Health Care stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
On Thursday, U.S. stock market price indexes started the day higher but quickly reversed to the downside. Stocks continued to erode moderately to their lows of the day at 2:03 p.m. Prices firmed slightly in the late afternoon.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,722.34, down 0.18%) closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, but above its widely-watched 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 10% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both declined moderately on Thursday, breaking a 4-day willing streak. Both remain systematically bullish above 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
Short-term, day-to-day price momentum looks “overbought” after rising for 15 trading days, but short-term indicators can stay “overbought” or even get more “overbought”. For the medium term and long term, SPX rose above all previous highs on Wednesday, 9/18/13, suggesting bullish price momentum in all time frames.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA, but Relative Strength has turned lower since then. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 5-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) is systematically neutral. MDY /SPY whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/11/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Price is currently slightly above its 50-day SMA, which is neutral, but price could easily slip back below its 50-day SMA, which would make it systematically bearish again., DBA price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Support 36.99, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.37% , A , AGILENT TECH
4.64% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
5.15% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
2.88% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
1.69% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.92% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.84% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
2.14% , VFC , VF
1.67% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
2.04% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
2.59% , AGN , ALLERGAN
1.75% , PLL , PALL
2.58% , LOW , LOWES
1.51% , ETN , EATON
2.60% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
1.76% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.87% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
1.28% , SVU , SUPERVALU
1.64% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
0.59% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
1.51% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
1.15% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
0.06% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
1.37% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
2.53% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.25% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.15% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
0.30% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
2.05% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
2.20% , FLR , FLUOR
0.98% , SNA , SNAP ON
1.54% , ALL , ALLSTATE
1.06% , ACE , ACE
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.89% , KEY , KEYCORP
-4.16% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-3.96% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-3.67% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
-1.82% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-2.90% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.68% , SYY , SYSCO
-2.75% , ZION , ZIONS
-3.21% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-0.50% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-3.01% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-2.78% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-2.00% , CMA , COMERICA
-1.62% , SEE , SEALED AIR
-0.46% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.45% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.60% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-3.19% , MET , METLIFE
-0.49% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.53% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.50% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.51% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-1.02% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-0.53% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.40% , NE , NOBLE
-0.20% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-2.68% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-2.40% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.65% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.24% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-0.47% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.06% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-0.38% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.37% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.08% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.92% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.68% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.53% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.49% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.47% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.34% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.28% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.26% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.25% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.24% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.21% , Water Resources, PHO
0.15% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.13% , Networking, IGN
0.11% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.11% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.09% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.08% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.01% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.01% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.03% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.03% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.03% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.06% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.09% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.09% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.09% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.09% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.09% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.10% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.12% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.13% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.13% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.14% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.15% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.15% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.16% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.17% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.17% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.17% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.18% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.19% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.19% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.20% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.20% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.21% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.23% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.23% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.23% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.24% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.24% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.24% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.24% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.24% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.25% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.27% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.27% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.29% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.29% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.29% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.29% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.30% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.30% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.30% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.30% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.31% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.32% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.33% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.33% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.34% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.35% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.35% , Global 100, IOO
-0.36% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.37% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.38% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.39% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.39% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.39% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.39% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.41% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.41% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.42% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.43% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.45% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.46% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.46% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.46% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.46% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.47% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.47% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.47% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.47% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.48% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.48% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.48% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.49% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.49% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.49% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.49% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.50% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.51% , France Index, EWQ
-0.52% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.53% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.53% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.54% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.55% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.55% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.57% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.59% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.62% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.63% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.64% , India PS, PIN
-0.67% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.67% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.69% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.72% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.73% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.77% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.77% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.83% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.86% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.86% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.90% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.02% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.14% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.18% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.23% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.33% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.55% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.62% , South Africa Index, EZA
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1691.70, low of 9/16/2013
1689.97, high of 9/12/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1678.02, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1581.02, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
