U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 11 months on 9/27/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 9/27/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.
The S&P 500 turned down again on Friday. It has declined 6 of the past 7 trading days following the Fed’s QE continuation announcement on 9/18/13. Intraday rally attempts have shown relatively low volume and have fizzled. After a 4-year run, it appears as though the old bull does not have much left. The path of least resistance appears to be bearish for the short term.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,691.75, down 0.41%) gapped down and fell further in the first 32 minutes on Friday morning, making its low of the day. SPX spent the bulk of the day consolidating the overnight loss. SPX closed slightly above the open, slightly above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, below the closing price of the previous trading day, but still above its widely-watched 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
NYSE total volume rose 7% to a level 12% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both fell on Friday. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish), while the Advance-Decline Line has remained bullish above its 50-day SMA and above its 200-day SMA for 2 weeks.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 9/27/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/9/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 when it whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/9/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 11 months on 9/27/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/11/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Price is currently slightly above its 50-day SMA, which is neutral, but price could easily slip back below its 50-day SMA, which would make it systematically bearish again., DBA price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
4.69% , NKE , NIKE STK B
2.79% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
2.45% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.88% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.31% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
2.05% , TWX , TIME WARNER INC
0.25% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.28% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
1.10% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
0.50% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
1.19% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
1.15% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.89% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
0.14% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.84% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
1.45% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
0.06% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.67% , CTAS , CINTAS
1.26% , PFE , PFIZER
0.23% , INTU , INTUIT
0.14% , DHR , DANAHER
0.67% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
0.26% , ZION , ZIONS
0.04% , MTB , M&T BANK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.75% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-11.11% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-13.15% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-6.97% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-3.91% , IP , INTL PAPER
-4.03% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-0.45% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-3.98% , MBI , MBIA
-3.80% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
-2.59% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-0.55% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-1.03% , BLL , BALL
-0.47% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-1.56% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.30% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.73% , IBM , IBM
-2.41% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-2.43% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-1.18% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
-3.13% , X , US STEEL CORP
-1.91% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-1.44% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.85% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
-1.02% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-1.28% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-0.47% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-1.54% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.86% , UNP , UNION PACIFIC
-0.51% , VIG , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.88% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.84% , SSO , Ultra S&P500 Double, SSO
-1.10% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.69% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.92% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.80% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.73% , Austria Index, EWO
0.48% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.48% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.40% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.29% , Germany Index, EWG
0.25% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.24% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.19% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.18% , France Index, EWQ
0.14% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.11% , Canada Index, EWC
0.11% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.07% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.06% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.03% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.02% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.00% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.02% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.05% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.07% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.08% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.11% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.11% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.13% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.13% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.13% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.14% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.15% , Global 100, IOO
-0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.22% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.23% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.23% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.24% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.25% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.25% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.27% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.27% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.27% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.30% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.30% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.30% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.32% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.32% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.34% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.34% , Dividend International, PID
-0.35% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.35% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.35% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.36% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.36% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.37% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.37% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.37% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.38% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.38% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.38% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.40% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.40% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.40% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.40% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.40% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.41% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.41% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.41% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.42% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.42% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.42% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.42% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.42% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.42% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.42% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.42% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.42% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.43% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.45% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.45% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.45% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.45% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.45% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.46% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.46% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.46% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.47% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.47% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.47% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.48% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.48% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.49% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.49% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.50% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.51% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.51% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.52% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.53% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.54% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.54% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.55% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.57% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.59% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.61% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.61% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.62% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.62% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.62% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.62% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.62% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.63% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.64% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.64% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.65% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.66% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.67% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.68% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.69% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.70% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.72% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.74% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.74% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.75% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.75% , Networking, IGN
-0.80% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-1.13% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.16% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-1.16% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-1.20% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.36% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.39% , Italy Index, EWI
-1.42% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.48% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.57% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.82% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.82% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.92% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.97% , Mexico Index, EWW
-2.83% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-3.52% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-4.03% , India PS, PIN
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, low of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1680.18, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1589.51, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
