* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
Today is the day the market place gets the results of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting, which began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday at midday. There will be no press conference by Fed Chairman Bernanke after this meeting. The FOMC is expected to leave its very accommodative U.S. monetary policy unchanged, but as usual traders and investors will be closely parsing the FOMC statement, looking for any clues on the timing of upcoming changes in policy. The sense of the market place presently is that the Fed will not start to cut back on its monthly bond purchases (quantitative easing) until early next year—most likely the second quarter at the earliest. This scenario is bullish for the raw commodity market bulls, including the precious metals markets. However, any hints in the FOMC statement Wednesday afternoon that the “tapering” of monetary policy could come sooner than the second quarter of 2014 would likely be bearish for most markets. Any surprises coming from the FOMC statement Wednesday afternoon could cause brief volatility in many markets. There is also other key U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday, including the ADP national employment report, real earnings and the consumer price index. Economic data coming out of Europe this week has been mostly upbeat, but has also been overshadowed by anticipation ahead of the FOMC statement. The rise in short-term interest rates in China remains a bit of a worry to the world market place. China is the second-largest world economy and a voracious consumer of raw commodities. Any significant changes in Chinese monetary policy—especially tightening of it–would impact world markets.–Jim Wyckoff
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and once gain hit a record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 1,773.10 and then at 1,785.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,766.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,752.00. Sell stops re likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,415.00 and then at 3,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,384.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 3,368.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a new record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,700 and then at 15,750. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,600 and then at Tuesday’s low of 15,545. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near a four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 135 24/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 8/32 and then at 134 30/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh four-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 127.30.0 and then at 128.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 127.21.5 and then at this week’s low of 127.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. Bears remain in overall near-term technical control. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.755 and then at 80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.500 and then at Tuesday’s low of 79.340. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In December Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $97.82 and then at Tuesday’s high of $98.57. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $97.00 and then at $96.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Markets were firmer overnight on short covering following recent selling pressure. There has been very good U.S. harvest progress and that has been bearish for corn and soybeans. That weakness in corn and soybeans has spilled over into the wheat market. Rain is coming to the Corn Belt, which will delay harvesting, but not likely be a major market factor. Grain market traders continue to watch for fresh export demand for U.S. grains. Corn is getting cheap enough that it is drawing attention from world corn importers. Technically, the corn bears are in firm command, soybean bulls and bears are now on a level near-term technical playing field, while soybean and wheat bulls are even.
