Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/19/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/19/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) and Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) both fell below their lows of the previous 4 years on 6/19/13, again reconfirming preexisting major downtrends.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish).

U.S. stocks were little changed before the Fed announcement at 2:00 p.m. but fell hard after. The short-term, minor trend looks like it turned bearish.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,628.93) finished down 1.39%.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE also fell hard and fell below its 50-day SMA.

NYSE Volume rose 16% from Tuesday’s level and was 9% above its own 200-day SMA. Cumulative Up-Down Volume fell below its 50-day SMA.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. On 5/28/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/17/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.”

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/19/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/12/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/19/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 7-month low on 6/12/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 9 months on 6/11/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/12/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been systematically neutral since it broke down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/17/13, confirming its preexisting downside correction. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13, although the gap between the two has been closing in recent days. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/19/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51, 127.80, 123.56, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/19/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 19.44. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) is systematically bearish. Price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.59% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
5.58% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
2.02% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.06% , NVDA , NVIDIA
3.31% , UIS , UNISYS
2.68% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.65% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
2.53% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.46% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.07% , FDX , FEDEX
1.06% , VFC , VF
2.70% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.67% , HUM , HUMANA
1.07% , ADSK , AUTODESK
1.60% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.12% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.44% , SNV , SYNOVUS
1.52% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.32% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
0.43% , PX , PRAXAIR
0.42% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.01% , GOOG , Google
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.69% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-4.66% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-2.71% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-6.00% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-3.75% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.08% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-4.37% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-3.29% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
-2.52% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-3.20% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-1.99% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.77% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-3.93% , LM , LEGG MASON
-3.33% , AVP , AVON
-3.00% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-2.68% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-1.99% , XLP , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-3.43% , RAI , Reynolds American
-1.83% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-2.86% , A , AGILENT TECH
-3.13% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.18% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.08% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-2.83% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-2.72% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-3.61% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-2.14% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-1.59% , XLV , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-3.19% , VWO , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.09% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.37% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.17% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-1.87% , EFA , EAFE Index, EFA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.32% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
1.10% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.15% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.12% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.41% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.51% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.53% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.67% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.76% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.77% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.78% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.85% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.85% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.86% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.88% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.91% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.92% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.92% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.97% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.98% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.00% , Networking, IGN
-1.03% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.05% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.08% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.11% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-1.14% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.16% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.16% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.17% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.17% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.18% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.18% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.22% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.22% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.23% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-1.23% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.24% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.25% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-1.25% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.26% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-1.28% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.30% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-1.31% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.31% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.31% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.33% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-1.33% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-1.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-1.33% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-1.33% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.34% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.35% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.36% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.36% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.36% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.37% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.37% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.38% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.38% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.38% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-1.38% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.40% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-1.41% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.41% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.41% , Energy Global, IXC
-1.42% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-1.42% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.43% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-1.44% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.44% , Canada Index, EWC
-1.46% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.46% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-1.47% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.49% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.49% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-1.50% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.52% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.53% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.53% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-1.53% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.53% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.59% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.65% , Global 100, IOO
-1.66% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.67% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.68% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.69% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.70% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-1.70% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.70% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.78% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.78% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.81% , Dividend International, PID
-1.84% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-1.87% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-1.90% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.91% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.98% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.99% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.99% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.02% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-2.05% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-2.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.09% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.09% , European VIPERs, VGK
-2.11% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-2.13% , Singapore Index, EWS
-2.20% , France Index, EWQ
-2.20% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.23% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-2.24% , Germany Index, EWG
-2.24% , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.28% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.29% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-2.32% , Water Resources, PHO
-2.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.50% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-2.52% , Australia Index, EWA
-2.56% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.57% , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.71% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.75% , China 25 iS, FXI
-2.77% , Spain Index, EWP
-2.83% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.89% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.98% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.00% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-3.07% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-3.08% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-3.13% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.17% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-3.19% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.20% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-3.20% , India PS, PIN
-3.61% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.67% , Russia MV, RSX
-3.79% , Mexico Index, EWW
-4.11% , South Africa Index, EZA
-4.61% , Indonesia MV, IDX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013
1654.19, intraday high of 6/18/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1618.24, 50-day SMA
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1504.19, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009