U.S. stock market is far from “oversold”.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above its highs of the previous 6 weeks on 9/25/13.

The S&P 500 has fallen for 5 consecutive trading days following the Fed’s QE continuation announcement a week earlier. The stock market is far from “oversold” according to most technical indicators. So far, this decline is only a minor pullback that has failed to generate impressive downside momentum. Daily intraday rally attempts are even less impressive, however, so the path of least resistance appears to be down for the short term.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,692.77, down 0.27%) fell below its lows of the previous 6 trading days in the first 41 minutes on Wednesday morning. The market tried to reverse to the upside before noon, but the attempt collapsed in the afternoon, much like it did on Tuesday. SPX again closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, below the closing prices of the previous 7 trading days, but still above its widely-watched 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

NYSE total volume fell 2% to a level 7% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both finished about unchanged on Wednesday. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish), while the Advance-Decline Line remains bullish above its 50-day SMA and above its 200-day SMA.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA, but Relative Strength has turned lower since then. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price remains systematically bullish.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price remains systematically bullish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/11/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Price is currently slightly above its 50-day SMA, which is neutral, but price could easily slip back below its 50-day SMA, which would make it systematically bearish again., DBA price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.90% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.28% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
3.57% , GCI , GANNETT
2.58% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.77% , NE , NOBLE
2.60% , AZO , AUTOZONE
3.92% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
2.17% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
0.95% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
1.40% , X , US STEEL CORP
1.22% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
2.21% , SVU , SUPERVALU
1.50% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
2.77% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
1.01% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.91% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
0.17% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.36% , TYC , TYCO INTL
1.57% , MET , METLIFE
1.09% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
0.43% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
0.61% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
2.74% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.75% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
1.42% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
0.78% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
0.75% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
0.45% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
1.52% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
0.15% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.65% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.25% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.09% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.96% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-3.66% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
-6.40% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-2.88% , SYK , STRYKER
-2.01% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-3.56% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.61% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.45% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-2.37% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
-2.00% , AMGN , AMGEN
-0.25% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.10% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.01% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.00% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.27% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.20% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.65% , VFC , VF
-1.29% , GPS , GAP
-0.45% , IWF , Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.82% , PX , PRAXAIR
-0.96% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.05% , TGT , TARGET
-1.06% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.92% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
-0.91% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.61% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.73% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
-1.12% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.73% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.65% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.66% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-0.80% , COST , COSTCO WHOLESAL
-0.29% , IVV , S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.90% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.79% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.14% , Spain Index, EWP
0.95% , Austria Index, EWO
0.89% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.55% , Italy Index, EWI
0.55% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.47% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.43% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.43% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.41% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.38% , Germany Index, EWG
0.38% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.37% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.34% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.33% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.32% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.31% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.31% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.29% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.29% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.28% , Russia MV, RSX
0.27% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.27% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.26% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.26% , France Index, EWQ
0.25% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.25% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.23% , Australia Index, EWA
0.23% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.23% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.22% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.22% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.21% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.19% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.19% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.18% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.18% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.17% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.16% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.16% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.15% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.15% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.14% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.13% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.12% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.12% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.11% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.10% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.09% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.09% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.09% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.08% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.07% , Energy Global, IXC
0.07% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.06% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.06% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.04% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.04% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.04% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.04% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.04% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.02% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Global 100, IOO
-0.02% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.03% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.04% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.04% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.06% , India PS, PIN
-0.06% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.06% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.07% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.08% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.09% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.09% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.11% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.11% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.11% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.12% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.13% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.14% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.14% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.15% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.16% , Networking, IGN
-0.17% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.17% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.18% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.19% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.21% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.21% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.21% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.22% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.22% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.23% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.25% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.25% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.26% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.27% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.29% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.29% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.29% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.29% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.30% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.34% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.35% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.36% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.36% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.37% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.38% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.40% , Dividend International, PID
-0.41% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.42% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.42% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.43% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.45% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.45% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.50% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.51% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.59% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.61% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.61% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.61% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.62% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.68% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.70% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.76% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.78% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.84% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.84% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.86% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.91% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.06% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.10% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.26% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.28% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.32% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.41% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-2.35% , Indonesia MV, IDX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1691.88, low of 9/25/2013
1691.70, low of 9/16/2013
1689.97, high of 9/12/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1649.77, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1586.79, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009