Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 5/29/13 when price fell below both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/29/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA), iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF), and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratios all fell below previous lows, thereby reconfirming preexisting major downtrends.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/29/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).
Materials (XLB) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/29/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish).
U.S. stocks opened lower, bottomed at 11:09 a.m. ET, partly recovered, then chopped up and down into a close that was only slightly below the open.
The Bullish Majority hopes that the stock market will remain bullishly resilient because bullish momentum feeds on itself and the “Buy-the-Dip” mentality won’t quit until the Fed quits its “highly accommodative monetary policy”, which they hope will be many, many months off into the future. (Market analysis is really not that simple, however. Too many other variables can come into play.)
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,648.36) finished down 0.70%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.69%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.03%. Breadth was negative, with 885 Advances and 3,182 Declines, and with 1,492 million shares Advancing Stock Volume compared to 2,409 million Declining Stock Volume.
NYSE total volume rose 4% to a level 11% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price decline confirms that price decline, while falling volume on a decline rise may indicate diminishing selling pressure behind that decline.
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. Since 5/17/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to higher highs without confirmation by the Transportation Average.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and that Relative Strength downtrend may resume.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/29/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/29/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 5/29/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new price high intraday on 5/22/13, but that high was rejected by the market.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/22/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Absolute price rose to a new price high intraday on 5/22/13, but that high was rejected by the market.
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its major uptrend. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.67, 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/20/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 5/29/13 when price fell below both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Longer term, USO has been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.76, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.59, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/29/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/23/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.18% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
3.60% , CIEN.O , CIENA
3.81% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
2.48% , UIS , UNISYS
0.98% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2.31% , APA , APACHE
1.60% , MET , METLIFE
2.05% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
0.87% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.99% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
1.76% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
0.70% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
0.79% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.82% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
1.24% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.39% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.41% , AON , AON
1.08% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
2.29% , F , FORD MOTOR
0.70% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.94% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.71% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.41% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.35% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.73% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
0.22% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.01% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.18% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.34% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
0.31% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
0.04% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
1.16% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.95% , C , CITIGROUP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.55% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-3.10% , BMS , BEMIS
-5.78% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-0.49% , IGV , Software, IGV
-2.09% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.97% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.52% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.84% , GPS , GAP
-3.73% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-3.11% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
-1.43% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-2.04% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.46% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-2.07% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-4.38% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-2.46% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-2.69% , PCG , PG&E
-2.81% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-3.33% , CL , COLGATE
-2.46% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
-2.19% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
-1.41% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-4.55% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-2.45% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-3.45% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-2.52% , SYY , SYSCO
-2.59% , CLX , CLOROX
-0.59% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.57% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.34% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
-0.88% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.78% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-1.94% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.12% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.00% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.84% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.72% , Spain Index, EWP
0.70% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.69% , Networking, IGN
0.47% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.41% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.39% , Canada Index, EWC
0.38% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.33% , Austria Index, EWO
0.30% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.26% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.22% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.17% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.14% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.12% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.01% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.01% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.00% , Italy Index, EWI
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.04% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.07% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.10% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.12% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.12% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.14% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.20% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.21% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.21% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.22% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.22% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.24% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.25% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.26% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.27% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.29% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.31% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.32% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.32% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.36% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.39% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.40% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.40% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.40% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.42% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.43% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.43% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.43% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.47% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.47% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.49% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.54% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.56% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.56% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.57% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.57% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.59% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.59% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.59% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.61% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.63% , Dividend International, PID
-0.64% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.65% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.65% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.66% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.67% , France Index, EWQ
-0.67% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.67% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.68% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.68% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.68% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.68% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.69% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.71% , Global 100, IOO
-0.71% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.71% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.73% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.73% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.75% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.77% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.81% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.83% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.84% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.84% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.85% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.85% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.86% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.87% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.87% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.88% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.93% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.93% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.95% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.96% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.96% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.97% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.97% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.97% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.97% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.98% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.98% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.99% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.00% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.03% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.03% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.07% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.08% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.11% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.14% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.14% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.19% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.20% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.27% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.31% , India PS, PIN
-1.33% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.35% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.39% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.43% , Singapore Index, EWS
-1.44% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.49% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.53% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.56% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.57% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.61% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.68% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.88% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.92% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.95% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.98% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-2.00% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-2.03% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-2.04% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.07% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-2.09% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.12% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-2.14% , South Africa Index, EZA
-2.29% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.40% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-3.12% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.52% , Brazil Index, EWZ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1635.53, intraday low of 5/23/2013
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1596.08, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1487.43, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
