Dividend International, PID
-0.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.04% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.05% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.06% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.07% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.07% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.07% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.07% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.10% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.12% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.12% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.13% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.14% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.14% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.15% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.15% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.16% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.19% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.20% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.25% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.26% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.27% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.27% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.30% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.31% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.34% , Networking, IGN
-0.38% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.50% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.61% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.67% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.67% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.69% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.86% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.89% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.95% , India PS, PIN
-1.03% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.22% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.34% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.46% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.94% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1672.84, intraday high of 5/20/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1584.21, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1479.41, 200-day SMA
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
