Thursday, July 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In scanning my price screen this morning I see mostly red numbers (lower prices), which suggests a “risk-off” day in the market place Thursday—even though there were no major developments on the world economic or geopolitical front overnight. European and North American traders have likely entered the summertime doldrums, in which trading enthusiasm wanes as many traders and investors gear up for their annual family vacations. In overnight news, the German Ifo business confidence index rose for the third month in a row during July. The reading was 106.2 in July from 105.9 in June. Still, the European stock markets were mostly weaker due to a batch of disappointing corporate earnings reports just released. Asian stock markets were also mostly weaker Thursday. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on some mild profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,684.20 and then at this week’s high of 1,695.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,672.00 and then at 1,666.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on profit taking. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,053.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,060.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,035.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,023.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,500 and then at the record high of 15,545. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,400 and then at 15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 12/32 and then at 135 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 25/32 and then at this week’s low of 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.16.0 and then at 126.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 126.03.5 and then at 126.00.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 82.500 and then at this week’s high of 82.740. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.145 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower again early today, on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $105.44 and then at $106.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.42 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Markets were near steady to lower in overnight trading. The August soybean futures contract was sharply lower. Corn and wheat futures remain in deep bear markets, while new-crop soybean bulls and bears struggle for near-term control. The U.S. Corn Belt has received beneficial rains the past few days, and temperatures have cooled down significantly. That’s bearish. Cash corn and soybean basis levels in the central U.S. have collapsed, which adds to the bearish tone in the futures markets. The one bright spot in the grain markets at present is decent world demand for U.S. grains. Traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
