As I look around, I see a five-year metamorphosis moving past the cocoon stage. Although not quite ready to rip through the fine containing threads, the global economy is forming up its wings inside the cocoon, preparing for the day when it will push through its silky bonds and flutter away.
Wow! My airiness this morning amazes even me. In my quite light opening above, I might have stepped one-step too far into breeziness, but the words do make my point. Aside from Europe’s still struggling economies (look to Q4 2013 or Q1 2014 for metamorphosis to begin) it appears the other big three are poised to take off. Japan, China, and the US all are turning or have turned corners in their independent but integral economic issues, at least according to recent economic data and a recent comprehensive global survey from Nielsen.
- Global consumer confidence rose in the second quarter with more optimistic perceptions about jobs, personal finances and spending intentions in the United States, China and Japan, a survey shows.
- “The European consumer is in a holding pattern, and in fact, at Nielsen we see a distinct set of tiers with German consumers being the most confident, followed by consumers in the UK, France, and then Italy and Greece.
- Consumer morale improved in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, reflecting increasing employment opportunities, higher home prices and a rising stock market.
It is a good sign that global consumers, especially in the US, are feeling good; in fact, it is an excellent sign. Equally important, though, is the fact that the folks who operate the purse strings in the biggest business machine in the history of the world are feeling better as well.
- U.S. financial officers gave the economy its highest score in five years and were significantly more confident about economic growth in 2013 in the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch CFO Outlook survey. Executives who participated in the 2013 CFO Outlook Mid-Year Update gave the U.S. economy an average score of 58 out of 100, up from 49 in the previous survey conducted in late 2012. CFOs gave the global economy a score of 51, up from 45.
Okay, so everyone is feeling better, but the perception that conditions on the ground are not good still persists. Well, then, let’s look at conditions in the air. Let’s look at United Tech, a conglomerate that produces elevators, air conditioners, and, oh jet engine parts for commercial airlines.
- The rise in miles flown by airlines around the world has caused demand for spare parts to grow, boosting United Tech’s profit. The conglomerate said orders for large commercial engine parts rose 65 percent in the second quarter.
So, more people are flying, which means, well, you can see the picture, right?
- “The recovery in the global economy is creating nice opportunities for us to deliver,” United Tech’s Chief Executive Officer Louis Chenevert told Reuters. “Things are improving.”
Yet, the near-term future for the US economy is bleak, you might say. What about those nasty sequester cuts in the US that were supposed to kill the US economy in the second quarter?
- Lockheed Martin Corp on Tuesday beat analysts’ forecasts with a 10 percent rise in second-quarter earnings and lifted its full-year profit forecast, saying Pentagon budget cuts had not hurt as much as expected.
I feel so good I could do this all day. Okay, how about I give just one more data point that supports my buoyancy this fine day?
- Higher auto sales helped drive Canadian retail sales 1.9 percent higher in May from April, the biggest monthly jump for more than three years.
In the end, all of my cheeriness only means that I and few hundred-million consumers around the world feel good. What matters more is how does any of this light-heartedness translate into market opportunity? In economic and market conditions such as what we have now, opportunity abounds, for sure, but here is one potential opportunity to consider. Check out the 6-month chart on this stock.
- Cisco Systems said it will buy software maker Sourcefire for about $2.7 billion to increase its network security services.
Hey! Smile, will ya. I promise it will feel good, and it just might let a little light seep into the darkness inside the cocoon. You know, the one that is just about to burst open.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
