I feel like I need a vacation. It’s been awhile since I put my sandy bare feet up, pulled down my shades, and loosely waved a hanging hand for the hombre in the white shirt to bring me a margarita. Yep, I feel like a need a vacation.
Oh, BTW, my morning workout routine is working. My body is tired, but it feels stronger. No matter that I am sick of Jillian, my DVD workout guru; I will stick to it until I get through the whole series. Now that I think about it, my workouts could be the reason I need a vacation.
Actually, truth be known, the market is the reason I need a vacation. It is staring to get boring. I feel like it is a job, which it is, so, like most folks who have jobs, I need a vacation from it. Day in and day out, month over month, year after year, the same issues drive the market and the market behaves the same way relating to those issues. This does not mean I am any better at accurately predicting short-term movement, but I can tell you from season to season, year to year, at least for the last four, what the market will do.
For example, now that the irrational euphoria from the non-QE tapering has worn off, the market will mini-panic about the political theatrics in the US (an annual event). This will result in another market dip, which will open the door for the buyers to come in to rebuild the market before the year ends.
While that it is happening, the breathless media will tell us over and over again, what it will mean if the government shuts down. As well, the breathless media will parade out all the hilltop screamers and talking heads to make sure the airwaves and print media are abuzz with sensational talk.
Yep. I need a vacation. Alas, though, it will be a while before I get one. In three weeks, I am getting married, which means I have a whole bunch of stuff to get done here real quick. I feel my own mini-panic about my to-do list. So, for about three weeks, I might dip a little, but when the “crisis” fades, I will buy in with commitment and joy because my long-term future looks pretty darn bright.
I guess the above is how I see the market as well. It is hard to see what could come down the line now that could derail the slow and steady global economic recovery, other than a geo-political shock.
- In the U.S., we still have pretty decent momentum for not only housing and autos but increasingly there’s an argument that corporate cap ex [capital expenditures] is going to start moving up. There should be a good new story in the economy next year, as long as we don’t have negative shocks.
So, if no world crisis comes, the market will likely stay the course of upward movement with fits and starts, here and there. This will be the case until employment in the US becomes more steady.
Payrolls increased in 29 U.S. states in August, and the unemployment rate rose in 18, a sign progress in the labor market remains uneven.
The same can be said for employment in Europe. It needs to get much better so the world’s largest trading bloc can help propel the whole darn thing forward. Yep! I need a vacation!
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
