Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral).
Technology (XLK) Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/21/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.
U.S. stock prices rose to higher highs at 2:19 p.m. ET but surrendered most of their gains to close only modestly higher in moderately more active trading on Tuesday. As on Monday, Spinning Top Candlesticks suggest indecision, and a standoff between bullish and bearish forces. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,669.16) finished up 0.17%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.34%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.12%. Breadth was positive, with 2,225 Advances and 1,780 Declines, and with 1,914 million shares Advancing Stock Volume compared to 1,771 million Declining Stock Volume.
NYSE total volume rose 6% to a level 6% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.
Some, but not all, daily stock market price momentum oscillators continue to diverge bearishly, as they have for many weeks and months already, even as most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Some oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 72.51 on 5/21/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a much higher high. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs and the number of daily net new highs on the NYSE failed to rise to higher highs. Other momentum oscillators recently confirmed higher price highs, however, so the evidence appears mixed at this time. Momentum oscillator divergences are important because they are leading indicators of price.
There has been no debate at all about the stock market trend from 11/16/12 to 5/17/13. Recognizing whatever has been happening in the recent past does not require any analysis. Much more difficult is recognizing when a trend is overextended and due for a significant correction. That would have to be based on analysis of normal market behavior observed over many years past. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, the bullish majority of investors have been questioning whether past normal standards of market behavior apply. Massive money printing out of thin air can’t continue forever, however, and the markets may be vulnerable once investors begin to anticipate the end of inflationary monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/21/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 5/17/13. EFA/SPY fell below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The two SMAs are converging, and a bearish crossover may be possible in days ahead, if EFA continues to lag the SPY, as it has since 12/28/2012.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18 months on 5/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. OEF/SPY turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it fell back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/20/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/21/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its major uptrend. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/20/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.84, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/15/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.93% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
4.69% , MRK , MERCK & CO
4.59% , AZO , AUTOZONE
2.89% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
2.87% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
2.17% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
2.54% , HD , HOME DEPOT
1.34% , XLNX , XILINX
0.86% , TGT , TARGET
2.06% , NUE , NUCOR
1.40% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
2.25% , KSS , KOHLS
1.27% , HAR , Harman International
0.36% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
3.12% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.03% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.54% , AES , AES
1.02% , CI , CIGNA
0.50% , BLL , BALL
1.65% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
0.89% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
0.68% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
1.00% , LH , LAB CRP OF AMER
1.29% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
1.00% , TE , TECO ENERGY
1.22% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.21% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
0.95% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.69% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
0.83% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
0.75% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.11% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
3.18% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.28% , CCL , CARNIVAL STK A
-4.36% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.93% , INTU , INTUIT
-5.07% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.56% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-2.74% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-0.39% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.63% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.01% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.37% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-1.58% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.57% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.22% , IGV , Software, IGV
-3.16% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.45% , ALL , ALLSTATE
-1.51% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.74% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.79% , EBAY , EBAY
-1.00% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.40% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.22% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-2.42% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.75% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.33% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-0.93% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.81% , MAS , MASCO
-0.31% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-1.17% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.66% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.75% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-1.27% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-1.06% , CTL , CENTURYTEL
-0.57% , OMC , OMNICOM
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.21% , Russia MV, RSX
1.09% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.02% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.01% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.98% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.79% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.71% , France Index, EWQ
0.67% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.63% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.62% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.57% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.57% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.51% , Dividend International, PID
0.47% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.45% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.43% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.41% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.40% , Global 100, IOO
0.39% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.38% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.34% , Germany Index, EWG
0.34% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.33% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.33% , Austria Index, EWO
0.33% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.31% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.30% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.28% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.28% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.27% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.26% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.26% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.26% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.25% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.25% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.24% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.24% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.24% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.23% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.23% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.23% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.22% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.22% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.21% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.21% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.20% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.20% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.20% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.20% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.19% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.19% , Energy Global, IXC
0.19% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.19% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.19% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.18% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.18% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.17% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.16% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.16% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.15% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.15% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.15% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.15% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.14% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.14% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.14% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.13% , Water Resources, PHO
0.13% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.12% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.12% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.11% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.11% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% , Canada Index, EWC
0.10% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.10% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.09% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.08% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.08% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.07% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.07% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.06% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.02% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.01% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.00% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.00% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.03% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.07% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.07% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.07% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.08% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.09% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.09% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.10% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.11% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.12% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.13% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.14% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.16% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.16% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.20% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.21% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.22% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.22% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.23% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.30% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.31% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.33% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.37% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.37% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.39% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.40% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.44% , Networking, IGN
-0.55% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.56% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.57% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.65% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.68% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.75% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.84% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.96% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.01% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.04% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.17% , India PS, PIN
-1.41% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.57% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.66% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.96% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1674.93, intraday high of 5/21/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1586.46, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1480.88, 200-day SMA
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
